Not really. You are missing mine. Saying that our dept. is good means they outperform others (or average if you will). Based on the above it is not clear to me. I can't be assed into checking this, but if you were to compare our average output at a certain draft position (say, #7 us expected to be 1 All Star and 12 year career, on average) we'd be right there (coincidentally, that's Randle). Saying good is consistently drafting value. AR is an example of value (even if undrafted, consider him pick #60). Zubac is value. Brian Cook isn't. Nor is Crittenton.
That's my point. We do pretty much like everyone else, IMO, so all that high praise for the drafting/scouting dept. is based on a very small success sample, IMO.
BI was a #2 pick. I damn well expect him to be a starter, but I'd argue that for his draft position he is a semi-bust (with Darko being a super-bust and Zo being a bust). A nothing player, again, relatively to his draft position. Hart and Zubac are fine. But there were a LOT of picks at same position who flamed out. So it's all averages to mediocre, much like the entire league, IMO.
You’re missing the lesson of your own lists, imo. We have generally outperformed expected pick value. Your expected value is off. https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm I’d argue the top of the draft is noisier, too, as that’s where teams gamble on potential the most, weirdly enough. anyway, nance, Zubac, hart, kuz are all solid/role player—to find one at pick 25 or later is 1 in 5 odds. Throw Wagner in, and we’re 5-5 in that draft position, vastly outperforming expectations.
Yeah, disagree about vastly outperforming. At 25, possible. At like 20, probably not. And vastly underperforming at #2, which we have had 3!!!!! To me, drafting value in 25 is "easier", because you are allowed to gamble more and thus have higher picks and lower lows (IMO). It's at the 15th where the gonads start shrinking and so far, we haven't had enough of those to be statistically significant. JHS will prove me wrong, though.
There’s no disagreeing with the numbers. 100% success rate where the average is 20%. Even the #2 picks you bemoan are about at average (2/3 with all star appearances). if jhs never plays another game, we’re still killing the odds. The lesson isn’t that we’re not good at drafting; it’s that the draft sucks most of the time.
