Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Top ten plays from Vegas's season...
You can disagree with the list, I suppose, but four of the top ten plays are Henry Ruggs.

http://www.raiders.com/video/nfln-las-vegas-raiders-top-10-plays-from-the-2020-season-highlights

 

DEFENSIVE EDGE (19.5/30)*

There is only one more disappointing positional group on the Raiders – and we’ll get to them. The Raiders are loaded with talent at the edge, but their results are startlingly bad. Clelin Ferrell looks like a quality starter at absolute worst and like a perennial Pro Bowler more and more. Crosby is a good pass rusher who needs a new scheme to hide his shortcomings in other areas of the game. Nassib may have been more effective in all aspects of the game than Crosby. Key showed flashes, but that has been the story of his disappointing career to date.

It is unclear what Valoaga and Green offer, but the Raiders have some fascinating players they might want to bring back in Beasley, Smith, and Vickers.

On the Roster (2020)
Vic Beasley, Maxx Crosby, Clelin Ferrell, Arden Key, Carl Nassib, Chris Smith, Kendal Vickers, Jeremiah Valoaga**, Takk McKinley

Under Contract (2021+)
Ferrell, Nassib, Key, Crosby, Valoaga, Gerri Green*

Positional Strength
D+: This is a position where the pieces are there, but schemes have to adjust. Ferrell, Crosby, and Nassib can get the job done.

Recommendation
I imagine that many Defensive Coordinators would love to have Ferrell, Crosby, and Nassib as their edge players. This is a position that could turn around incredibly quickly with the existing personnel with just some health and better schemes. Chris Smith far and away led the team in rush quality - in very limited snaps. It was a bit anomalous, but his last three seasons have shown a good ability to rush the passer. If Vic Beasley is healthy, he could reclaim his solid post-All Pro play that saw him pick up 18 sacks in three seasons with Atlanta. He, of course, added 15.5 in his All Pro season. McKinley is worth the risk on a short-term, prove it deal. If he is anywhere near the player he was from 2017-2019, he would give the team’s pass rush a shot of adrenaline.


Would it be foolish to think that a new scheme and some health would make this position a strength of the unit? Perhaps, but it’s worth re-signing Beasley and taking a middle rounder at the Edge. Oakland has done well picking up DL prospects after the first day of the draft.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2021.
**Practice Squad

LINEBACKER (26/37.5)*
Two high profile signings did not bring the success the Raiders were looking for. Littleton struggled mightily early, was not playing his ideal role, and seemed to battle injuries. Kwiatkoski was excellent but missed time. And Nicholas Morrow gave the staff a lot to think about after a breakthrough season. There is reason to be very hopeful for this position going into 2021.

On the Roster (2020)
Cory Littleton, Raekwon McMillan, Nicholas Morrow, Kyle Wilber, James Onwualu, Javin White, Tanner Muse*, Nick Kwiatkoski*, Ukeme Eligwe**, Vic Beasley

Under Contract (2021+)
Muse, White, Littleton, Kwiatkoski, Eligwe

Positional Strength
D+: Littleton and Kwiatkoski will be starters next season. None of the other players under contract are good fits for the SAM spot.

Recommendation
Cory Littleton (WILL) and Kwiatkoski (MIKE) will hold down two starting spots. Nicholas Morrow is a WILL, too. Unfortunately, Muse and White probably are, as well. If Vic Beasley is healthy, he has played the SAM role in the 4-3 under defense DC Gus Bradley runs. The smart money is not on an effective Beasley, however. Morrow is a bit redundant with the current squad – too many WILL backers. But he and Littleton are the only ones who have proven themselves at the NFL level. If Morrow would come back for less than $4m a season, he’s a great guy to return.


The Raiders should consider a SAM with an early (1st or 2nd round) pick, but if the best ones are gone, there is a cluster of good LB talent in the third through fifth rounds. It’s also a spot where a decent Free Agent could come in and shore up the spot for a season while the younger guys develop. There is every reason to think that Muse and/or White could serve as OLBs, too.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2021.
**Practice Squad

 

Current Starters - Defense (on roster players only)
DT: Hurst
NT: Scott**
LE: Crosby
RE: Ferrell
SAM: Eligwe**
MIKE: Kwiatkoski
WILL: Littleton

** - these are not players you want in those spots

 

CORNERBACK (24/37.5)*
CBs often take some time and seasoning to come into their own in the NFL. The Raiders are loaded with promising talent, and both their starters showed they can handle press coverage. But the Raiders didn’t run it enough, and injuries derailed Arnette’s rookie season. Mullen, on the other side, was one of the best press cover guys in the league. So the pieces are in place.

On the Roster (2020)
Damon Arnette, Isaiah Johnson, Nevin Lawson, Trayvon Mullen, Keisean Nixon, Amik Robertson, Daryl Worley, Kemah Siverand*?, DJ Killings**

Under Contract (2021+)
Arnette, Mullen, Robertson, Johnson, Nixon, Siverand, Killings

Positional Strength
D: DC Bradley runs press/bail, where Arnette and Mullen should shine. The position is deep.

Recommendation
There is no such thing as too many solid cornerbacks. But this may be less a position of need than it seemed to be. Looking at situations and assignments shows that the Raiders have one CB position nailed down – Trayvon Mullen is going to be very good. Arnette has the talent to be even better, but he needs health and practice reps.

Worley may not be asked to return, but when cheap, he’s a solid addition. The Raiders could try to raid the Chargers Free Agent class. Michael Davis would be a fantastic addition. Tevaughn Campbell is another decent option. Some Raiders fans are clamoring for Richard Sherman. That would be a risky proposition. A high floor, ready to play CB or a project with a high ceiling in the middle rounds wouldn't be a bad draft move.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2021.
**Practice Squad

 

Current Starters - Defense (on roster players only)
DT: Hurst
NT: Scott**
LE: Crosby
RE: Ferrell
SAM: Eligwe**
MIKE: Kwiatkoski
WILL: Littleton
CB: Arnette
CB: Mullen

** - these are not players you want in those spots

 

SAFETY (24/37.5)*

On the Roster (2020)
Johnathan Abram, Erik Harris, Jeff Heath, Lamarcus Joyner, Dallin Leavitt, Rashaan Gaulden**

Under Contract (2021+)
Heath, Abram, Gaulden, Joyner

Positional Strength
C-: Abram is a solid run support safety who has to work – big time – on coverage. Heath has the ballhawk ability to make plays. Joyner is not a bad third option at safety, but he’s overpriced for what he offers. His salary alone makes up more than half the team’s spending at the Safety spot. Abram should improve, and everyone should benefit from a more consistent pass rush.

Recommendation
It is time to move on from Lamarcus Joyner. Abram and Heath are good enough in their respective roles that adding a Free Agent should bolster the group.

The Raiders should pick up a safety in the draft, too.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2021.
**Practice Squad

 

Current Starters - Defense (on roster players only)
DT: Hurst
NT: Scott**
LE: Crosby
RE: Ferrell
SAM: Eligwe**
MIKE: Kwiatkoski
WILL: Littleton
CB: Arnette
CB: Mullen
SS: Heath
FS: Abram

** - these are not players you want in those spots

 

Last post for a bit.

Current Starters - Defense (on roster players only)
DT: Hurst (11-C/$1m)
NT: Scott**(4-F/$.9m)
LE: Crosby (9-D/$1.1m)
RE: Ferrell (10-D/$8.6m)
SAM: Eligwe**(4-F/$.9m)
MIKE: Kwiatkoski(10-D/$7m)
WILL: Littleton(11-C/$13.8m)
CB: Arnette(7.5-F/$3.1m)
CB: Mullen(9-D/$2m)
SS: Heath(10.5-C/$3.2m)
FS: Abram(4.5-F/$3.2m)

Unit Breakdown
D- Overall
$34.8m

 

Free Agent Thoughts - Defense
DE: Takk McKinley 8.5, Vic Beasley 7.4, {Chris Smith}
-I'm not sure how expensive Chris Smith would be, but if Beasley and/or McKinley are coming for that price, I'm not interested in either as an Edge player.

DI: Hankins (2.9m), {Maliek Collins?}
-If there is a position to splurge on for the defense, this is it. The Raiders could get good play out of Hankins for that price, and Collins makes sense on another one-year deal. Sheldon Rankins is looking overpriced. Shelby Harris reuniting with the Raiders would make a lot of sense, but he could make serious bank. It's not clear who the best available option would be.

OLB: Leonard Floyd (13.1m), {Nicholas Morrow}, Takk McKinley, Vic Beasley
-I love Nicholas Morrow's development, but if there's one guy to spend big on, it's Leonard Floyd. McKinley and/or Beasley might end up getting more than it makes sense to pay them, given their histories.

CB: {Michael Davis}, {Tevaughn Campbell}
-Davis is 26, has started 5 games over the past two seasons, and he has 5 INTs and 23 PDs. Campbell would likely be cheaper, but he's an ERFA. Either could slot in as a backup CB.

S: {Erik Harris}
-Harris could be back - on a slimmer deal than he just completed. He is not an ideal starter, and his 26 starts over the last two season are a testament to lack of other options and injuries. But he's not bad. He's good with the ball in his hands, and he can be a solid player in situations.

 

Possible help early in the draft - from WalterFootball's Mock

1.17 Kwity Paye, DE/DT, Michigan
-Terrific athlete with tremendous quickness and speed. He could kick in at DT and also play Edge.
-with the current squad (two posts ago), he would move Hurst to NT and see time at DT and Edge. Nice upgrade.

2.48 Derion Kendrick, CB, Clemson
-Makings of a shutdown CB. Top-rated CB in coverage at PFF for 2020.
-Could push either starter for their job.

3.80 Caden Sterns, S, Texas
-He has missed quite a few games - seven in the past two seasons.
-Great selection for a possible nickel and pushes Abram to get his head on straight.

 

Bradley looks to have the pedigree to be a very good DC. Hope he gets more out of Collins and Littleton.

 

I've been spending way too much time thinking about what LV could do.

Glad to see Williams is released. I like the guy, but we need that salary room.
Move Mariota. I think they can squeeze a third out of him.
Release Joyner. He's okay, but we need cap space.

 

I'm preparing an unnecessarily detailed offseason FA/Draft plan. Haha.

 

Move Joyner to Safety. Mocks has us picking Notre Dame LB. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.

 

Defensive Interior
2020: Collins 6.25, Hankins 5.9, Hurst 0.83, Irving .72
Total: $13.0m

2021 Under contract: Hurst 1.0 Niles Scott .85
Total: 1.85

NEEDS: Another DT, probably a starter. The Raiders don't trust Hurst and/or he's been injured. I like him long-term, but the Raiders want a vet.

OPTIONS:
Run Stuffers: Johnathan Hankins($?), Poona Ford (RFA)
Situational Rushers: David Irving (cheap)

2021 Recommendation: Re-sign Hankins at (3.5m), Draft a DI. The Raiders need some pressure, but Leonard Williams is the only one to offer that reliably. If they don't spend big on him, they should re-sign their run stuffer, grab a pass rusher (Irving for 1m), and draft a rookie (in 4th round – a run stuffer).

Total: 6.5m

Change: Save 6.5m, Add Hankins, Add Irving, Draft Neil Farrell Jr. ~$1m salary.

Depth Chart
NT: Hankins, Farrell
DT: Hurst, Irving
Hankins brings good run stuffing ability, and Farrell, projected to go in rounds 3-5 should, should become a run stuffer who can play early downs.
Hurst and Irving are intriguing options. Hurst has already played at a high level in his limited time. He just has to earn the staff's trust. Irving, on the other hand, showed great pass rush ability for a DT.

 

Defensive End
2020: Kendal Vickers .81, Carl Nassib 7.5, Arden Key .75, Maxx Crosby .61, Chris Smith .21, Vic Beasley .16, Clelin Ferrell 1.9, Tak McKinley 0.66
2020 TOTAL (cap hit): 17.67

2021 Under Contract: Ferrell 8.55, Nassib 9.5, Key .92, Crosby .85, Valoaga .85, Gerri Green .78
2021 Total: 21.855

OPTIONS: Crosby and Ferrell are solid, and there's good depth. I think the interior pass rush is more important for 2020, but there are some absolute studs available. Matthew Judon, Shaq Barrett, and JJ Watt lead the way. Tak McKinley and Steven Means are less likely to earn big money, and they'd all be good additions. Damontre Moore could be a solid depth signing.

2021 Recommendations:
Draft an Edge rusher. Maybe two. Paye and Hayes (2.5m, 2.0m).
The Edge Free Agent options are too expensive with the money the Raiders currently have tied up unless McKinley comes on a team friendly deal. Probably drop Green.

Change: Lose 6.8m, Draft Kwity Paye, DE (2.5m), Michigan; Draft Daelin Hayes, DE, Notre Dame (2.0m). Sign Damontre Moore for ~1m.

Depth Chart
DE: Crosby, Paye, Hayes
DE: Ferrell, Nassib, Moore, Key

Counting: -0.3m savings

 

LINEBACKER
2020: Kwiatkoski 7.0, Littelton 3.6, Morrow 3.3, McMillan 1.1, Muse .78, Wilber .74, Eligwe x
TOTAL: 16.5

2021 Under Contract: Littleton 13.7, Kwiatkoski 7.0, Muse 1.0, Eligwe .85, Onwualu .85, Bilal .66, White .66
TOTAL: 24.75

OPTIONS: Get Morrow back. Muse should fight for playing time, but Mychal Kendricks could be a solid depth ILB.

2021 Recommendation:
Re-sign Nicholas Morrow 4m
Bring on Kendricks (1.25m)
Drop Onwualu, Eligwe, and Bilal.
Total: 27.6m

Change: The money is increased, big time, but the Raiders return their best coverage backer and a potential rebound player in Kendricks. 11.1m in salaries added.

Depth Chart:
MLB: Kwiatkoski, Kendricks
OLB: LIttleton, Muse
OLB: Morrow, White

Counting: 11.4m in the hole

 

CORNERBACK
2020: Arnette 2.4, Lawson 1.7, Mullen 1.6, Johnson .84, Robertson .73, Nixon .68, Worley .177, Killings x, White x
TOTAL: 8.18

2021: Arnette 3.0, Mullen 2.0, Johnson 1.0, Robertson .90, Nixon .86, Killings .66, Siverand .66
TOTAL: 9.12

OPTIONS:
Add depth, hoping for a healthy Arnette, Mullen, and Johnson to rise to the occasion. Lawson and Worley could return. Robertson should make season two strides.
There are some higher price CBs out there, like Shaquil Griffin and Ronald Darby and some lower price guys like Quinton Dunbar and Michael Davis (more medium range). Some likely cheap but effective cover CBs are Fabian Moreau and Ryan Neal (ERFA), with Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Darqueze Dennard being just a bit more expensive.
The Raiders have drafted a ton of DBs of late.

2021 Recommendation: Trust the coaching and the young guys. Add Wreh-Wilson, Fabian Moreau, or Dennard. Let's say Moreau for about 1.1m.

Change: Lose 1.3m
Depth Chart:
CB: Arnette, Robertson, Nixon, Killings
CB: Mullen, Johnson, Moreau

Counting: down 12.7m

 

SAFETY
2020: Joyner 9.2, Heath 3.6, Harris 3.3, Abram 2.6, Leavitt .56
Total: 19.2m

2021: Joyner 11.2, Heath 3.15, Abram 3.14, Gaulden .85
Total: 18.34m

OPTIONS:
Dallin Leavitt provides some depth and special teams play.
There are expensive options, like Richard Sherman, Justin Simmons, Anthony Harris, Marcus Williams, and John Johnson.
But there are solid mid- and low-cost players, too. Possible starters in those ranges: Jahleel Addae, Tashaun Gipson, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Rayshawn Jenkins Damontae Kazee.

Recommendations:
Drop Joyner. That would save 10m.
Bring on Rayshawn Jenkins (2.5m?) and a rookie.
It's raiding the Chargers' safeties, but there's a reason for that. Jenkins played well against the pass, has more INTs than TDs allowed over the last two years, has familiarity with Bradley, and plays at least some special teams.

Total: 12.3m

Change: Save 6.9m

Depth Chart
SS: Heath, Jenkins
FS: Abram, Draft

Counting: down 6.8m. Trade Mariota, and the team is under the cap.

 

Raiders allegedly interested in Marcus Williams.

Marcus Williams is a very good player, but I want to warn a few things...
First, his Passer Rating when Targeted has been 106.6, 105.4, and 92.8 over the past three years. He has surrendered 15 TDs and 9 INTs in that time.
By contrast, Marson Lattimore never allowed a rating over 98.4 in a season in that span, and was under 80 in 2019.
Eli Apple allowed a PRWT of below 100 in this time with the Saints.
Ken Crawley was worse than Williams.
Vonn Bell surrendered between 99 and 121 passer ratings and 11 TDs vs. 1 INT, so he's worse than Williams by far.

But if that puts Williams in the middle of the pack on his own team and he costs $10m a season, no thanks.