Presidential Election Aftermath: What Now / What Next?

Latest Fox News poll has Bernie ahead of Hillary at 70% to 30% in California. (Yes....I know it's Fox new)

 

Trump for dayz guys.

Trump for dayz.

 

It's up to 73% now, but honestly, I don't know how this will translate to actual votes once old people votes are counted, however California is a simi closed primary, which means you can be unaffiliated and still vote:

"Fox Poll Sanders has 70% of California Vote
Written by Ken Burridge on 30 April 2016
Fox News online poll has Bernie Sanders with 70% of the California Vote, when asking the question “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”



Those visiting the Fox Nation link at:

http://nation.foxnews.com/poll/2016/03/09/if-election-were-held-today-who-would-vote-for/

can see the answer to that question as well as a breakdown for a handful of states (California, Texas, New York, Massachusetts and Maryland).

Of interest the number of votes have been reset from last month when the poll had approximately 100,000 votes, the current number is only at 27,000. They likely reset the vote tally not because they didn’t like the Bernie Sanders doing amazing and contradicting the Corporate Media sponsored message on the Presidential election, but also to remove previous contenders (Carson and Bush) from the voting list, they also added John Katich to the current voting list.

In the current National Poll Bernie Sanders is at 58% of the vote, with Donald Trump getting 25% and Hillary Clinton a distant 8%.

It may not be wise to put too much stock in these results because Bernie fans might just be more active on the internet as well as marching in the streets than the supporters of other candidates."

http://kenburridge.com/fox-poll-sanders-has-70-of-california-vote/

 

As I said, I don't know how this will translate to actual votes, but fact is Bernie wins primaries because they can't manipulate a primary the way they can a caucus. I'm pretty confident Bernie will win California.

 

This is the biggest possible factor for Bernie to win.

He's consistently beat Trump head to head in every poll for quite a while, while Hillary either ties Trump, or losses to Trump. In the end, the Dems at the convention might realize they stand a better chance at winning the presidency with Bernie:

"Latest Reuters Data Shows Hillary Losing to Trump, but Bernie Wins

As the presidential candidate field narrows, the number of polling participants marking undecided or not sure drops dramatically in election polls. Reuters has been the go-to resource for election sentiment, especially for head-to-head data. The most recent data confirms what many may have feared: Hillary Clinton actually loses in a head-to-head matchup against Donald Trump, while Bernie Sanders beats him easily.

EDIT: Reuters just released new 3/20 data for both candidates, which confirms the trend caught in this article.

I first caught the trend while looking at the Reuters polling data, which uses a 5-day rolling average (this helps smooth out their graphs & shows trends better). The Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump Reuters graph among looks like this:



From this data, we might come to the conclusion that Hillary wins, but by a slim 1.8% margin. Considering these polls are usually given a 3% margin of error, you could call it a virtual tie.

Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton: The Real Story


Trump is actually beating Hillary by 1.5%
However, these are rolling averages (meaning a combination of several days). Visually you can already see the trend of Donald Trump narrowing the gap, but when you look at the most recent data (March 18th) without the 5 days proceeding, it shows Trump is winning against Hillary Clinton. He wins by 1.5% (37.8 to 36.3%).

Reuters is already a few days behind on updating its data, but I expect in a couple days when the new data is released and the 5 day graphic reflects the new trend, the mainstream media will finally pick up on this.

Donald Trump vs Bernie Sanders
Let’s take a look at how Bernie Sanders fares against Trump. Again, here’s the rolling average:



Bernie Sanders beats Donald Trump by 11.6% in a head-to-head matchup (among registered voters)
The rolling 5-day period shows Bernie Sanders beating Trump by 11.6%. This is a very healthy lead and a comfortable win. Is the story like Hillary Clinton’s, where the rolling average is masking a more recent change?



Bernie beats Trump by 18.5%
The short answer is no. Bernie Sanders beats Trump by an even larger margin: 18.5%(49.9% to 31.4%)

This is big news for anyone who still believes that Clinton will do better against Trump than Bernie Sanders. If you are worried about a Donald Trump presidency, Bernie Sanders is by far your safest bet.

Further Analysis: Why Bernie Sanders Does Better Than Hillary
Let’s look at the differences between Sanders and Hillary to find out why he does so much better. Here’s the head-to-head matchup between the two:



Bernie Sanders has a 2.2% lead over Hillary Clinton
As you can see, Bernie Sanders has held a lead over Hillary for the past 8 days. For the 5-day rolling period ending 3/18, Bernie holds a 2.2% lead over Clinton. Dialing into just 3/18 gives Bernie a slightly bigger lead, but what is more interesting is the people who support the two candidates. Besides age,the major difference is Independents.

Independents
Bernie Sanders favors much better among Independent voters (said to be 1/3 of the voting population) when compared to Clinton.



Sanders leads Clinton by a 31% margin among independent voters.
You may also notice that his lead is widening among Independents. The chart shows a 31% lead, but the most recent day (non-rolling average) shows a commanding 57% to 11% (a 47% lead) for Bernie Sanders.

Trump also beats Clinton handily with Independents:



Trump beats Clinton by 18% among Independents who are registered to vote.
In fact, Trumps lead is growing as well. For 3/18 (without the rolling 5 days before it), Trump is beating Hillary 49% to 16% (a 33% lead). However, when matched up against Bernie Sanders, he loses the independent vote by 6% on average.

Hillary Loses Democratic States to Trump


Clinton loses Blue States to Trump
What should scare democrats even more than any of the data I shared above is that Trump beats Clinton in the two strongholds for the Democratic party: the West Coast & the North East. According to Reuters polling among registered voters, Trump Wins the Far West by 40% to 29% and the New England region by 7% (though 3/18 shows a 28% win for Trump). Let me repeat that: Trump beats Clinton in the most important Democratic states!

Final Analysis
Democrats should be very worried if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination. Trump clearly beats her in the general election, even taking the core Blue states every past Democrat has relied upon.

To be honest, I think the data understates Trump’s potential to beat Hillary Clinton in an election. Trump’s primary debate strategy is mudslinging and no candidate has more dirt, than Hillary Clinton. She’s got more scandals and questionable funding than even the Republicans he faced. It’s time for the media to expose this data before Trump becomes the next President of the United States.

People need to know. Please take this graphic & share it among Democratic & Independent voters:

"

 

Lol, even Trump knows it:

 

Rightfully so.

 

I think most of the world will laugh if we elect Clinton too...

 

I don't know if the rest of the world understands how corrupt and Amoral she really is.

 

Oh Lord Zen that's just the other side of the "Trump is bad (or good)" spectrum. Please don't say things like this...

 

Honestly I'm at a loss. Hopefully this is the moment we can all stand up for change. The amount of money changing hands while the American people have no say in their future... it's frightening.