Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Defensive Interior
DT Bilal Nichols 804 snaps, 55.5 PFF, 3.3 Relentless
DT Andrew Billings 481 snaps, 76.4 PFF, 1.5 Relentless
DT Jerry Tillery 258 snaps, 49.8 PFF, 1.9 Relentless
DT Neil Farrell Jr. 158 snaps, 35.5 PFF, 2.5 Relentless
DT Kyle Peko 154 snaps, 57.4 PFF, 0.6 Relentless
DT Matthew Butler 56 snaps, 51.6 PFF, 4.5 Relentless

Under Contract
Matthew Butler .9m
-Butler was a bargain bin deal, and he played at least up to the contract.
Neil Farrell Jr. 1.1m
-Farrell struggled as a rookie, posting the lowest PFF grade among DIs on the Raiders.
Bilal Nichols 6.7m (3.6m dead)
-Had a pretty pedestrian performance despite being the highest paid DI on the team.

Free Agents
Jerry Tillery (MV 7.8m)
-Two sides to Tillery. One of them didn't make it through is rookie deal and committed that egregious penalty at season's end. The other looked like the best DI on the team to finish the season and has a market value of $7.8m according to Spotrac.
Andrew Billings
-Solid showing, leading the team in snaps, pressures, QB hits, and sacks among interior DLs.
Kyle Peko
-Mediocre performance.

Strengths: Given the players under contract, not much. Farrell could build into a solid player, but he wasn't close this season.
Weaknesses: Huge holes on the defensive front.

Recommendation: A defense that surrendered 400+ yards five times, held only one team below 300, posted double digit negative Expected Points on Defense in seven games, and forced only 13 TOs all season has a lot of holes. I like Tillery, but I think the Raiders need to look for an upgrade. This is a position where the Raiders could add a good Free Agent and also draft a good prospect. There are some topflight UFAs this season in Fletcher Cox (fading) and Javon Hargrave from the Eagles, Dalvin Tomlinson, David Onyemata (some questions), Sheldon Rankins, Taven Bryan (a little risky), Da'Ron Payne, and Shy Tuttle, for instance. It's a position of immense need.

 

Linebackers
Perryman 555 snaps, 29 targets, 62.3 PRWT, 74.2 PFF
Deablo 464 snaps, 36 targets, 123.6 PRWT, 58.4 PFF
Brown 425 snaps, 34 targets, 104.8 PRWT, 40.2 PFF
Masterson 344 snaps, 15 targets, 141.0 PRWT, 30.8 PFF
Langi 57 snaps, 6 targets, 90.1 PRWT, 33.8 PFF
*Butler 21 snaps, 1 target, 118.7 PRWT, 43.7 PFF
*Bolton 1 snap.

Under Contract
Divine Deablo 1.4m
Darien Butler 0.9m
Luke Masterson 0.9m
Kana'i Mauga 0.8m

Free Agents
ILB Denzel Perryman 3.0m
ILB Jayon Brown 1.3m
ILB Micah Kiser 1.1m
OLB Jordan Jenkins 1.1m
LB Curtis Bolton 0.9m
Harvey Langi

Strengths: Deablo has shown some promise; Perryman, despite his age, was the best LB on the squad.
Weaknesses: Pass coverage.

Moves: Perryman has undoubtedly been the Raiders' best LB in years. But injuries and age are catching up with him. He has missed 27 games over the past six seasons, for instance. He's still solid, but the Raiders probably want to look elsewhere for an upgrade. It's been a position neglected for too long. Bizarrely, Nicholas Morrow is one of the best OLBs to hit free agency this offseason (market value $3.8m). Other possible FA options: Lorenzo Carter, Kyzir White, Elandon Roberts, Kaden Elliss, Anthony Barr. Another position where a big signing and a draft pick devoted to the problem would go a long way. I call LB a massive position of need for the Raiders.

 

Raiders sign Adam Butler, former Patriot DI, to a reserve/future contract. He had a solid career in New England but was released by Miami with an injury issue. Missed all of 2022. A quick search of his social media shows he had a shoulder/biceps issue, had surgery, and was doing clapping pushups in November. So, he may be a sneaky addition to an otherwise weak defensive front.

 

Now that Carr is officially gone, the Raiders have the difficult task of finding a new franchise QB. How difficult?

You might recall that I have a QB Impact stat that measures not how good a QB is but how favorably the QB is likely to be regarded.

Since 2004, here are the top single season scores by Raiders QBs. They must have started at least one game in the season to qualify.

2016 Carr 35.3
2020 Carr 24.2
2015 Carr 20.0
2019 Carr 18.7
2021 Carr 18.7
2018 Carr 11.9
2017 Carr 9.9
2022 Carr 9.9
2010 Campbell 9.0
2011 Campbell 6.8
2022 Stidham 6.3
2004 Gannnon 4.6

In Raiders history, here are the highest cumulative scores:
Carr 110.8
Gannon 83.8
Lamonica 76.8
Stabler 52.4
Hostetler 32.7
Plunkett 18.6
Campbell 13.3
George 10.3
Schroeder 8.5

Some of these guys played in a different era. Lamonica's TD/INT ratio would be horrible now, but it wasn't when he played. He was consistently above average in both TD% and in low INT%. Similarly, Plunkett and Davidson threw more INTs than TDs. Flores had only 92 TDs vs. 83 INTs. Different eras.

 

Thank you Derek Carr for keeping my fandom alive the last nine tough years. If ONLY Penn did not allow his one sack in 2016.

 

Will be keeping tabs on Saints games. Brissett and Levis as stopgap and for the future... Not ideal but that is what I think will happen.

 

@puffyusaf#2 - I agree with all you wrote. Carr was very good but just not enough to put us over the top. He was compared to Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins in some write-ups. New Orleans should win the NFC South with him at the helm.

Last night I watched on NFL-TV the last game the previous season against the Chargers. Could not suppress a smile. A bit depressing too.

 

"All" FA Options: QB
Based off last year's numbers, here are the simple tiers. It will be hard to improve over Carr without breaking the bank. But there are options that will not be huge downgrades that will leave the Raiders with tens of millions of dollars to spend on other positions. Numbers in parentheses are the market value from Spotrac.com.

Tier 1
Jacoby Brissett(5.4m MV)

Tier 2
Mac Jones, Jimmy G (34.9m MV), [Tom Brady], [Derek Carr], Marcus Mariota

Tier 3
Teddy Bridgewater, Cooper Rush

Tier 4
Andy Dalton (6.8m MV), Sam Darnold (5.1m MV), Taylor Heinicke (19.8m MV)

Tier 5
Gardner Minschew, Drew Lock, +Baker Mayfield (6.5m MV)

Tier 6
Carson Wentz, M. White, Nick Mullens, Nathan Peterman, Trace McSorley

Tier 1: Give me Brissett all day long. If he'll take anything close to 5.4m, I'd do it. Two years at 10m each would leave us a lot of cap to work with.
I'd actually take Mariota over Jimmy G. And I'd take Bridgewater over anyone else on the list.

 

I would have taken Brissett but it is NOW Jimmy G.

 

Yikes. Three years, 72.5m.

 

When healthy, he’s top 10. He just misses so much time.

 

Comprarison: 2022 stats
QB1 80 simple rating, 56 QBR
QB2 74 simple rating, 54 QBR
-QB1 is Carr with the Raiders; QB2 is Garropolo with the 49ers. So, Carr had a better season.


Jimmy G: 2020-2021
QB2 61 simple rating, 54 QBR
QB2 84 simple rating, 53 QBR
-Jimmy G was consistent in his QBR, just slightly above average. Not better than Carr's 2022.

2019
QB2 88 simple rating, 61 QBR
-Jimmy G was simply awesome in 2019. But Carr posted a 64 QBR that season.

Thoughts: The big difference is Jimmy G has gone 4-2 in the playoffs. His regular season record is 40-17. I think he and Carr are very much on par with one another statistically. So, let's see if winning QBs win and losing QBs lose.

 

Raiders Moves
IN Jimmy G QB
IN Brandon Facyson CB
IN Marcus Epps S
IN Josh Jacobs RB (franchise)
IN Brandon Parker OL
IN Ameer Abdullah RB
IN Jesper Horstead TE

Facyson - simple rating of 60 in 2022. If he's the replacement for Rock Ya-Sin, that's a sizeable downgrade. Ya-Sin's 72 simple rating was solid. Facyson is, however, a big upgrade over Sidney Jones (35 simple rating).

Epps - he's an iron man, or at least he was in 2022. His 75 simple rating falls well short of Duron Harmon's 85.

 

A quick note on the simple rating. I'm using a combination of availability (snap %) and performance (PFF grade) to arrive at it. It's not perfect, but it's good for a quick comparison of players. All based on 2022 stats.

80+ excellent
70+ starter
60+ rotation player

 

There are comments on the 'net that they are one and the same. A lateral move.

 

That's how I see it. But there's a reason Carr has made more money. He doesn't miss games. I'm just going to side with puffy and withhold judgment. We'll see what he can do with Adams and some other weapons.