Summer League Stat Watch ( My Best Attempt!)

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by therealdeal, Jul 13, 2015.

  1. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Awesome work, TRD. Some of these things stood out to me, too, but it's always an extra bonus to see it spelled out with the numbers. I'll toss my stats down here. They're ugly.

    These guys have played such low minutes, but I'm still going to post these stats.

    Positional Efficiencies

    PG
    Russell 57
    Clarkson 51
    Buycks 11

    Wing
    J. Brown 65
    Clarkson 60
    Randle 56
    Munford 46
    Mitchell 42
    Nance 33
    A. Brown 29

    BIG
    Randle 66
    Nance 59
    Upshaw 23

    LEADERS
    Scoring: Jabari Brown 6.9, Clarkson 6.1, Munford 5.9
    Passing: Russell 3.0, Randle 2.0, Clarkson 1.9
    Hustle: Nance 3.7, Black 3.5, Mitchell 3.4

    The fact is that no one is posting a number that reflects anything of value. 60s don't cut it in the starting lineup. 70s are okay though.

    A few things that stand out:
    Buycks has been horrendous. Russell is handing out a good number of assists and scoring well enough to somewhat counter his TOs. 15/5 per 40 minutes aren't terrible pts/ast averages, and when you consider the "game plan," it's worth something at least.

    Personally, I thought JC was the best player on the court for us the first two games; then Jabari. But he's probably all offense; looking forward to seeing what Real sees from him on defense.

    Randle's numbers are way up from what they were last year (he posted like a 20 before breaking his leg), and I think he's starting to establish himself as a good all-around player. His 2.0 Passing Efficiency is probably the best stat we have on our team, position-wise.

    Nance is much better when looked at from PF metrics vs. SF metrics. His defense helps him, too, but doesn't show up in these stats.

    Upshaw's been pretty dreadful in these metrics. His impact on offense is screening, and his impact on D is shot alteration, but I think he needs to get some more touches. He's taking only 1 shot per 10 minutes on the court.
     
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  2. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Upshaw has taken only four shots in three games. FOUR shots! The guards aren't even trying to look his way. Frankly I only remember him taking two shots so the fact that he took more is surprising in itself.

    Buycks numbers are some of the worst I think you could ever ask for. In total Buycks is 0-8 from the floor with 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal... and 5 turnovers. Remember that's TOTAL for three games. Unbelievably bad. Not worth a training camp invite bad.
     
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  3. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Okay! Got off of work early and was able to get into this game! I'll preface this with with the fact that I was more lenient on my Box Out stat and gave them a point even if we didn't get possession as long as they had good box out technique. Here's what I came with for Game 3:

    Screens Setting was a world better as a team. All the really, really weak screens that Tarik threw in Game 2 connected in Game 3 this time. He connected on an incredible 22 screens compared to last game's 9 total. He did a good job of clearing space for the guards, especially Clarkson. I loved what he brought to Game 3 actually. The other great screen setter was of course Larry Nance Jr. who has absolutely terrific screen form. He set 19 Effective Screens yesterday and did a very good job of giving the guys room to operate. The only problem? He can't pick and pop. It was open all day long and he either hesitated or missed the shot. He's GOT to have the confidence to knock down a mid-range jumper, it'll make him a rotation player in the NBA. Upshaw was great screening the ball with 7 screens in his limited minutes. He remains a huge body and a great player to give guys room to operate. Give the team a couple shooters and he'd have a wide open lane after screens. Other screen setters were Clarkson with two inside the paint to free up our Center on a pin-down. Randle was extremely disappointing on the screens. He's a huge body but puts almost no effort in on screens. Jabari had one as well.

    Box Outs were pretty bad. Our guys continue to rely on their athleticism instead of good technique. Tarik Black and Larry Nance Jr. lead the way all game long with 9 and 7 Box Outs respectively. Nance Jr. especially has just terrific box out form. He doesn't just put his arms out, he drops his butt and puts his body on the defender. Black usually relies on just putting his arms out and being stronger than these guys, but he makes up for it with great activity as well. Now Randle recorded 9 Box Outs, but no less than 6 of them came late in the game. Most of the time Ndour moved around Randle easily to either get his hand on the ball or get the rebound completely. Just incredibly poor effort from Julius on the block most of the game. Upshaw of course did well in his limited minutes with 4 great Box Outs. Most guys simply don't have good form around the rim. I don't know if that's an NBA-wide issue or just ours, but I don't like it.

    Close Outs weren't that many because frankly New York didn't shoot very well or very often. Our guys were mostly active though and when shots did go up MOST of the time we had someone try to run out to them. Nance Jr. was unsurprisingly the best at closing out to shooters with 4 on the game. Clarkson, Brown, and Black each had 3 Close Outs. Anthony Brown did a really good job with 2 of them. Mitchell barely played, but he had one. Russell also chipped in with one and a half of one where he jogged to the shooter. Upshaw, Randle, Buycks, and Mumford were the only ones who didn't record a single close out. Of those, Randle is by far the most disappointing since he had plenty of opportunities to do so.

    Ball Watching was a stat designed specifically to watch Randle who was incredibly guilty of this in Game 1 but this last game was a travesty for the entire team. They kept going to the zone and in doing so let the Knicks get way more rebounds than they should have gotten. If you go zone, you absolutely HAVE to box out because the entire court is open to cutters. That being said there were three players that got burned watching the ball. Jabari Brown and D'angelo Russell were burned twice each. Randle was caught 3 times watching the ball instead of either boxing out or defending his man. A lot of times in the zone he'd let the offensive player cut in front of him and then try to recover and block the shot, but it gave the opposition possession of the ball deep in the paint.

    The Hedging and Rotating stat still needs some tweaking. In this game, I decided to include the times our bigs would switch effectively on screens. Easily and by far the most effective player rotating around the rim and on pick and rolls was Larry Nance Jr. He was amazing defensively on pick and rolls either switching completely or hedging out to stop penetration. He recorded 20 H&R points, which is nearly as much as the rest of the team combined. He's an absolute stopper in pick and roll defensively, he did a tremendous job. If/when he nails down that mid-range jumper I think he is a fringe NBA starter and at the very least a rotation NBA player. Needs that shot to fall though or he's a liability offensively. The other standout was Tarik Black with 9 H&R points. He's also very good on pick and rolls and his athleticism lets him recover nicely inside. On the perimeter Clarkson was the best at hedging on drivers and disrupting the opposing offense with 6 points to himself. Upshaw was great in limited minutes with 3 points. Anthony Brown was terrific with 4 points and a potentially game changing stop late in the 4th that might have gotten us a chance to win the game. Russell, Randle, and Jabari each had one point.

    Last but not least the Changed Shot stat belongs to who else? Larry Nance Jr. The guy was everywhere defensively in Game 3 and he registered 8 changed shots by himself. His length and athleticism are deceiving because of how fast he can get off the ground. He's tremendously athletic and uses every ounce of that to his advantage. Tarik Black came in second with 3 by himself. Anthony Brown and Julius Randle each registered one changed shot. Brown has absolutely picked up his defensive effort after that first game. I've seen him lock down point guards and fight against power forwards although he shouldn't guard either one very long. Randle again disappointed me with his effort at changing shots. He was at times the biggest, strongest, most athletic player on the floor and he almost never challenged a shot.

    Overall Julius's effort and body language in this game was atrocious. If I were his teammate I'd have reamed him on the bench. He showed almost no hustle out there. All of the little things he did last season, the rebounding, and the great passing, the patient offense, none of that is there right now. He's been the definition of insanity: trying the same things over and over that aren't working and expecting a different result. As the game went on he moved the ball better and I'll give him credit there. He's starting to look more when he drives. His shots though typically are not very good shots. They're driven into the teeth of the defense and shot over 2-4 guys. Someone needs to get his head on straight.

    Other Observations:
    Billy Mack was either drunk or very distracted... More than once he would say "so-and-so we'll hopefully see them" and they were on the floor...

    I REALLY don't like that French kid on their Summer League team. Labeyrie either complained on the call, hacked one of our guys, or gave one of our guys unnecessary attitude EVERY SINGLE play that he was on the floor. Just one of those annoying players that comes around every now and then.
     
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  4. Chillbongo

    Chillbongo - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Hey @trodgers what are positional efficiencies?

    What's used to calculate them and how do you formulate those criteria into a single number? What is used to determine score ranges and what they indicate (60 not being a starter vs 70, etc.)?
     
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  5. Chillbongo

    Chillbongo - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Excellent post real. I too thought I saw Anthony Brown doing a great job of closing out on shooters. Other than though really appreciate your detailed report here as it is way too hard for me to notice all of these nuances in real time.

    I don't know that Brown is a legitimate NBA player yet. I'd like him to start off in the d-league and really learn some kind of offense there. He seems to be at least decent on defense.

    Larry Nance is looking better and after reading your report I am really excited. He can be our White Ibaka....setting dirty screens, crashing the boards, altering shots, put backs, and hopefully hitting a 15 footer soon. I hope we give him solid minutes this season. I have a feeling he'll start off not playing much and then getting regular burn towards around the all-star break.

    Encouraging improvement from Black. Would like to see more run for Upshaw.
     
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  6. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I'll come back in a bit and explain, chill.
     
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  7. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    I felt the same about frenchie, real. I thought jabari brown was going take him out at one point, but he might have been too bewildered by his bizarre behavior to care.

    randle has made my pants quite sad in his two games. as you said, it's not just the results, it's the entire approach. you can't act like you're too good for summer league until you've proven you're too good for summer league. the guy taken 40 picks after you is allowed to be guilty of "just not being all that into it". you're getting punked by scrubs. handle that.
     
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  8. Chillbongo

    Chillbongo - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Thanks T, hahaha - it was a loaded question. I've seen you posting these for years. Figured I'd try to understand them now :blush:
     
  9. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Larry is only half white. :D

    His father is black.
     
  10. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Yeah I don't know what that guy's issue was. Fake tough guy all over the floor. He made very few actual good plays for them but he acted like the man.

    Randle definitely needs to watch tape of himself from last year. He might be our future but not the way he's playing. The way he's playing is almost as annoying as the French guy.
     
  11. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Here's the briefest of explanations that does service. Think of it like Passer Rating in the NFL. I've set 95 to the positional ratings of the average of the top players at each position.

    Passing Efficiency is assist rate and assist ratio.
    Scoring Efficiency is scoring rate and points per possession.
    Hustle Efficiency is o-reb+steal+blk (as good) and to+pf (as bad): it's good rate and good to bad ratio.

    PGs weight passing most heavily then scoring.
    Wings weight scoring and then passing.
    Bigs weight scoring and hustle.

    100+ is awesome
    90+ is star
    80+ is quality starter
    70+ is borderline starter
    60+ is rotation player
    50+ is end of bench player

    This does NOT take into account defensive performance; that's another metric. So I call it (Offensive) Positional Efficiency or O-Eff (Pronounced "oh eff.").
     
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  12. KareemtheGreat33

    KareemtheGreat33 - Lakers MVP -

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  13. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Not a fetish, just one of the only ones to show up easily in Road Purple for me...
     
  14. Chillbongo

    Chillbongo - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Nice, the criteria looks solid. Ok so I am really trying to wrap my head around all this kind of stuff. I used the last summer league game for stats.

    I crunched D'Angelo's assist rate (same thing as assist % right?) to be approximately 42. I didn't calculate exactly the amount of minutes played by everyone for simplicity. So assist rate = 42. Then I calculated his assist ratio (Hollinger's Formula, right?) to be 15.88.

    So do I just take 15.88 + 42 to get his Positional Efficiency? In this case, the numbers matchup (roughly) with what you have ( I got 57.88).

    If this is how you're calculating it, looks good. I like assist rate because players are not penalized for playing less minutes, in fact they're rewarded. I also like it because it doesn't penalize a PG for his team making a lot of field goals, and it's nullified if he's racking up more than a handful of assists.

    However I have never been a big fan of Hollinger's formulas. I think he has arbitrary constants in all of his formulas, and assist ratio is no different. Maybe I'm missing the point, but why should you reduce the value of free throws by multiplying it by .44? Why does he use that constant in a lot of his formulas? In fact - with the case of assist ratio, why the hell are FT's even included in the formula? You don't assist on FT's.

    Also, why is the total team assists factored into the denominator? If I'm a guard and I'm racking up assists, it should not matter how many assists my team is racking up. I am doing a good job assisting - why is my assist ratio lessened if my team racks up more assists? Are we evaluating a player based on how much of an impact he has vs other teammates, or are we just looking at this player in vacuum? To me it should be the latter. Anyways, sorry for ranting. I just really like understanding the intricacies of these things and with most of Hollinger's formulas, I either don't understand or I just don't think highly of them.
     
  15. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    I had to switch to Lakers Nights 1st to read it, but can see it in purple.

    BTW, is anyone else getting Sunday Whites the first time or couple of times you're clicking on some other color??
     
  16. KareemtheGreat33

    KareemtheGreat33 - Lakers MVP -

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    Dunno what I have probably whites...can't stand the rest of the "skins"
     
  17. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    It's pretty different. It's far more like the Power/Speed number in MLB.

    Assist Rate is assist/minute. Assist ratio is assists/(assist+to).

    Raw Passer Rating = (Assist Rate*Assist Ratio)/(Assist Rate + Assist Ratio)
    Passer Rating = 100*sqrt(Raw Passer Rating)
     
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  18. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    @Chillbongo Two shortcomings of my stats. #1, they're not Pace-adjusted (but I have my reasons); #2 they don't really tell anything about defense. There's a companion stat, but it requires data I typically don't have access to (like 82games's data).
     
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  19. bonk

    bonk - Rookie -

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    Interesting. Straight calculations or are you getting "advanced"? One suggestion would be to increase the TO factor for primary ball handlers. Keeping their "rate" the same as a player touching the ball for 1/10th the duration seems inappropriate.

    Important things in analyzing a players real value are things like boxing out, chasing blocks and creating defensive breakdowns, moving to the open space off the ball, timing the play correctly etc. There is almost no way to find a data set for them without creating it from scratch.

    I don't see a lot of value in the analytical stats created by some of the stat bureaus as they seem simply an extension of the basic stats and aimed at Fantasy leagues. Basketball is so much more complicated than assist to TO ratio, "usage", Per, etc. Garbage in garbage out.

    It would be nice to have the time to come up with a completely new stat set that takes into account things that never get quantified like off the ball movement, chasing blocks, gambling for steals, jumping a screen, quality of fouls etc. This is where games are decided most of the time.
     
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  20. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Updating...

    Positional Efficiencies

    PG
    Russell 57
    Clarkson 54
    Buycks 16

    Wing
    J. Brown 66
    Randle 65
    Clarkson 62
    Munford 50
    Mitchell 48
    Nance 30
    A. Brown 27

    BIG
    Randle 70
    Black 63
    Nance 52
    Upshaw 33

    LEADERS
    Scoring: Jabari Brown 6.8, Munford 6.4, Randle 6.3
    Passing: Russell 3.1, Randle 2.1, Clarkson 2.1
    Hustle: Nance 3.5, Mitchell 3.3, Black 3.2,
     

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