Official Whine, Moan, Complain Thread 19/20-CLOSED "WE CHAMPS!"

Let them hate.

 

^^^ and lost Rondo.

 

^^^ and lost Rondo.

 

ESPN insider doesn't think that Lakers are making a playoff

Projected
2018-19 records and standings for every team


Western Conference

1. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 58.6

The Warriors ended up falling short of last season's expected 62.6 wins, largely because of injuries. Though Golden State may be healthier this season, aging and regression to the mean drop the Warriors' projection to about where they ended in 2017-18 (58 wins) -- though it's still 3.5 wins ahead of any other team.


2. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 53.4

In a conference that no longer appears to have a second elite team, Utah moves up despite -- or perhaps, in part, because of -- a relatively quiet offseason. With Rudy Gobertin the lineup, the Jazz won at a 54-win clip in 2017-18, so it's reasonable to think they can maintain that pace this season.


3. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 53.0

Even if the Rockets had brought everyone back this offseason, their RPM projection would likely have come in well south of last season's 65 wins, which slightly exceeded their point differential (typical of a 61-win team). Factor in the downgrade from Trevor Ariza(minus-1.2 projected RPM) and Luc Mbah a Moute (minus-0.1) to Carmelo Anthony (minus-1.6, and reportedly on his way to Houston) and James Ennis (minus-1.7), and Houston drops slightly behind Utah in terms of projected average wins.


4. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 50.5

Though they fell just short of the postseason, the Nuggets won 46 games with newcomer Paul Millsap(38 games) playing less than half their games. Add in the development of young talent and possible addition by subtraction with the Wilson Chandler trade, and Denver is a sleeper to contend for home-court advantage in the opening round.


5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 49.6

Having beaten out the Nuggets for the last playoff spot in the West, the Timberwolves also figure to improve by virtue of better health after going 10-13 in the 23 games Jimmy Butler missed.


6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 47.2
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Surprisingly, even after re-signing Paul George, the Thunder don't look any better than they did last season, when they won 48 games with the point differential of a 50-win team. While conventional wisdom has Anthony's departure in the addition-by-subtraction category, that will depend whether his minutes go primarily to Jerami Grant (projected minus-1.7 RPM) or Patrick Patterson (plus-0.7). And newcomers Nerlens Noel (minus-1.1) and Dennis Schroder (minus-1.2) don't project as significant upgrades on the second unit, so even a full season from Andre Roberson after a ruptured patella tendon doesn't keep Oklahoma City in the projected top four in the West.


7. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 44.1

This projection for the Pelicans is more in line with their point differential (typical of a 44-win team) than their actual 48 wins last season. With the adjustment for changing teams, neither Elfrid Payton (minus-1.3 projected RPM) nor Julius Randle (minus-1.0) look like major upgrades for New Orleans -- though they came at value prices.


8. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 42.0

The Blazers' offseason makeover of their bench, along with regression to the mean, is responsible for a projected drop from last season's 49 wins -- good for third in the West. Seth Curry (projected minus-1.4 RPM) doesn't rate as well as Napier, while Davis' departure means more minutes for second-year center Zach Collins (minus-1.9).


9. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 41.2

When the Lakers first signed LeBron, I put together a preliminary RPM projection that pegged them for 50 wins. So why the drop to 41 in the full version? No team was hit harder by the adjustment for players changing teams than the Lakers, who project to have just 55 percent of their minutes played by returning players. (Only the Phoenix Suns are lower in this regard.) And no individual was hit harder than James, whose projected RPM dropped from plus-5.0 to plus-2.7. While LeBron's offensive RPM did, in fact, take a huge hit when he joined the Miami Heat in 2010-11 (from plus-8.7 to plus-4.8), he's still likely to beat that projection.

If James drops only to a plus-4.0, the Lakers would move into eighth, and even if this projection is accurate for all teams, they would still probably be better than 50-50 bets to make the playoffs because somebody else falls out, so RPM isn't necessarily calling them a lottery team. Nonetheless, these projections do now suggest the Lakers are far from challenging the best teams in the West.

 

We could conceivably have won that many last year if not for injuries and the team f****** with Randle. Could have started him at the 4 and communicated in much better ways than parking him on the bench with too few minutes. IMO.

Hating Idiots. Good. Bulletin board material for sure.

 

If we are healthy , we are finishing no worse than 5th.

 

Again with the f***ing nuggets?

 

If Lebron would have joined the Suns, bet you a good amount of money the media will be calling them Western Conference Finals favorites.

 

those projections show why analytics are flawed

 

so did he just admit that RPM is basically a worthless stat?

 

Font get me wrong, I'm a lakers fan first and want us to win, and like Malone, I hate lebron less now that he's ours. But if we do miss the playoffs, at least we can say; "see this is how lebron looks in the west!"

 

Okay help me out, I’m confused by this logic. So take a 35 win team, add the best player in the world and they improve by...6 wins? Even without James I think this team as currently constructed improves by 6.

 

It will just give the team something good to put on the board for extra motivation. I appreciate the help from ESPN “Insider”.

 

Things that kept us out of playoffs last season:

1. Injuries
We are backed up at every position better than we were last year so even if the (honestly normal) rookie/injury thing doesn't improve, now we don't drop off if Zo goes down (enter Rondo) or KCP (enter Hart) if BI goes out, several people can play the 3 (Hart, LBJ, Kuz, Svi, Wear) at the 4 if LBJ goes down, obviously that's an overall bad situation but Beasley can certainly back up the 4 as can Kuz and the distribution will still occur with the guys we have. At center, does anyone even care at this point? We don't even know who will start or take most of the minutes @ the 1 as it is. It's a do or die year for Zu, we'll see what he is made of.
2. Losing close games.
Bad 4th quarter play, inability to close out close games. With LBJ and Rondo and all the vets of course this is expected to greatly decrease. The guys are going to learn about controlling tempo, keeping composure and playing brutal D late in games.
2. Isaiah Thomas.
Dude was a 4th quarter chucker. 35% in the 4th quarter. Meanwhile Kuz is averaging 5 pts in the 4th quarters with great %s. IT fed Randle well but was that really that hard getting the ball to him? He was an easy target and get to the rim all by himself anyways. Anyways he's gone (there is my WMC for the thread) but the good thing is IT is gone. Rather have Kuz be that guy shooting .480 .387(3s) in March. Than a tiny no D guy desperately chasing that big contract he was denied by Danny Ainge.

As a matter of fact I would play the hell out of Kuz if I were Luke. Check his stats, he plays better the more responsibility he is given. Better stats as a starter, better stats with more minutes and it goes up exponentially with his minutes. For instance, as a starter (roughly 1/2 the games last season) 19/7/2 in 36.5 mins. shooting .392 from 3. Taking 4 FTs per game @ .725. - I would of course get a commitment to play more and better defense from him for the starter role. I think holding that over Kuz's head will have great effect but sooner rather than later his scoring is going to force Walter to put him in the starting line up for good.

Because 41 wins does not get you in the playoffs in the West. We would have needed 12-13 more wins to guarantee the 8th spot last year. That's a considerable jump so that's why the pessimism but I personally think we get those wins easy from adding LBJ and the reasons outlined above.

 

We are NOT worse than the Nuggets, Pelicans or Portland. And frankly, I'll take us over OKC and SA any given night.