Brandon Ingram Discussion: He Is Who We Thought He Could Be

Discussion in 'NBA Discussion' started by Lakers2015, Jun 23, 2016.

  1. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    How is listing scenarios claiming one is a genius?

    KD/Klay
    KD/Kemba
    KD/Khris
    KD/Kyrie
    KD/Butler
    KD/Kawhi
    KD/Butler
    KD/Brogdon
    KD/PG
    KD/Harris
    KD/DLo

    Kawhi/PG
    Kawhi/Klay
    Kawhi/Kemba
    Kawhi/Kyrie

    etc.

    My point being even if you eliminate half of these permutations due to incompatibility in terms of fit or desire to play together... there still are several combinations one could find where you pair two elite agents and keep most of your team and draft picks. Maybe most aren't as good as AD/LBJ but there are several that might have worked while keeping more depth and flexibility.

    We signed LBJ... not many seemed to want to play with him... there was the Klutch factor to consider so we eliminate a 100 possibilities and narrow them to one. All I said is there were many ways to play this but by being under the influence of one agency there really only became one way in terms of having two elites and keeping depth.

    No one's claiming to be a genius, I'm only saying we had choices if our hands weren't tied.
     
  2. Kenzo

    Kenzo - Lakers All Star -

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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    That’s not my argument. I’ll post when I’m on my laptop.
     
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  4. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I've got to run. I'm on my way to teach a practical logic course in how to apply logic to real world situations. :wink:

    There are a bunch of different ways to model decisions. One way is to set an expected value by considering the likelihood of the outcome multiplied by the value if it comes to fruition.

    Outcome value x Likelihood
    LeBron at his best was ridiculously good.
    But, as I've argued elsewhere, last season he had arguably his worst season since perhaps his rookie year. He has mileague like few ever have. He missed 27 games last year, and he's been mortal the past several seasons, missing games with and without injury. He's now 35. Still, LeBron at his worst is really good. But once Kobe fell off, he was bad. So, you set a value that you see LeBron as worth, this year and over the life of his contract/career.

    You do the same with AD. Gargantuan talent. Misses a lot of time. Not a winner.

    Some good numbers players don't convert to wins. Some do. So, you have to speculate about the synergistic effects of two players playing together who have perhaps never played together (AD/LBJ).

    You do the same with all of the assets in the trade.

    And then you compare. That's the ex ante approach.

    But here's why the ex ante approach can't be right.

    You see an Astrovan for sale for $500. It looks like garbage. But you are an expert at fixing these vans. You know that if you can get it into running shape and it's like most Astrovans are, you can keep it running for another three years or so with minimal outlay of cash. You place the value of a running car for three years at about $6000 (I'm making things up here), with a cheap monthly payment on a newer car.

    So, you think that if the cost of the repair and upkeep is less than 5500, it's a good deal.

    That's ex ante.

    Subjective vs. Objective Probability
    But you could set your subjective probability at a level that is massively different from the objective probability. You might think that catastrophic problems with the van are more or less likely than they actually are.

    Humans are really bad at figuring out probabilities in even some easy cases. For instance, if I flip two coins and tell you that at least one is a heads and ask you what the odds are that they both are, you probably think it's 50/50, but it's actually 1 in 3.

    Overestimating a probability by even that much (33% vs 50%) would mean that you'd be making a bad trade, by your own standards.

    So, if we "just go by the available evidence," we might be culpably ignorant. There might be stuff that we should know before making the decision that we don't know.

    1. Subjective probability might vary greatly from objective probability of outcome X.

    2. Value of outcome X might be inappropriately appraised.

    3. Sometime we're culpable (blameworthy) for our ignorance, but sometimes we're not.

    These three facts suggest that the outcomes CAN matter - like if they reveal things we didn't know but should have known. Not all trades can be evaluated fully ex ante. Whether the Lakers' moves fall into that camp is something I'm not sure about. BTW, I know James wasn't a trade.
     
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  5. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Once you got LeBron, AD was probably the right move. But I object to earlier moves. Just so my position is clear.
     
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  6. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    can't you factor in your mechanic skills in the first case? that's what i was getting at re: foreseeable issues. i feel similarly about the second set of proposed issues--particularly point #3. if say, AD went down with a career-ending knee injury that could/should/was noted by the team prior to/during the trade, that gets factored into evaluating the decision. but that's not the case here. if we find out he had an underlying issue (heart condition?) that nobody ever detected or could have reasonably suspected, that doesn't suddenly make the decision to trade for him a bad one. if so, it makes all decisions bad ones, always, really.

    me too. despite some things that were bad decisions ending up with positive or neutral outcomes.

    it's like when people claimed that we got hart and kuzma for russell. no--we got two late 1st round draft picks upon which we happened to hit. now, going back to your points, can you factor in that we have a recent history of making good picks later in the first round as part of that decision analysis? sure. still doesn't swing it for me, but it's also still not about outcomes.
     
  7. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    I don't think we had an option for the top tier players once we signed LBJ/Klutch... it was AD or bust which put us at an enormous bargaining disadvantage
    I think two elites plus some youngsters and draft picks would have been a better outcome than
    AD/LBJ plus Kuzma and random signings.
    I do give the front office credit for recovering nicely from the Kawhi fiasco... but a lot of this was dumb luck in terms of Dwight falling into our laps.
    I think Klutch dictated the LBJ/AD pairing and that put us in a tough spot.
    Now that we're here, I'm rooting for this team wholeheartedly but I fear the long term outcome of this play.
     
  8. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    no fear of long-term outcomes on a kawhi signing? that injury is a) known and b) no joke.
     
  9. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    Kawhi wouldn't have cost us the entire core and draft picks.
    You sign him and then we'd be like the Clippers except with LBJ/Kawhi and BI/Lonzo/Kuzma/Hart/Mo/Bonga and our picks intact.
    Once Klutch got involved our tunnel vision focused on AD first.
    I mean obviously Kawhi wasn't too hot on playing with LBJ but that's the type of outcome that would have been preferable.
     
  10. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I think you must factor in your mechanic skills. And you might culpably under/overestimate them.

    I think LA did something like this with Russell. They thought he was broken rather than he was being held back. And I think their belief was culpable. It may have been Magic’s fault entirely btw.

    You say it’s not about results. I just say results can matter. Not that they always make the difference.
     
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  11. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    Two elites? Until Lebron came NO elites were giving us the time of day. What the heck. Why I laughed at your hypothetical 100 ways or combinations (when you said it) you could have done that.
     
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  12. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    I think PG was headed our way, and then once LBJ became available, the front office dropped him like a high school kid would his girlfriend once the homecoming queen showed him some interest.
    PG plus Kawhi and most of the young core and picks would have been a better outcome.
     
  13. Khmrp

    Khmrp - Lakers Legend -

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    I object to post AD moves too, yeah we had to move players for cap for Leonard but it could've been done AFTER his decision...I feel throwing in Hart was just so Rob could absolutely guarantee he'd be in the running with cap space for Leonard. Most team gm's dont make move till they know its a done deal, Morey for example didn't even have cap space 4 Cp3 but he didn't force himself to create the cap space either until Cp3 was in the bag. Hart, Wagner weren't game changers but they would'v at least given us more depth...sort like how Dlo did with Minn, Minn had "plans" to make cap clearing moves IF he said yes but they didn't pre-emptively do moves to clear the cap and in hindsight they'd be SOL right now since Dlo ended up with GSW instead.
     
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  14. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    i think no way PG was coming here once we didn't trade for him.

    agree with khmrp on timing of dumps: you can generally find places to move small salaries if need be. i think the lakers simply thought those guys weren't that good and could be replaced at cost with vets in the short term. long term, doesn't matter, as none will be a big impact guy. that read is probably right, but again, you could keep your options open. would things be slightly better with wagner over dudley right now? maybe, but i'm not even positive about it.
     
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  15. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    If you could get PG to sign in OKC, you could get him to come to the Lakers.
    Come on guys, this is the best organization in basketball in terms of history.
    We are going through a rough spot in terms of management but you can't tell me we couldn't have got PG to come to LA if we put our heart and soul into it.
    We are on Klutch auto pilot right now, and as long as they keep winning I suppose you can't complain, but we need LBJ to retire when he starts his decline rather than a long drawn out farewell tour, and we need to replace him with the best possible candidate and not the Klutch approved heir apparent.
     
  16. wallangong

    wallangong - Lakers 6th Man -

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    What exactly is “putting you heart and soul into it?” I honestly don’t know what you’re suggesting. Clearly being the historically best franchise wasn’t enough to sway him, so what is this heart and soul going to do? Ask him pretty please?

    You’re pining over things that are 2 years out and about a million variables in between. If “Klutch auto pilot” results in an 80% winning percentage, AD, and competing for the next few years, then I’m just gonna sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight.
     
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  17. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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  18. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    All this happy HS again.




    Hypothetical Stuff.


    :Fishwink:
     
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  19. 432J

    432J - Lakers All Star -

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    yeah PG wasn't coming to the lakers because he was insulted that they didn't try to trade their entire core for him
     
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  20. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    BI with 28 points +18 in a victory.
    Can't say he didn't contribute to this one.

    Holiday had a good game until the end where he almost cost them the game
    BI had a terrible first half and played well at the end.

    Holiday made a lot of bonehead plays for a veteran... can't wait until Zion takes over.
     
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