Brandon Ingram Discussion: He Is Who We Thought He Could Be

2017-18 Recap

Moved to LB Analytics, as it's a lot of stats.

http://lakersball.com/threads/season-recap.3061/

 

You know, I guess this isn't the right place for this. Sorry. Hold on...

 

Not sure where to post this, so here it is.

 

As an exercise this morning, I thought I'd look into the type of expectations we should have for Brandon Ingram moving forward this season. To determine what we should expect, I looked into the seasons of other swing men at this stage in their career. We hear a lot about a jump in the 3rd year for players who are likely to be big time contributors and I wanted to see how that held up and if Brandon is on that path. Here's what I found:

Paul George sophomore season (21 yo):
12.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.6 blocks, 29.7 mpg, (44/38.5/80) 42 wins
Paul George 3rd season (22 yo):
17.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 37.6 mpg, (41.9/36.2/80.7) 49 wins

Jimmy Butler sophomore season (23 yo):
8.6 points, 4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal, 0.4 blocks, 26 mpg, (46.7/38.1/80.3) 45 wins
Jimmy Butler 3rd season (24 yo):
13.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.5 blocks, 38.7 mpg, (39.7/28.3/76.9) 48 wins

Gordon Hayward sophomore season (21 yo):
11.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 30.5 mpg, (45.6/34.6/83.2) 36 wins
Gordon Hayward 3rd season (22 yo):
14.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 29.2 mpg (43.5/41.5/82.7) 43 wins

Klay Thompson sophomore season (22 yo):
16.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal, 0.5 blocks, 35.8 mpg (42.2/40.1/84.1) 47 wins
Klay Thompson 3rd season (23 yo):
18.4 points, 3.1 rebounds , 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks, 35.4 mpg (44.4/41.7/79.5) 51 wins

DeMar Derozan sophomore season (21 yo):
17.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1 steal, 0.4 blocks, 34.8 mpg (46.7/9.6/81.3) 22 wins
DeMar Dorozan 3rd season (22 yo):
16.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, 35 mpg (42.2/26.1/81) 23 wins

Andre Iguodala sophomore season (22 yo):
12.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, 37.6 mpg (50/35.4/75.4) 38 wins
Andre Iguodala 3rd season (23 yo):
18.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2 steals, 0.4 blocks, 40.3 mpg (44.7/31/82) 35 wins

Kawhi Leonard sophomore season (21 yo):
11.9 points, 6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 31.2 mpg (49.4/37.4/82.5) 58 wins
Kawhi Leonard 3rd season (22 yo):
12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.8 blocks, 29.1 mpg (52.2/37.9/80.2) 62 wins

Kevin Durant sophomore season (20 yo):
25.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks, 39 mpg (47.6/42.2/86.3) 23 wins
Kevin Durant 3rd season (21 yo):
30.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 1 block, 39.5 mpg (47.6/36.5/90) 50 wins

Brandon Ingram sophomore season (20 yo):
16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, 33.5 mpg (47/39/68.1) 35 wins

What I noticed in the numbers was a dramatic increase typically in minutes and shot attempts from the 2nd to 3rd season. Jimmy Butler and Gordon Hayward both had fairly slow, but steady growth. Klay and DeMar took a bigger jump from their rookie to sophomore seasons.

I think it's safe to say at this point that Ingram is not Durant. Durant in his third season lead the league in minutes played, field goal attempts, field goal misses, field goal makes, points total, and of course points per game. I think Ingram just has a different mentality than Durant does. Ingram is more demure and understated, but Durant is a killer.

Kawhi interestingly didn't make his scoring jump really until his 5th season. This is most probably due to the Spurs not needing that scoring punch from 2011-2015. They obviously were able to bring Kawhi on very slowly and steadily in terms of responsibilities. It's also clear that Kawhi is a more natural defender than Ingram is.

To me, the closest comparison in terms of the jump we should expect is probably something between Paul George and Klay Thompson. I think George is a better defender, but Ingram has shown to be a little better of a scorer at this stage. Paul's jump in scoring his 3rd season is only 1.5 above Ingram's sophomore season. Klay is probably more of a comparable defender to Ingram, although I think Klay is a little more perimeter oriented where Ingram's length makes it easier for him to challenge shots.

I can't imagine Ingram's scoring picking up dramatically, especially if we have the type of summer we want to have, but he should be able to improve his efficiency, his consistent energy levels, and his defensive impact. I think a realistic goal and estimate for Ingram should be:

18.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1 steal, 0.8 blocks, 35 mpg (49/40.5/76.5)

That's a modest improvement in most areas, but most importantly an improvement in the efficiency aspect of the game. He already made a solid leap in shot attempts, now it'll be about making those attempts mean something instead of just shooting the ball. These numbers put him at a borderline All-star level, but that's not something I'm that concerned with. I'm more concerned with what our record is and how well Ingram is able to carry the team. He's not exactly a vocal leader and it appears we don't have anyone who fits that bill outside of maybe Kuzma. If Ingram wants to take the next step in his game, it won't be by scoring 20+ points, it'll be by dissecting the defenses and pushing the team forward with reliable play night in and night out.

Soon I'll do an analysis on his shot types, what he needs to work on, and where his biggest improvements might be. It'll be very similar to what LFR is doing right now with his video essays, but I'll use the numbers instead. Hopefully I can work out a little video clips or gifs to illustrate what I'm talking about.

 

Can't wait for the further analysis that you have planned. Safe to say, Ingram should be a keeper.

 

Link to article:



Video:

 

Great stuff from Pete here.

I'll use his video and piggy back in with the numbers I was going to use because he does a better job illustrating than I can. Like I said in my previous post: Ingram's next step doesn't come necessarily on volume, but on smarter shots and increased efficiency. I think Pete and I are on the same page pretty much. He accurately points out the specific shots that Ingram needs to improve (pull up jumper specifically will be key). Here's what Ingram did last season.

AT THE RIM:
In his rookie season, Ingram shot 60.7% at the rim, taking 27.8% of his shots in that area.
In his 2nd season, Ingram shot 67.3% at the rim, taking 37.3% of his shots in that area.

As Pete pointed out in the video, Ingram got the rim much easier and thanks to an off-season of training and getting stronger, was able to hit at a much higher percentage. The key here again isn't necessarily volume. I think he could increase the % of shots he takes at the rim, but more importantly he should be smarter on his drives and read the defense better.

Another note:
Here's Ingram's dunk and layup breakdown-

Rookie season: 4.7% of his shots were dunks (he shot 93.8% on them)
Rookie season: 24.5% of his shots were layups (he shot just 52.4% on them)

2nd season: 7.4% of his shots were dunks (he shot 94.6% on them)
2nd season: 36.1% of his shots were layups (he shot just 52.4% on them)

If he were to make more of an effort to be aggressive at the rim, I believe his efficiency would improve. He often takes an initiates contact, but it's rare when BI really goes at the rim with the intent to dunk on someone like we've seen Lonzo and especially Kuzma do. In his third year I expect more aggression.

3-10 FOOT RANGE:
In his rookie season, Ingram shot just 29.6% from this distance, taking 14.3% of his shots there.
In his 2nd season, Ingram shot even worse at 20.5% from this distance, taking 15.4% of his shots there.

I separated this out because it's the worst area on the floor for Brandon by far. This 3 to 10 foot range is generally where Ingram looked lost. Either he couldn't get all the way to the rim or he was bumped off of his spot. Developing a floater would be great here. Working with Kuzma on those hooks around this area would be helpful. More importantly, it would be most helpful to take less shots in this area. Work on getting to the rim and finishing hard at the basket or if the lane isn't there, take the mid-range jumper.

MID RANGE JUMPERS:
In his rookie season, Ingram shot just 36.2% on mid range jumpers, taking 30.6% of his shots from 10 feet to the 3PT line.
In his 2nd season, Ingram shot just 40% on his mid range jumpers, taking 33.5% of his shots from 10 feet to the 3PT line.

This to me is probably the most ripe area for improvement. I don't necessarily want him taking a third of his shots in the mid range area since we all know that's not where the most points can be had, but for a player like Ingram, this is a place where he needs to be deadly efficient. Teams already know he wants to get the rim and as Pete showed, they play him that way. If Ingram can develop that same type of rocking jumper that Durant uses, this can be a great weapon for him. I expect these numbers to look more like 45-46% in efficiency with hopefully more towards the 30% range in shots taken in this range.

THREE POINTERS:
In his rookie season, Ingram shot just 29.3% from deep, with 27.4% of his shots coming from that area.
In his 2nd season, Ingram shot 39% from deep, with only 13.8% of his shots coming from that area.

I expect him to take a lot more threes next season. Last season Paul George took 49% of his shots from outside and Durant took 39.9% of his shots from that distance. When you shoot at a solid clip like Ingram did last year, you have to utilize that more often. If we acquire Paul George and/or LeBron James, there'll be a lot more open looks and a lot more catch-and-shoot type jumpers available for Ingram on the perimeter. I expect his three point attempts to be much closer to his rookie season in terms of volume with hopefully similar success although I could see it dipping just a little bit. Something like 37% from deep, but taking 30% of his shots from out there would be fantastic.

OVERALL:

Brandon needs to improve a bit at finding his spots, not forcing the action, and reading what the defenses are giving him and taking advantage. I'm really hoping to see Ingram be aggressive and angry going at the rim. He needs to dunk everything and if not, use his length to gain space for a jumper. I have faith Brandon will make these leaps given what we've seen just from year to year. I'm not sure there's another player on our roster that knows his own strengths and weaknesses like Ingram does.

 

I’m confidant BI can match if not surpass KD on D. No way he will ever reach his level as a scorer. Only a handful ever will.

 

Ingram vs Kuz in college