This looked like fun so I did it too. Ran 50 simulations twice. One on TankAthon and one on ESPN TankAthon: 1st-8 2nd-7 3rd-7 4th-13 5th-15 ESPN: 1st-15 2nd-10 3rd-8 4th-14 5th-3 I still don't understand how statistically the pick has a 30% chance to land on 4. Can someone explain that to me? Why is 4 the most likely spot for the 2nd pick to end up in the lottery?
It's too discourage tanking. If you're more likely to get a worse pick than your finishing spot, then ostensibly you won't be so inclined to tank and get a lower seed. Still though, we're technically more like to get a Top 3 pick than not... It's just very close.
I'm not a proponent of hoarding them but given our scouting department there's definite value in having at least one pick in the 20s every year. Cheap, cost controlled talent. In the past 5 years here's some of the available talent in the 20s: Plumlee brothers, Ezeli, Gobert, Fournier, Crabbe, Capela, Hood, Dieng, Butler, Faired, Mirotic, Reggie Jackson, and Bogdan. I'd have no problem with the Lakers swinging for one of those guys each year and if there wasn't once we felt comfortable with, give it to SA to stash a guy. It's just most of the teams in the 20s have shoddy scouting departments and there's typically only one or two of those steals in that range each year.
I think you misunderstood me: those picks can yield good players, but the idea that having several of them puts you in a privileged position is silly to me. these picks are sold for very little every year. the odds of hitting are super low. I thought it was hilarious that hinkie, in part of his totally insane resignation letter, puffed his chest out about how many second rounders philly had. I got a crapload of twist-tops, suckas!
I think a great scouting department can find maybe one gem in the mid-twenties or lower every year or so, maybe even a slightly lower rate than that. A great scouting department probably can find a gem once every 1.05 years or so if that makes sense. No scouting department can find 4 gems in the 2nd round. It's statistically impossible. Those 2nd rounders are good for trading up into the early 2nd or if you're lucky late 1st OR selling them on eBay/NBA_GMs for a couple million.
I think solid rotation player is the dream scenario in the 2nd round. I'd more likely go after an unknown overseas talent or a multi-year college player like Nance vs totally undeveloped talent.
Omg, I would give my left nut to draft Brandon Ingram!! Okay not literally, lol, but still, count me in on the Ingram bandwagon. Dude looks like beast out there.
Who else is stressing out about tomorrow's lottery? I can't stop thinking about us not getting the draft pick and how pissed off I'll be... >:0
I'm stressed, and the fact that we will have to hear about it until the actual draft and see who we could have gotten will sting. But once the draft is over, it'll be OK. I am thinking about skipping the lottery. Not sure I can handle watching it.
I can't say I'll be pissed, I'll be more disappointed, especially seeing Philly rewarded for their nonsense again. That said, yeah, I'm stressed, I'll be watching, glued to the tv, only a little under a day and a half to go.
I'm not even stressed, I'm anxious. We have no control over what happens and I hate that feeling. Still if we lose the pick, it won't be the absolute end of the world to me like I've been saying. It's bad, but we'll recover and at least that means we get a guaranteed pick next season which is nearly guaranteed to be a lottery pick.
it's that last part that gets me. I have this hope somewhere that if the lakers kept their pick this year, they might be able to have a summer good enough to either avoid the lotto or be a very late lotto team next year. losing this pick means a tiny part of me will wish for the tank at times next year. I don't like that part of me.
Anxious is a much better word, because yeah, I'm actually not stressing thinking about it. I just want it to be here already, I want it over with, anxious is the perfect word. Losing it is not the end of the world, we would be ok, losing it last season would have felt much more like the end of the world.
Its weird to know that John Black our PR guy will know our fate 1 hour or so before the televised lottery even happens. If only there was a way to get a camera on him in the room where the lottery happens before the TV coverage starts just to see if we could know by the expression on his face. I will definitely be watching. I love the drama of it all. Starring intensly at the TV when they say "And the 4th pick belongs to...." Don't be the Lakers, Don't be the Lakers. I remember last year I was literally shaking counting down from 5,4, and then 3. When we made it past 4 I gave out a loud yell and scream in excitement. Then as we all know it got even better, because we got the #2 pick instead of 3. It funny too because after announcing #4 they always bring up the last 3 teams and then go to a commercial break. ALWAYS. So there is more intense waiting. All in all I am very hopeful about tomorrow!
Here's some inside information from DE/The Vertical on the process and how agents and teams are handling it. They also talk about how hard it is this year (and maybe this is now the status quo) of figuring out exactly where kids will get drafted. Some teams have Player X as high as the Top 10 and other teams have that exact same player as low as the 2nd Round. Strange year for the draft.
Kind of the same, but at last without Kobe and Byron I think I'll enjoy the ride more. We're at least out of limbo and moving forward so if we make the playoffs: awesome! That means we probably killed it in FA and our kids looked great, etc. If we don't (which is the much more likely scenario even if we do well in FA), then at least we've got an outside shot at a nice prospect. Apparently there'll be a deeper top-shelf talent pool next summer compared to this summer which is full of potential journeymen so that's nice.
Oh my goodness yes. Last summer we had nothing except that pick. Kobe's old butt and big contract were still around, but even worse we were gearing up for another year of Byron. The FA situation was going to be rough. Now? Well even if we lose the pick and strike out on big FAs, we've got a handful of good young talent and an up and coming coach. There's still optimism to be had even if this summer fizzles out. Last summer we would have had nothing... *shudder*
