Why do we believe that the thing that Julius failed to do for any one-month stretch last season (shoot 48%) will suddenly become his new average? He never averaged 13 PPG in a month, and he never shot 48% in a month (but he got very close). BTW, 42.9% sounds low, and it isn't good, but across the league last season it was in the first deviation below the mean, meaning it was within the league average: 66.3-72.2% was four SDs above (I think DeAndre Jordan was the 1 player here) 60.3-66.2% was three SDs above (2% of players were in this range) 54.3-60.2% was two SDs above (7% of players were in this range) 48.4-54.2% was one SD above (16% of players were in this range) 42.4-48.3% was the mean (43% of players were in this range) 36.4-42.3 was one SD below (29% of players were in this range) 30.4-36.3 was two SD below (4% of players were in this range)
I said I hoped and would be ecstatic, not I believe it will happen. I do believe he'll improve quite a bit though and I believe it's a possibility.
I dont thinks strange at all. I think you're missing my point. Yes Porzingis is weak and Randle is definitely stronger, but he's so much more raw it's easy to see why he's less efficient. I wasn't saying they have similar games or body types, but I'm making the point that a lot of YOUNG power forwards struggle to score efficiently. While Porzingis isn't as strong as Julius he has a huge size advantage which also has to be accounted for. Julius is not only raw, but he's undersized and that takes awhile to be able to learn how to score in this league when you're undersized. It's not like Porzingis is strictly a jump shooter. He drives plenty as well he just has trouble finishing inside. Again that's something young guys like him need to get adjusted to just like Randle being undersized needs to be able to learn how to finish better.
I'd say adjustment and growth? It's not rare that 2nd year players improve their efficiency drastically.
what I do is tape a piece of gum to a paper airplane and just throw it at the wall. I have little pencil marks for each ppg total.
My projections are never based in reality. What fun would that be? Like a typical fan, I try to project positively the best I think a person can be at this particular stage and root for that. I also try not to shoot too high to give some margin for error so as to not set up somebody for failure. ( although that is only in my mind LOL ) It's easy to get caught up in statistics when the reality is some players can help dominate a game without great statistics. We all have a certain predisposition to what defines progress or excellence, and along with our blind fan homerism, slowly project our homegrown talent in that direction. Ultimately what matters to me is playing the game the right way with teamwork, effort, and increasing skill levels as the season progresses. I can enjoy our team playing with those things in place even if we lose. With Byron coaching, it was hard to see any progress in any facet of the game whatsoever, and it was a miserable two seasons. Thank the Lord that is over!
Randle reminds me of a blend of Chris Webber and Larry "Grandma-ma" Johnson. Although I've often been accused of looking at things through Lakers covered glasses.
I don't have all the stats that you'd want in order to evaluate the claim, but here is the average FG% of players who were rookies over the past 5 seasons. 43.3 42.0 44.7 44.6 45.1 --Mild improvement, but it's not much. And while the trend is away from players averaging < 36% shooting (from 15% of rookies and sophomores to about 5% of players in years 4/5), that's about where the numbers stop shifting. 4% of rookies shot 56%+, and 5% of players were shooting that by year 5. 19% of rookies shot 49-55%, and that percent was about 20% for players by year 5.
I looked at just the top five players drafted over the past few years to gather these stats: 2011 Rookies 469-452 -17 412-430 -18 496-544 +48 (shot 54% after the ASB) 439-488 +49 (shot only 444 after the ASB) 557-531 -26 Average: +0.7% FGs 2 of 5 improved 2 of 5 made the big jump, but notice that one of them was already in the + range to start. 1 of them made the jump without the good post ASB jump, too. 2012 Rookies 516-519 +3 458-473 +15 410-419 +9 412-433 +21 430-481 +51 (shot 44% after the ASB) Average: +2.0% FGs 5 of 5 improved 1 of 5 made the big jump 1 of them made the jump without the good post ASG jump, too. 2013 Rookies 356-421 +65 (Played minimal minutes both years, shot 47% post ASB) 419-436 +17 (played minimal minutes as a rookie, shot 47% post ASB) 363*-450+87 (shot 51% post ASB) 426-461 +35 (minimal minutes as a rookie, but low post ASB FG%) 423*-507 -80 Average: +2.5% FGs 4 of 5 improved 2 of 5 made the big jump none of them did it in similar circumstances to Randle 2014 Rookies 437-459 +18 490-493 +3 DNP 447-473 +26 DNP Average: +1.6% FGs 3 of 3 improved 0 of 3 made the big jump 14 of 17 players improved from year 1 to year 2. They improved an average of 1.6% on FGs. 3 of 17 made the big jump <+3.0% increase in FG%. 1 of 17 made the big jump while playing in heavy minutes as a rookie (600+), without shooting well after the ASB. So, if you were a gambling dude and had to put money on the odds that Julius will shoot 48% next year, 6% should probably be your starting odds.
So where does that put Julius? He shot 41.7% pre-ASB and 45.3% post-ASB right? I think there are 2 things to consider.... 1. Playing for Luke and the GSW system. He's going from the worst offensive systems in the league to one of the best. Take a guy like Draymond for example. He shot 40.7% playing for Mark Jackson in 2013-14 and 44.3% playing for Kerr in 2014-15. 2. Injury in rookie season. Closest comparison to Julius' situation would be Blake Griffin. He shot 50.6% in his "rookie" season (technically second year) and 54.9% the year after. All things considered I don't think it's crazy to think Randle's FG% could go up by 5% next year.
Another thing people aren't talking about much, with the floor spacing and movement were gonna implement, Julius gonna have(hopefully) a lot more room to drive in the paint. He going to have the potential to have a scary good second year from system,spacing and personal drawn up plays for him to succeed.
Julius is probably the guy I'm most excited to see. We know Ingram isn't ready to be a major contributor yet, we know Nance is just a really solid all around player, we know Russell looks much improved, and Julius is the one guy we haven't seen as much as some of those other guys this offseason. He works as hard as anyone. People keep talking about Julius' lack of a jump shot and just overall being raw offensively along with the defensive issues. Those are fair criticisms, however there are countless big guys who come in with the same issues. Julius obviously is a long way away from where he needs to be and I believe can be, but the guy has a high, high ceiling. He's got the athleticism and speed for someone his size to at the very least be someone teams have to game plan for. What I love about Julius is he goes after the ball on the boards, he doesn't wait he chases after and gets those rebounds. I also love that he doesn't back down from a challenge now sometimes that gets Julius in trouble, but think back to opening night when KG was barking at him and trying to bully him and the young guy was having none of it. He's gone at Draymond Green I believe in pre-season too. He's got that dog and competitor in him that you just can't teach. Yeah he does make you scratch your head with some of the plays he makes, but that's no different than how it is with any other young player. I've seen Russell make some horrible decisions on the court that make me shake my head or face palm, it is just part of what these kids go through. They make dumb mistakes and you hope they learn from it. Randle is just not the type of guy who's gonna just be content with being an okay player. He's a guy who wants to be great and there is no reason he can't be one heck of a basketball player. Yeah it may be difficult to see Julius be Draymond Green now, but who the hell thought Draymond would be Draymond three years ago? The guy was a second round pick for a reason. Nobody believed in him and every team passed on him at least once. I'm not saying Julius will be Draymond, but he can be a special player in this league. Julius is tough, he gets after it, plays with energy, and in the second half of the season you saw a different player. He started to move the ball, he started to not be so reckless in transition, he started to make more right basketball plays, and if he just builds on that I think he'll have a find second season. This kid averaged 15 and 13 per 36. Sorry Boston you f***ed up.
Haven't watched the footage yet, sounds like I need to. He's taking names down there .... especially against lesser players? I did see something of him at least using his right hand on one shot down low. You can do it .... Lotus Flower. Make us excited all over again at LB for you. :JuliusPumped 1:
