Wmc 15/16: We are finally at the END! BYE BYRON!!!

Well like I said it comes down to controlling one end of the floor to me: the defensive end. If Hibbert can inspire real leadership on that end, then let the other four guys run offensively to their heart's content. It all starts on the defensive side of the ball though to me.

 

Well Byron always has said he's a defensive coach, so we'll see what happens... My faith in him is limited, but his team is better this year. We'll see what he does.

 

If he does not insist on D and doesn't develop our young players this year, he's done. This is his year -- let's see what he can do.

 

Yep. This is the year that'll basically determine if he sticks around for a while. We need three things for him to stay past this year in my opinion:

- Clear development from the three main youngsters (he's got a good track record at developing young guys at least)
- Middle of the pack defensive efficiency (I'd prefer more, but at least something respectable on this front)
- 35 wins or so. (That's only a 10 game increase and as @trodgers has pointed out a lot of bad teams can make that jump)

If he can do those things, he gets another year I think. Otherwise I think we're moving in another direction fairly quickly.

 

First point will and should happen... Second point...with Hibbert there as your anchor and three players on the perimeter with the tools to defend...higher than the median has to be expected. 35 wins is just about right but I figure one third of the wins against the West powers and more than half against the sorry East should land at that number.

I think they will surprise some opponents this year. The question is how they adjust and ramp it up further when notice is served and they are no longer considered an easy "W" on their schedule?

 

I agree with you on the points all the way realdeal, except a clarification on number 3: we only won 21 games last year. There's another thread as well on this, but we seem to have forgotten exactly how bad we were last year. TRodgers was talking about teams rebounding on an average of 9 games after terrible seasons and I do think we can do that, but that's 30 wins not 35.

That's why when guys like KB24 and me as well were guessing somewhere in the low 30s for wins this season it wasn't like we were trying to be Debbie Downers. It's a lot to expect winning fifteen more games than last year as we are currently constructed. The majority of our starting squad is either rookies or 2nd years (Randle's still basically a rook since he didn't get to play at all). And then there's Kobe who we can't even guess as to how many games/minutes he'll be able to squeeze out of himself and how well he'll do after not playing for so long and going into his 20th season. And while we're hoping Hibbert can resurrect his outstanding play of a few years ago, he hasn't been that guy for a while, so even with a change of scenery there's no guarantee there, even though what he's been saying sounds good.

I see our ceiling at being 35 wins unless Mitch waves that magic wand and gives Scott some more pieces to work with. If Scott were to get 35 wins with this squad I feel it would be slightly overachieving. And I'd be stoked for it. We'll see how it goes.

 

Oh! I was using 25 wins. Guess my brain doesn't like thinking about only 21 wins.

Still, to me 30 wins is a failure. Just way too low for a team with this much talent. The only way I see 30 wins happening is if Kobe AND one of the young guys goes down AND Hibbert shows no significant improvement from his last season in Indiana AND Young/Williams don't work out their issues on the bench.

We've got far too much talent right now to win only 30 games next season.

 

I've got to completely disagree about our level of talent and our win count. This team? 35 wins is going to be a push.

Now if Mitch makes some moves with Kelly/Young/Sacre . . . then I think we could be more competitive.

To put things in perspective, three of our five starters played together in the summer league and they were MUCH less impressive than hoped. They won 1 game and lost 4. Those are our STARTERS. They have talent but they aren't that ready yet aside from Clarkson.

 

To me 30 wins wouldn't be a failure for this team as currently constructed - to me it would be like a C grade, acceptable only. But it would kind of cement the notion that Byron is only an average coach in my mind. If he can get them up to 35 I think it would be a feat and show he deserves the gig.

Hopefully though Mitch can give him a few more legit guys to work with. The youth movement right now is just a bit overwhelming for us to expect a lot of wins.

 

We're not going to see eye to eye on this one then. Last season you realize we played with a D-League roster? Russell might not be better than Lin today, but just watching him once let me know he can be much better. Clarkson improved. Kobe is starting this season healthy instead of Wes Johnson. Nick Young was hurt most of last season, he's back. Hibbert is better at basketball than Jordan Hill. Randle is an upgrade over Boozer. The lone pieces missing that might make last season's team relevant are Ellington and Davis and we replaced them with the reigning 6th man of the year and Tarik Black.

I think we're definitely a 35 win team if we stay relatively healthy and we're definitely more than a 30 win team.

Last season ended with Dwight Buycks, the worst Summer League player in history, as one of our rotation players. I think we're a ways beyond last season.

 

Yes it is... Where do you come up with these things?

Walton will be a viable head coaching candidate in a year or two. Carlisle territory.

 

We're not way off one another - I am predicting 32 wins and hoping for more. Remember that's 11 wins more than last season, which is a lot. And basically we're splitting hairs over something that doesn't matter much in the long run because neither one of us are saying we are making the playoffs. I'm just saying if Byron gets to 30 wins that's acceptable to me, but not good. Anywhere between there and 35 is ok by me. 35 or more and I think he's done a great job with this squad.

The issue I see is that our starting lineup as it stands is just too young/too inexperienced to win a lot of games. Say what you will about Lin but he's a vet and a pro . . . Russell looks like a kid trying to learn, which he is. Randle's upside is tremendous IMO, but again, Booz is a vet who knows how to score while Randle hasn't played a single NBA game yet. These guys are babies.

And we just can't count on a lot from Kobe. It's not realistic. Dude is arguably the GOAT but he's been out of commission for two years and he's going into his 20th season out of position at the three. I just don't know what he's got left in him. I'm not betting against him - I know better than that after all these years. But I also don't know what to expect from him given his age, mileage (more importantly) and recent injury issues.

If we want to come close to winning half of our games or more I think Mitch knows darned well that he's going to have to pull off another move or two. Otherwise it's a development season, basically, as well as a Last Dog and Pony show for Kobe.