Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Carr's career record, by month:
September: 14-16
October: 12-20
Through two months, his teams are in a hole, below .500.

November: 19-19
December: 16-23
Treading water through November - then a collapse in December.

January: 3-1

 

Carr benched for the last two games. Likely to be cut before the deadline to save $32 (?) mil and a dead cap hit of only $5 mil.

 

Right thing to do. He and McDaniels don't seem able to get it done together.

 

Agree @puffyusa#2 on your thoughts. I too dig Carr as a person who fully bled Silver And Black. The red zone woes are mostly attributed to him unfortunately. I don't know if he hesitates, does not like the situation or whatever. That pick against the Rams which could have won it? That was just unforgiveable. That errant throw to Renfrow against the Steelers? He probably would have scored or at least gave Carlson a shot for us to go into OT. Also those throw it into the ground instead of taking a shot at the end zone on crucial downs? Ugh...

Crazy thought? Carr comes back at a much lesser salary? A major restructure of his contract? Garropolo...who can manage and will be the most handsome Raider QB ever? LOL! I think Brady is shot.

I have a feeling Jacobs' rant at the end of our last loss contributed to Carr being benched. Stuff about not making plays... Then there's Moreau's bonehead penalties.

 

I think we've seen the problem(s).

Carr isn't putting this team over the top.
We can save tens of millions to put toward a much more severe problem...

That defense sucks.
We probably need another defender at all three levels.
A DB, LB, and a DL.

 

Way too early mock draft. Tried to load up on what the Raiders need.

 

Agree... Carr is a good QB but not great to the point where he will take a team to the next level. A field general who will keep/build on a lead. Defense has to be rebuilt in key areas. Wipe away the terrible drafts we've had before. Yesterday we were missing our aces in Perryman, Jones and some familiar faces in the secondary who've been injured all season long.

Stidham did not play cautious and has the mobility to escape or improvise (2016 Carr). Not a long term solution but he can more than fill in for the time being.

 

2019 Draft Class

The Raiders have some decisions to make on their 2019 draft class. Some have already been made, some others might be forced, but this was a wild draft for the Raiders. I’m going to include what I wrote about these guys in 2019.

It all started with: Clelin Ferrell

Spoiler

Oliver has picked up 42 QB hits, 30 TFL, 14.5 sacks in 52 starts (61 games). Allen was a Pro Bowler as a rookie, picked up 70 QB hits, 36 TFL, and 26.5 sacks in 43 starts and 57 games. Either would have been an upgrade in terms of stats: Ferrell has 32 QB hits, 15 TFL, and 10 sacks. 30 starts, 58 games.

Ferrell started off with a 6 AV, then a 4, and then he was down to 1. I think he’ll be higher in year 4, but he was mostly in line with those comparisons – better than Curry, equal to Morgan, and behind the other two.

Then I updated that after some more research:

[13 games, 08 starts, 5.5 sacks, 14 QB hits]

[16 games, 15 starts, 6.0 sacks, 18 hits, 7 AV 10% PB]

[12 games, 10 starts, 5.0 sacks, 17 hits, 5 AV, 38% PB]

[15 games, 15 starts, 5.5 sacks, 18 hits, 8 AV, 33% pb]

What did he do?

Didn’t get the starts, sacks, QB hits, or AV, and he didn’t sniff the Pro Bowl. He’s an adequate rotational player at this point in his career.

Overall Grade: D+

 

Josh Jacobs

Spoiler

In Jacobs's rookie season, he went for 1150 on the ground, 20-166 through the air, and had 7 total TDs. Perfect.

Upside of 1500 and 10? How about 1653 and 12 - but in 17 games?

How about 2-time Pro Bowler, NFL rushing champ?

Jacobs has piled up 4740 on the ground, 40 rushing TDs, 160 receptions, 1152 yards, and has posted some "black ink" as a league leader - rushing yards, longest rush, touches, yards from scrimmage, and rushing yards per game.

Two-time Pro Bowler, All-Rookie 2nd teamer who has battled through tough injuries to set Raiders records and lead the league in rushing.

Grade: A

 

Johnathan Abram

Spoiler

It should be a concern when your first round CB is being touted as not a great fit who has very average comparables.

Special teams ace for a first rounder? It was doomed from the start.

Abram has been on three teams now, and it seems that his attitude might be one of the biggest problems. He piled up tackles with the Raiders, had 9 QB hits, and 8 TFL. But he also had just 3 INTs and was absolutely torched in coverage in his first three seasons with the Raiders, allowing nearly 80% of passes thrown his way to be completed, for 7 TDs on 106 attempts.

Grade: D

 

Trayvon Mullen

Spoiler

He performed about as well as those two in their first three seasons.

I don't know what Mullen's issue was. Injuries?

He did almost exactly that, delivering 45 games (38 projected), 35 starts (28 projected), 4 INTs (as projected), and a total of 10 AV (12 projected).

I don't know what happened with Mullen. He struggled at first, seemed to be figuring things out, dealt with injury, and was gone. He had 4 INTs in his first 31 games with the Raiders. He also held opponents to 78.3, 92.3, and 84.2 PRWT - that's good. He's no longer with the team and hasn't established himself as a starter in Arizona. Had he been a third rounder, he would have been a steal.

Grade: C-

 

Maxx Crosby

Spoiler

He may have needed some bulk early, but he has quickly established himself as one of the best edge players in the league.

I projected 57 games and 25 starts in 5 years. He has blown those away in four seasons. I projected 16 sacks. He has more than doubled that.

Oops. Totally wrong on the last part.

Grade: A

Factoring in his durability, pass rush ability, and run stopping, he’s arguably the best defensive player taken in the draft. An absolute homerun.

 

Isaiah Johnson

Spoiler

He was more Wilson and less Witherspoon.

Limiting factor seemed to hit him hard.

In year 2, with more pass targets, he was exposed. In 21 targets, he allowed 13 completions, 148 yards, and 2 INTs for a PRWT of 114.8.

He actually didn’t hit these low projections. He had 19 games but 0 starts, 0 ints, 5 PD, and 1 AV.[/quote]

Johnson came in with pretty low expectations and he basically played to those expectations. Not a failure, by any measure, but he was a long shot to make it in the NFL longterm.

Grade: D

 

Foster Moreau

Spoiler

I sold Moreau pretty short for a long time, repeatedly calling him a blocking TE. But I did come up with some projections as a rookie:

That’s 14 games, 3 starts, 15 receptions, 189 yards, and a TD on 25 targets.

While he has made some frustrating mistakes, I think Moreau is one of the best football players on the team. He also seems like an incredibly good teammate. He ranks 2nd in games played among TEs from that draft class, fourth in receptions, yards, and TDs. Just a reminder: he was the 10th TE off the board in that draft.

Grade: B+

 

Hunter Renfrow

Spoiler

I didn't know the guy in college. Shame on me. Gcclaker was leading the bandwagon from day 1

When I finally came to my senses, here's what I wrote (august 5, 2019):

One Pro Bowl, one 100-reception, 1000-yard season, and some injuries. Rwnfrow has had a fantastic career for his draft position, has the 7th most receptions in his draft class, 7th most receiving TDs, and 7th most receiving yards. He's also the lowest-drafted player in that 2019 class to make a Pro Bowl.

Grade: A


Quinton Bell

Spoiler

Dude just re-emerged for the Falcons, played on 61 snaps, and picked up a tackle for loss. Good for him, and here's hoping he continues to get some reps. Not bad for a 230th selection

Grade: D

 

Three Raiders made the PFF All-Pro Team.
Carlson, Jacobs, and Adams.

Crosby earned second team honors, as did AJ Cole.

At least two former Raiders earned All Pro honors, too. Keisean Nixon was named the top KR and Andrew DePaola was the LS.

 

2022 Draft Class
Only the Miami Dolphins entered the 2022 draft with less draft capital than the Raiders. Las Vegas did not make a selection until late in the third round.

Round 3, Pick 90 (3.90)
Dylan Parham
The Raiders' first pick (in the third round, #90) wound up claiming All-Rookie Second Team Honors. And only four OL (three of them were drafted ahead of him) accrued more AV as a rookie. He did allow 6 sacks, which is too many, but it was a promising start (61.9 PFF grade).
Grade: B

4.122
Zamir White
White's 17 carries and 70 yards aren't exactly eye-popping, but those 70 yards were good enough for 17th most rushing yards among rookies. Among RBs, it was 13th best. Unfortunately, White was draft 8th among RBs. He contributed nothing in the passing game and totaled 103 snaps. There's a great explanation for this, of course. Josh Jacobs had one of the greatest rushing seasons in Raiders' history. White's rookie season was promising.
Grade: D

4.126 Neil Farrell
Farrell didn't step onto the field until week 5. He didn't crack the starting lineup, but he did manage 20% or more defensive snaps in six games. He picked up 2 QBH. He came off the board 8th among DTs in the draft and was outplayed by all but one of those drafted ahead of him. Among the 10 DTs drafted after him, he outplayed all but two. Yet his overall PFF grade was 35.5, which is not good at all. So, he was probably a low-average pick for that spot.
Grade: D+

5.175
Matthew Butler
Butler played 45 combined snaps in three games. For the rest of the season, he stepped on the field only three times, totaled 11 snaps, and made little impact outside one QBH. He was drafted 13th among DTS, and only one of the five DTs drafted after him made an impact. His 51.6 PFF grade is superior to Farrell's, and he was drafted later, so his rookie performance was probably even better than Farrell's.
Grade: C


7.238
Thayer Munford
Picked 43rd among offensive linemen, he was one of less than 60 rookies to appear in all 17 games. He finished 19th among rookie OL in AV. In 369 snaps, he allowed only 1 sack and committed 4 penalties. His PFF grade of 63.2 is quite good. This was a great rookie performance.
Grade: A

7.250
Brittain Brown
Brown appeared in 6 games, which is probably already a win for a rookie drafted in the 7th round. But the end of the draft was relatively stacked this season. Among the 12 players drafted after Brown, all but one saw more playing time, and at least two of them became full time starters. Perhaps historically, this is what one would expect from a late round pick, but with a team otherwise set at RB, one has to wonder why the Raiders didn't go elsewhere.
Grade: Incomplete

 

Free Agency...

Quarterback
Derek Carr 305-502, 3522 yards, 24 TDs, 14 INTs, 86.3 Rating, 55.6 QBR, 102 rushing yards.

Jarrett Stidham 53-83, 656 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs, 89.2 Rating, 58.8 QBR, 84 rushing yards.


Under Contract
Derek Carr 38.9m

Free Agents
Jarrett Stidham .8m

Strengths: Above average starter, backup who showed some promise.
Weaknesses: Utterly fractured relationship between the franchise QB and team brass.

Moves: I'd offer Stidham a contract with incentives based on starts. There are some decent Free Agent QBs, but many of them are either not obviously better than Stidham (whose performance numbers are eerily similar to Carr's) or would cost a chunk of cash. That money needs to go elsewhere. I would look for a QB early (though probably not with my first pick) and see about bringing in one of the vets below who are definitely backups or otherwise out of a job.

QB Market Values (per Spotrac)
Tom Brady 40.8m
-he played on a $15m contract, but that was part of a larger $30m per season deal. His Passer Rating was 90.7 (good) but his QBR was 52.6 (very average, lower than Carr and Stidham).

Mayfield - no thanks
-His passer rating has been 83 and 79 the past two seasons, and his QBR has been sub 36 the past two seasons.

Darnold - no thanks
-A career 78.2 passer rating and never a QBR above 49. He's a below average QB in the NFL.

Jimmy G - $34.9m
-Garoppolo is an interesting QB. His career passer rating is 99.6, and he has been 100+ in two seasons as a starter. His QBR has fallen to a consistent 53-55 over the past three seasons, while he has missed 18 games. It's not obvious that he's better than Carr, he's a huge injury risk, and his price tag is too high to merit the move.

Bridgewater - $6.5m previous
-Bridgewater has posted a career 90.5 passer rating, and it has been between 85 and 99.1 over the past four seasons. His QBR has been between 47.4 and 56.8. He's probably a just below average QB right now. He wouldn't win games for the Raiders, but he could be a stopgap.

Keenum
Relegated to backup duties over the past three seasons, Keenum has consistently been well below average in QBR (<46 each of the past five seasons), but he has flashed a solid passer rating in three of the past six seasons. He's another guy like Bridgewater who would not win games, but he could be a stopgap.

Rudolph
-Mason Rudolph is interesting only because he's young, might be very cheap, and might have a lot to offer. He just hasn't shown it in the NFL (80.9 passer rating, sub 40 QBR in two of three seasons).

Brissett
-Among possibly cheap FA QBs, Brissett's QBR jump out - 60.1 this season, consistently between 48 and 58 the three seasons prior. That's average to slightly above average. He has mobility as a QB (three seasons of 200+ yards rushing and 15 career TDs). He does have some possibly serious injury history (knee, hand).

Flacco
-Maybe if Gruden were at the helm, I could see this work. Flacco will be 38 years old, has a 3-14 record over the past four seasons, and has been at best an average QB since 2015.

Dalton
-I don't know what Dalton's plans are, but he has certainly struggled since early career success in Cincinnati. He has been mostly below average as a QB since 2017, with a 27-42 record, 85.7 passer rating, and QBRs consistently in the 40s.

Mac Jones?
I'll toss his name on the list because he had a solid rookie season with McDaniels(92.5 rating, 10-7 record, 50.9 QBR), but he was bad in year 2 (84.8, 6-8, 36.2). He's also not a FA.

 

I should have posted that when I first wrote it. Let me dump all the stuff I've been working on so far...

Offensive Line
Dylan Parham 1037 snaps, 5 penalties, 6 sacks allowed, 61.9 PFF
-showed a lot of promise as a rookie, has some work to do to take it to the next level.

Kolton Miller 1036 snaps, 5 penalties, 4 sacks allowed, 84.1 PFF
-another strong season from the Raiders' clearcut best OL

Andre James 965 snaps, 3 penalties, 2 sacks allowed, 62.8 PFF
-more steady but not impressive work from James

Jermaine Eluemunor 941 snaps, 10 penalties, 3 sacks allowed, 75.3 PFF
-played well despite a ton of penalties

Alex Bars 853 snaps, 3 penalties, 5 sacks allowed, 45.4 PFF
-the weakest link along the starters, Bars's spot needs an upgrade

Thayer Munford 370 snaps, 4 penalties, 1 sack allowed, 63.2 PFF
-solid work as a rookie

John Simpson - gone to Baltimore
Lester Cotton - gone to Miami

Hroniss Grasu 68 snaps, 2 penalties, 1 sack allowed, 56.1 PFF

Jordan Meredith 41 snaps, 0 penalties, 1 sack allowed, 63.8 PFF

Justin Herron 17 snaps, 1 penalty, 0 sacks allowed, 55.4 PFF

Jackson Barton 1 snap, 0, 0, 60.0 PFF

C Adre James 5.5m (1.9m)

LG Dylan Parham 1.2m (.7m), G Jordan Meredith .9m
LT Kolton Miller 17.7 (24.4), LT Justin Herron 1.0m
RT Thayer Munford .9m, T Matthew Diaz .8m, T Vitaliy Gurman .8m, T Sebastian Gutierrez .8m

Free Agents
T Brandon Parker UFA 3.5m
RT Jermaine Eluemunor 1.3m (MV 5.6m)

Strengths: LT, youth.
Weaknesses: RG, RT

If the Raiders are willing to spend on Eluemunor ($5.6m is his market value per PFF), they could go into the draft with only one need: Right Guard.
This was a unit that finished 10th according to PFF and helped Josh Jacobs run for 1600 yards. While they did surrender 35 sacks, Alex Bars allowed 5 of them, while Parham allowed 6.

Wide Receiver
Davante Adams 14.7m
180 targets, 100-1516-14, 95.5 PRWT, 90.1 PFF
Hunter Renfrow 13.1m
50 targets, 36-330-2, 69.6 PRWT, 65.6 PFF
Chris Lacy .9m
n/a
DJ Turner .9m
1 target, 39.6 PRWT, 41.8 PFF
Isaiah Zuber .9m
---The Raiders return two of their top three receivers in Adams and Renfrow. Renfrow battled through some injuries, but Adams was electric, providing highlights and all-Pro skills.

Free Agents
Mack Hollins 2.0m (MV: $2.4m)
94 targets, 57-690-4, 84.1 PRWT, 63.8 PFF
Keelan Cole 1.3m
21 targets, 10-141-1, 85.6 PRWT, 47.9 PFF
---In my mind, this is an easy call. If Mack Hollins can be had for $2.4m, you sign him. I just think he has raised the price tag a bit more than that.

Strengths: WR1 - still about the best in the business
Weaknesses: WR3

Moves: Offer Hollins a contract, offer the other FAs minimum deals. Drafting a WR late isn't a bad idea.

TIGHT END
Darren Waller 12.0m
43 targets, 28-388-3, 97.8 PRWT, 72.4 PFF
Cole Fotheringham .8m
n/a
---
Free Agents
Jesper Horsted .9m
4 targets, 3-19, 84.4 PRWT, 59.6 PFF
Foster Moreau .8m (MV: $9m)
54 targets, 33-420-2, 82.3 PRWT, 61.1 PFF

Strengths: One of the best in the business when he's on the field.
Weaknesses: Losing Moreau is going to be a big blow. And he's almost certainly gone.

Moves: Horsted and Fotheringham have showed some ability, but I wouldn't be confident with either as the TE2, especially with Waller's injury history. I'd be drafting a TE in the middle rounds. I'd also look for a cheaper veteran who can come in and play some snaps from day 1, like Kyle Rudolph.

RUNNING BACK
Under Contract
Brandon Bolden 2.9m
82 snaps, 26 plays, 123 yards, 1 TD, 1 broken tackle, 43 yards added. 130.1 PRWT. 50.9 PFF.

Zamir White 1.1m
40 snaps, 17 plays, 70 yards, 0 TD, 0 broken tackles. 31 yards added. Not targeted. 65.8 PFF.

Austin Walter 1.0m
0 snaps.

Brittain Brown .9m
0 snaps on offense. 71 on special teams.

Sincere McCormick .8m
0 snaps.

Free Agents
Josh Jacobs 12.8m MV
821 snaps, 393 plays, 2053 yards, 12 TD, 33 brokent tackle, 1195 yards added. 92.7 PRWT. 91.6* PFF.

Ameer Abdullah 1.2m last season
175 snaps, 36 plays, 231 yards, 1 TD, 2 broken tackles, 202 yards added, 104.6 PRWT. 66.4 PFF.

Jakob Johnson 1.5m last season
301 snaps, 6 plays, 10 yards, 0 TD, 1 broken tackles, 7 yards added. 79.2 PRWT. No PFF Grade.

Strengths: without Jacobs, not much. White showed some flash as a bruiser.

Weaknesses: Missing a top RB, top blocker, and 3rd down back. The Raiders' backfield is missing all key pieces.

Josh Jacobs is this team's priority. Probably more important for 2023 than the QB spot, Jacobs has to be back. I'd franchise him if I can't make a smart deal with him. The franchise tag is $12.5m. I'd be willing to do that for a year unless he's interested in three years at about $30m. He has a lot of mileage, but he's only 25 in 2023. After that, things are trickier. I imagine the team is happy with Johnson and not unhappy with Abdullah, who also handled the bulk of kickoff returns. Johnson will probably be back. Next season, White probably sees more snaps, gets more involved in the offense. Brandon Bolden is the only player who seems not to have much of a role compared to '22.