Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Discussion in 'Other Sports Discussion' started by trodgers, Jan 17, 2020.

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  1. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Crosby all heart and effort, gets the Chiefs off the field. Raiders drive, convert a FG.

    21-17.

    C'mon, Raiders. Let's finish this.
     
    trodgers, Nov 26, 2023
    #1881
  2. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Not sold on this OC, but while we're distributing blame...

    Jacobs with two drops in the last two drives before getting stuffed on 4th down deep in their own territory.
    AOC has to audible out of a zone run with a 9-man front.
     
    trodgers, Nov 26, 2023
    #1882
  3. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    31-17. Another underwhelming second half.
     
    trodgers, Nov 26, 2023
    #1883
  4. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Bright side: offense should have rolled up 17 points in the first half.
    They just couldn't do anything in the second half when it counted.
     
    trodgers, Nov 26, 2023
    #1884
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  5. gcclaker

    gcclaker Moderator Staff Member

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    Growing pains.
     
    gcclaker, Nov 26, 2023
    #1885
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  6. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I do like silver linings, and I think it's important to look for them with a team that has just undergone so much change. Here's something shocking, to me at least:

    Aidan O'Connell now has two of the top 41 games on the season in terms of QBR. His 90.4 QBR vs. the Chiefs was the 13th best game of the season by a QB. No other rookie has had a better game than that mark, and CJ Stroud is the only one who has had a game with a better QBR than AOC's SECOND best QBR game. Is AOC going to wind up the QB steal of the draft?
     
    trodgers, Nov 27, 2023
    #1886
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  7. gcclaker

    gcclaker Moderator Staff Member

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    Marcus Peters and Roderick Teamer both waived. One doesn't tackle and the other irresponsible.

    Looks like the new bosses don't tolerate bull***t.
     
    gcclaker, Nov 27, 2023
    #1887
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  8. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Also, Nesta Jade Silvera posted a video after Pierce's first game as coach. The rookie was smoking (fine, lots were) and said, "These N***as don't play me." He hasn't suited up since then.
     
    trodgers, Nov 28, 2023
    #1888
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  9. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Biggest surprise/disappointment on offense? I present some composite ratings.

    QB
    Jimmy G. 66
    AOC 63
    Hoyer 44
    -It's a shame Garoppolo has been so far below his usual self this season. AOC has all but closed the gap and has earned the nod going forward.

    RB
    Jacobs 76
    Abdullah 51
    White 38
    -Is there a more disappointing group for the Raiders? JJ might be in Pro Bowl form at last, with 401 yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs over his last four. While Jacobs has finally gotten himself going, the other running backs have been so bad at running the ball that Tre Tucker is the team's second leading rusher with 63 yards on 7 carries. Zamir White's 38.9% success rate is lower than every Raider who has run the ball except for Brian Hoyer. I fear White has played himself out of a job.

    WR
    Adams 85/Meyers 81
    Renfrow 58/Tucker 55
    Carter 50
    -Adams has been good but not spectacular. He has dealt with three different starting QBs and two OCs. So, that's a parial explanation. Meyers has been great, good enough to cover for some other spotty WR play. He could establish some career highs this season, oo. But don't count out Renfrow. After snagging just 6 passes in his first six games, he has 9 in his last two.

    TE
    Mayer 69/Hooper 63
    Horsted 24
    -Mayer has gotten it going, and Hooper has been consistent. Neither is going to finish with big numbers, however, and they'll both have to continue to improve down the stretch.

    OL
    Van Roten 87/Parham 78
    Miller 85/Eluemunor 79
    James 84/Munford 68
    -I'm frankly shocked at how good this team has been in pass protection. I'm also shocked at how bad they looked in run blocking for much of the season. I'm doubly shocked at how good they've looked in run blocking of late. This is a mostly young crew, with Van Roten being the only one over 29.
     
    trodgers, Nov 29, 2023
    #1889
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  10. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I'm grading today, but I like some breaks...

    DI
    Nichols 61/Tillery 66
    Jenkins 72/Butler 64
    Young 41/Silvera 28
    -Shocking to see Jenkins as the top DI? Only if you're not watching. He's been a stalwart up front. Tillery, Nichols, and Butler have all been passable, but no one else has really stepped up outside Jenkins. Tough sledding for the rookies, and Silvera didn't do himself any favors with his ill-advised video posted to social media. I'll do a dive into this position with a look at HEAT index in a bit.
     
    trodgers, Nov 30, 2023
    #1890
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  11. gcclaker

    gcclaker Moderator Staff Member

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    gcclaker, Nov 30, 2023
    #1891
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  12. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Well, you've got to stand up to the other person in that relationship when they're making a bad call. I've heard we could have moved to #2 and drafted Stroud. Would have been a different season. That said, I'm glad both guys are gone.

    I think Champ Kelly deserves the job as GM.
    I'm not fully sold on Pierce, but I think he has five games here to earn it.

    I think the staffer I'm least sold on so far is the OC. Again, however, he has 5 games to make it happen.
     
    trodgers, Dec 4, 2023
    #1892
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  13. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Team Success
    The Raiders are 5-7. That's tied for last in the AFC West.
    There are 8 teams with a worse record.
    They're currently 13th in the playoff hunt.

    Digging in...
    Their -54 point differential is better than only 6 teams in the league.
    Only 2 teams worse are in the AFC.
    That would put them well outside the playoffs.

    Their Pythagorean Wins are currently 4.6, projecting to 6.5 wins on the season.
    Since they've already won 5, that projects to 2- the rest of the way. That's 7 wins.
    A 7-win team is definitely not making the playoffs.
    Projected Wins by PD: 6.9

    QB Play
    AOC's QBR is 34.5. That means that the team will win roughly 34.5% of games with him starting.
    That would be 1.7 more wins, for a final record of 7-10. Again, well outside the playoffs.

    But he has been at about 56 the past four starts. That projects to 2.8 wins the rest of the way.
    That would be ~8 wins. That doesn't give the Raiders much of a shot at the playoffs.
    Projected Wins QBR: 7.3

    Trends
    Finally, if we chuck out the first two games of the season, the Raiders are...
    4-6, with a point differential of -27.
    That's much more favorable football, and the team would trend to about 2.1 more wins.
    Projected Wins TREND: 7.1

    Final Thoughts?
    7.1 wins.

    Reasons for hope?
    More Jacobs! 363 rushing yards and 3 TDS in his last four games! More AOC! Two top 2 QBRs in this last three games! More Renfrow! 9-80 in his last two games! More Maxx! 1.5 more sacks to set a career high, 1 sack to hit 50 in his first five seasons!
    Reasons to doubt? That schedule. The Vikings are "only" 6-6, but their point differential is tenth best in the league.

    Right now, Justin Jefferson is listed as questionable. That would be huge for the Raiders, limiting their main receiving threat to a TE.
     
    trodgers, Dec 5, 2023
    #1893
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  14. gcclaker

    gcclaker Moderator Staff Member

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    I still say 9 Dubs. The game at Arrowhead is the one that I say would be a loss but stranger things happen. The others are toss ups since we haven't really put it together as usual. Better than not getting it together the whole game B.P. (Before Pierce).

    Ex-Raider news: Carr really bottoming out in The Big Easy, crowd booing, teammates questioning his eye sight and to cap it off Bruce Irvin knocks him out of the game. Darren Waller still out with hamstring issues just like last season.
     
    gcclaker, Dec 5, 2023
    #1894
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  15. puffyusaf#2

    puffyusaf#2 - Lakers Starter -

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    I think they all deserve the jobs. Champ Kelly is the easiest as he was already on the radar for the gig before. He hasn't really been able to do much since taking over to, like the others need to do, "prove" what he can or can't do. His biggest pro for me is that he isn't beholden to the coach nor does he answer to him like it appears so many of our past GMs have been.

    AP in my opinion has earned a 3 year deal. Hondo Carpenter was on the Graphic Raider youtube channel the other day suggested the Raiders give him a 3 year deal of about 3 million a year with huge incentives such as if the Raiders make the playoffs in those years his salary gets bumped up to the 10 mil (what gruden and MCd were getting) and is retroactive for all his years. It was something like that. In any case, I think AP has earned a chance because of one main reason.... The players play hard for him (sans Marcus who they got rid of). He is learning on the job and is, imo, getting more comfortable in the role. He has the team and they are trending in the right direction. Someone new comes in and blows it all up again. Not sold we need to do that.

    Onto the OC. I actually think Bo is doing a decent job with what is essentially a modified Josh McDaniels playbook. There was no way he would be able to impliment a new offense. Add to that they had to cut it down majorly to help Aiden step into the role of starter. I think he has had his head scratching calls but I also think he has had his brilliant calls too. His QB1 is comfortable in the system and he is getting guys open across the field. I think he deserves more credit than fans are giving him for Aidens play. Again, fans want a "established" OC but Im not sold we need to dump him. I like where we are heading as a unit.

    Last one Imma mention is that I think AOC is QB1. I believe this kid can be a star in this game. His growth from game to game has been amazing. Stat heads will look at some of the stats and think he wasn't doing well. However, if you watch the game he (and the offense) has been on the wrong side of way too many 50/50 calls and plays that change the trajectory of the game.

    First thing that comes to mind is the interception in the endzone against the chargers (I believe). The ball was thrown short of the endzone (not great) but right on the money to hit Jakobi in stride. What happened? Jakobi never turns his head for the ball and when he did get his head around he checks up which gives him no shot at the pass. If you look at the replay you see that had he done so he either makes the catch or he breaks up the int attempt. We get another shot to win that game.

    Second one that comes to mind was the deep interception to carter in the endzone that sealed the game. I don't think it was a wise pass first off. That being said, the ball was on the money and had the second safety not recovered so quickly we are likely looking at the game tying td. I think he threw that ball 2 seconds too late which would of negated the second safety and utilized Carters speed. That being said, the poise and the throw were amazing.

    The last point is in the last two games we have seen Devante getting held on serious momentum shifting plays. Again Aiden is putting the ball where it should be and Devante makes the catch 99/100 times. However against KC we had 3 (im pretty sure) end on what would of been big plays for Devante who was clearly being held on the play.

    In the end, for all these guys I don't look at the record because winning and losing for a team that is still learning how to "win ugly" can come down to a play of two. What I like from these guys is the culture has changed, the beliefs have changed and the drive has changed. We have a coach, OC, DC and a QB1 who does not make excuses or points fingers at others. They all take ownership for the good and the bad. As fans we have been begging for a return to our culture of football.... I think we are getting that and I for one want that to come back next year.
     
    puffyusaf#2, Dec 6, 2023
    #1895
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  16. puffyusaf#2

    puffyusaf#2 - Lakers Starter -

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    Our projections are hard because this team can easily run the table 5-0 but also easily get ran off the table 0-5. It may be the "fan" in me but I think this team is on the cusp of doing something great. We may be running out of time but its all there. I would love to see us drop a statement type win this weekend and then again on Thursday night (short week) against the donkeys. I think the Chiefs are not as good as they have been and I think we def can go into Arrowhead and finally get that W
     
    puffyusaf#2, Dec 6, 2023
    #1896
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  17. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I buy a lot of what you've said about AP, and I think it applies to Hardegree, too. I don't think we need to blow up anything. The team isn't set as it is, but I think that bringing back Jacobs gives us relatively few holes to fill on offense. I just want this team to have some continuity and consistency. 3 years sounds great.

    When I say I'm not sold on AP, let me clarify. He talks a good game and players love him. He clearly knows a lot about defense. But he's made some really conservative decisions, doesn't have the best review process in place, and has to bring up the level of substance to match the talk. "I'm not sold" means I don't know if he's a good coach or could be a good coach. I do think he's good enough to be our coach for next season, for sure. And if you give a guy one season, you might as well give him two.
     
    trodgers, Dec 6, 2023
    #1897
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  18. gcclaker

    gcclaker Moderator Staff Member

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    Pierce has never been a head honcho in any of his stops so it's learning on the fly for him. He did say that whether he gets the gig or not he feels he has learned and will be the better for it.
     
    gcclaker, Dec 6, 2023
    #1898
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  19. puffyusaf#2

    puffyusaf#2 - Lakers Starter -

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    I def get what you mean in your clarification of "not sold" on AP. For that part there I actually look at what he said when he got the job (Im paraphrasing) "I'm going to let the people who do their job... DO their job". I think he is a true leader in the fact that he is going to hold his "team" of coaches responsible for the product entrusted in them while also making sure that it is his vision being put on the field. I am curious what he would build as his full staff.

    The one thing I am wondering is how well he builds his staff when it comes to the type of guys/gals. I love our Raiders way but we can't have nothing but "dogs" on the squad. We have to have some more cautious peeps too to balance it out. Im really curious as to what Mark will do at the end of the season.
     
    puffyusaf#2, Dec 6, 2023
    #1899
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  20. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    What are your thoughts on AOC?

    I'm seeing nearly every Raiders site and fandom saying that AOC isn't the answer. I'm kinda shocked. He MIGHT not be, but to go from being drafted where he was to a dreadful first half of action with no prep time to what he's done of late? I think he's been a league average QB over the last four games, and he has two of the highest QBR games of any QB this season. I'm not ready to sign him to a ten-year extension, but he seems like the real deal to me. At the very least, he deserves as much consideration as a starter going forward as anyone not named CJ Stroud among the rookies.
     
    trodgers, Dec 7, 2023
    #1900
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