Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Carr set a career high for passing yards this season.

 

8-8...should be 11-5. Giveaways to KC, San Diego and Miami. No show in Atlanta, could be 12-4.

 

You know, during their losing streak, some fans on Twitter were like, "they're only one play away from another loss...to the Jets." Sure, but they're one play away from wins against KC, the Colts, Chargers, and Miami. They really should have one at least one of those games. Brutal that they didn't.

 

I want to celebrate the things that went well. So, let's start with some team/coach achievements.

The Raiders avoid a losing season, snapping a streak of three such seasons. And it's only their second non-losing season since 2012. They've had a better record only once in the past 17 seasons.

Their 434 points scored were the most since their Super Bowl team in 2002. They finish top 10 in points and yards on offense, marking only the third time they have done that since 2003.

Gruden notches his 114th win, including his 57th with the Raiders. That ties him for 37th all-time in the NFL. His 57 wins are now third best in Raiders history, as he broke a tie with Art Shell with the season finale.

Derek Carr set a career mark for QBR, Passer Rating, and Passing Yards. He also set career bests in rushes, yards, rushing TDs, and rushing 1Ds. He establisehd the second most passing yards in franchise history, the 7th most TD passes, the second best passer rating among QBs with at least 50 attempts, the fifth most 4th Quarter Comebacks, and the second most Game Winning Drives in a single season. He owns almost every career passing mark for the Raiders. Next season, it will make better sense to speak of his place in NFL history, rather than just franchise history. He's now top 75 in his career for passing yards and TDs thrown.

Josh Jacobs got things going in the second half of the season. In his last 9 games, he had 671 yards on the ground, averaged 4.3, and scored 7 TDs. He posted back to back 1000-yard seasons, joining Marcus Allen and Mark van Eeghen as the only Raiders to do that. He has also had back to back 1300-yard from scrimmage seasons. He is currently 19th on the franchise list for rushing yards and 13th in TDs in his career. He finished with the 12th most rushing single season yards in franchise history and the third most single season TDs.

Darren Waller probably had the best single season for a Raiders' TE ever. His final five games of the season were ridiculous: 43 receptions, 654 yards, and 4 TDs, and he eclipsed the century mark in four of the five and hit 200 once. He has back to back 90-reception, 1100-yard seasons. Only Tim Brown can claim that among Raiders, and he joins Todd Christensen as the only Raiders' TEs to ever do that twice. He set the single season receptions record, finished 10th in yards, and 18th in TDs. He's already top 25 in his Raiders career for receptions and yards.

Hunter Renfrow had a solid season returning punts, and he's now 17th all-time on the Raiders' PR list. He's also 7th in punt return average among Raiders with at least 20 punt returns.

Nelson Agholor deserves a lot of respect for what he did this season. He established a career high in yards, tied his best TDs, and smashed his best yards per reception season.

Jason Witten broke Tony Gonzalez's record for most games played by a TE.

Daniel Carlson quiety had himself a year. His 18 FGA and FGM from 20-29 yards is a team record by a mile. Jaeger went 12/12 in 1993. His four 50+ FGM is tied for 5th best in Raiders' history. And his 33 FGM is tied for second best in franchise history. His 94.3% mark on FGs breaks a franchise mark he set in 2018. He likewise set the franchise mark for touchbacks on KOs.

One thing that went well for Trayvon Mullen this season is that he defended passes. His 24 in his career rank 13th in franchise history since the stat has been tracked.

Maxx Crosby's 4 forced fumbles in his career are tied for 19th in franchise history since the stat has been tracked. He also moves up to 23rd in franchise history with 17 sacks. He's 9th in career tackles for loss and 9th in QB Hits.

 

Offense
I use a 15-point scale.
0-5: a roster body
6-9: a starter
10-12: a quality starter
13-14: a Pro Bowl quality player
>14: All-Pro quality player

14.5 Darren Waller - even when they know the ball is coming to him, they can't stop him. 110.0 passer rating when targeted, only 4 drops in 145 targets. His PlayerProfiler "dominator rating" was 29.7% - which was #1 in the NFL. He was the most important pass receiver to any team in the league.

14.0 Rodney Hudson - 73.6 on PFF, 1082 snaps 1 penalty, 1 sack allowed. He remains the heart and soul of that OL.

13.5 Derek Carr - he's top 10 in every metric worth looking at. I think he's right around the 8th best QB in the NFL.

13.5 Josh Jacobs - his 63 red zone carries and 15 goal line carries were both top 3 in the NFL, even in a down year.

13.0 Richie Incognito - 81.4 on PFF. He was just a beast again, but injuries and mileage are catching up with him.

11.5 Kolton Miller - 72.9 on PFF, 960 snaps, 4 penalties, 2 sacks allowed. Only one tackle in his draft class has outperformed him.

10.0 Marcus Mariota - he was rusty in his only game action but showed he can still be effective and give a team plays few can make. He's a competent starter.

10.0 Trent Brown - 68.9 on PFF, 282 snaps, 1 penalty, 0 sacks allowed. Brown was solid when available, but after missing 16 games in two seasons, he made more than $2m per game played.

9.5 Alec Ingold - an Iron Man in the making. He played through some brutal injuries. Despite a drop, his passer rating when targeted was 107.5, and he broke three tackles on just 12 receptions.

9.0 Gabe Jackson - 63.7 on PFF, 1062 snaps, 3 penalties, 0 sacks allowed.

9.0 Hunter Renfrow played consistently, with a 106.8 rating when targeted. In 148 career targets, only one has been intercepted. He was 20th in the league in YAC. He is probably at his peak, but his peak is a solid starter.

8.5 Denzelle Good - 56.7 on PFF, 958 snaps, 5 penalties, 2 sacks allowed.

8.5 Devonate Booker - he broke five tackles on rushes and 2 on receptions, to give him 7 on the season. Looked good as a second back.

8.5 Nelson Agholor - his 113.7 passer rating when targeted was excellent. He posted arguably his best season in the NFL, and his yards per reception were second in the league.

8.5 Tyrell Williams – did not play this season, but don’t forget that his 2019 numbers (with injury) would have been #2 or #3 among receivers on the Raiders this season.

8.5 Jason Witten - his 121.9 passer rating when targeted was elite, better than Waller's.

8.0 Foster Moreau - was a low usage guy in the passing game, but he had a perfect passer rating when targeted. Those 9 targets went for 140 yards, 5 first downs, and no TO.

8.0 Jalen Richard - battled injuries to his least effective season. His sub 74 passer rating when targeted was about 20 points worse than his past two seasons.

8.0 Henry Ruggs - his 102.1 rating when targeted is not good for a WR. He has work to do on his route running, but he attracted a ton of attention and made the most of the times he got the ball into his hands. He had the #1 target separation in the league, according to playerprofiler.com. He could explode next season - in a good way.

6.5 Bryan Edwards - probably the most intriguing rookie. His 137.5 rating when targeted was easily the best on the team. His 15 targets went for 193 yards, 9 first downs, and 0 INTs. He also broke 2 tackles on the 11 receptions he made. Edwards is looking like the best of the big-bodied receivers the Raiders have loved.

5.5 Sam Young - 59.0 on PFF, 383 snaps, 2 penalties, 3 sacks allowed. Young filled in about as well as could be expected. He was the weak link in the starting lineup for the O line.

5.5 Derek Carrier had one target on the season, and it went for a 14-yard first down. He just shows up and blocks. He has now played every game for three straight seasons.

4.5 Brandon Parker - 48.9 on PFF, 344 snaps, 3 penalties, 1 sack allowed. Parker played his best season, but he has not been able to justify a starting spot yet. Year 4 is likely his last season to make a move.

4.5 Theo Riddick - did not have many opportunities but he was effective in the pass game (96.5 PRWT).

4.5 Zay Jones - he has not posted a passer rating above 90 when targeted in the past three seasons. In fact, it's probably below 80. He adds very little by way of measurable impact.

4.0 John Simpson - 45.8 on PFF, 252 snaps, 4 penalties, 1 sack allowed. Ugly start to the season, but Simpson evened out and showed well in the run blocking game at times. His rookie PFF grade is just a hair below Parker's and Miller's in their 2018 rookie season. One of them become excellent; the other has not developed.

4.0 Nathan Peterman - he hasn't showed much, but in his limited duty this season, he played his best ball.

4.0 Rico Gafford – not much of a contributor in the receiving game.

3.0 Andre James - 60.0 on PFF, 1 snap. He has played very, very little, but he's only 23.

 

Defense
12.0 Cory Littleton - a very poor showing, with no takeaways or sacks, but he was solid in coverage.

11.0 Maurice Hurst - his least productive season as 6 QB Hits, 8 pressures, but a ridiculous 77.9 PFF grade.
10.5 Jeff Heath - just shut people down in the passing game. His 19 targets went for 121 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs. His 59.2 passer rating allowed was best on the squad.
10.0 Nick Kwiatkoski - a forced fumble, an INT, and a sack. Good coverage.
10.0 Clelin Ferrell - struggled to stay on the field, but his 19 pressures, 10 qb hits, and 2 FF were all improvements over his rookie season. He reduced his missed tackle %, too.
9.5 Carl Nassib - 14 qb pressures, 9 qb hits, 2.5 sacks, and an INT.

9.0 Maxx Crosby - his pressure numbers were excellent for two years in a row, he led the team in sacks, but he continues to offer little outside the pass rush.
9.0 Trayvon Mullen - allowed a 97.5 passer rating when targeted (easily best among CBs on the Raiders), 45th best in the NFL, and his 12 breakups were 9th best.
8.0 LaMarcus Joyner - allowed a 91.6 passer rating, delivered 0 pressures on 21 blitzes.
8.0 Raekwon McMillan - forced a fumble, covered reasonably well. Just 30.3 on PFF.
8.0 Erik Harris - surrendered a 124.1 passer rating, missed 18% of his tackles.
7.5 Johnathan Hankins - 4 qb hits, 7 pressures, and 16 starts.
7.5 Maliek Collins - he was injured, his pass rush was off, but he did not miss a tackle.
7.5 Damon Arnette - allowed a 106.0 passer rating when targeted. He allowed 0 TDs and broke up 3 passes, playing with a club.
7.5 Nick Morrow - 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, and his best season in coverage.
7.0 Daryl Worley - allowed a 155.2 passer rating when targeted, but this was easily his worst season. Could be an anomaly.
6.5 Nevin Lawson - allowed a 114.6 passer rating when targeted (69th best).
6.0 Arden Key - 22 combined pressures plus hits, but (story of his career) no sacks.

5.0 Chris Smith - in just half a season, he had 10 pressures, 4 qb hits.
5.0 Vic Beasley - forced a fumble playing limited snaps.
4.5 Kyle Wilber - a good special teams player who plays some snaps at LB
4.5 Keisean Nixon - allowed a 128.9-135 (different sites) passer rating when targeted.
4.5 Johnathan Abram - 35.9 on PFF, allowed a 109 passer rating when targeted, delivered 9 total pressures on 47 blitzes.
4.5 Dallin Leavitt - saw his most extensive action in 2020, but that included only 1 target. He missed on 2 of 12 tackle attempts.
4.5 David Irving - a fascinating player who posted a good PFF grade in limited time and was elite back in 2017.
4.0 Kendal Vickers - put up 8 hits/pressures as a rookie. 4.0 Datone Jones - didn't really see the field very much
4.0 Javin White - allowed a TD pass, posted a 47.9 PFF grade.
4.0 Isaiah Johnson - allowed a 119.3 passer rating when targeted, missed 19% of his tackles.
3.5 Amik Robertson - allowed a perfect 158.3 passer rating on his 7 targets. All were completed. Two went for scores.

 

Raider thoughts:
- retain Agholor
- release Witten and involve Moreau more.
- move Joyner back to safety
- hope Irving gets back to form
- Key is not a key...almost there doesn't cut it anymore
- retain Morrow
- calm Abrams down a bit
- Heath > Harris
- retain Beasley?
- McKinley healthy in 2021?
- a better Defensive Coordinator with simplified schemes

Non Raider but Raider related...
- thrilled for Feliciano and Lee Smith. Let's go Buffalo!
- good to see Rivers booted out

 

I'm going to start looking position by position at the cap situation. Here are quick thoughts:

Williams and Agholor - if there's a way to have both of them under contract next season for about what we're paying Williams now, I'd be all over it.
Yes - more Moreau.
Joyner played probably his best season this year. I'm torn.
Irving would be a huge boost.
Key is frustrating.
Yes, Morrow.
Yes, Abram.

 

QUARTERBACK (13.5/15)*
Derek Carr may keep the Raiders from being elite, but he certainly does not keep them from the playoffs. He has elevated his play once again to career highs only to see his team miss the playoffs.

Carr is entering his year 30 season, and he will likely continue to push for career marks for the next few seasons. With a renewed commitment to running for first downs, he's just what the Raiders need.

Beyond Carr, the Raiders have an odd combination. Mariota is an NFL starter who showed he can move the chains even when rusty. Peterman is a headscratcher, but he's cheap and under contract.

On the Roster (2020)
Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Nathan Peterman

Under Contract (2021+)
Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota

Positional Strength
A-: Quality starter, arguably the best backup in the league.

Recommendation
This is Carr’s team. See if Mariota can be flipped for some draft capital (would give cap relief and help bring in more talent), but don't just give him away. Draft a QB late or bring back DeShone Kizer. The team could use a project with a ceiling.

 

RUNNINGBACK
Grade: A (13.5/15)
The running game was a mild disappointment this season. Fumbles, low average per carry, but that's associated with injuries to the OL. Jacobs finished strong and Booker showed himself a solid backup. Ingold continues to shine as a FB.

Two third down backs were under a one-year contract. Richard was ineffective and little involved compared to previous seasons. Riddick was better in the receiving game but non-existent in the run game.

On the Roster (2020)
Alec Ingold, Josh Jacobs, Jalen Richard, Devontae Booker, Theo Riddick

Under Contract (2021+)
Josh Jacobs, Alec Ingold, Jalen Richard

*Positional Strength
A: Jacobs and Ingold are excellent. Richard is a decent third down back.

Recommendation
The Raiders should bring back Booker on the relatively cheap. He can run (4.5 YPC each of his last three seasons), catch (four seasons of 20+ receptions), and doesn't miss games (has appeared in 77 of 80 games he has been eligible for).

They could spend a late pick on an RB, too, but that seems unlikely. There are likely to be decent FA options available for cheap. Josh Adams is a player I suggested last offseason. Theo Riddick is a low priority option, too.

 

Both these positions are low priority for the draft and FA, as the starters are set in both cases. But they're not areas that we can neglect. Mariota can be moved, we need a longterm developmental QB, and we need another Rb on roster.

 

RECEIVER (26.5/37.5) D+
When Tyrell Williams went down for the season, it looked like Henry Ruggs would lead the way among the receivers. That did not happen, but Nelson Agholor stepped up in a big way, Hunter Renfrow was solid again, and Ruggs and Edwards showed enough to excite fans about the future. This group is probably a season away from being a relative strength of the team.

The position really offers only two difficult questions. Will Williams and/or Agholor be back next season. Renfrow, Edwards, and Ruggs are all back and locked in as at least rotational WRs. Williams is under contract with a hefty price tag. Agholor is a free agent who has done about as much as Williams could be counted on to do in 2021.

On the Roster (2020)
Nelson Agholor, Bryan Edwards, Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, Henry Ruggs, Tyrell Williams

Under Contract (2021+)
Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow, Henry Ruggs, Tyrell Williams

Positional Strength
D+: With the four WRs currently under contract, the Raiders have an injury concern (Williams), two players who need to grow next season, and a solid slot/WR3 (Renfrow). It’s a promising, young core outside of Williams.

Recommendation
Williams’s contract must be reworked, or he should be let go. Agholor should be asked back on something between what he made in 2020 and what Williams was due. That’s about $6m per season.

Given the production the Raiders’ WRs have posted and the glaring needs on defense, the Raiders should not dig deep into their pockets for a WR. If Zay Jones is back as a WR5 on the cheap, that’s fine. If the team has Agholor or Williams, Ruggs, Edwards, Renfrow, and Jones, that is not bad. They could stand an upgrade over Jones, but I expect this position to improve largely because of Ruggs and Edwards. The Raiders could take a high SPARQ WR later in the draft, too.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2020.
**Practice Squad

 

OFFENSIVE LINE

Current Grade: (53.5/67.5) C+
The Raiders’ two Pro Bowlers (Incognito and Brown) combined for 355 snaps. That could have spelled doom for a team, but the o-line stepped up for the Raiders. Rodney Hudson was is usual, excellent self, and Kolton Miller elevated his game to new heights. Gabe Jackson and Denzelle Good were solid, too.

There is a promising unit here, but there is probably too much money tied up in players who threaten to be unavailable too frequently.

On the Roster (2020)
Rodney Hudson (C), Gabe Jackson (G), John Simpson (G), Denzelle Good (OL), Andre James (OL), Trent Brown (T), Kolton Miller (T), Brandon Parker (T), Sam Young (T), Jaryd Jones-Smith*, Erik Magnuson*, Kamaal Seymour*, Richie Incognito (G)**

Under Contract (2021+)
Parker, Jones-Smith*, Brown, Miller, Jackson, Incognito, Simpson, Seymour, Hudson, James, Magnuson

Positional Strength
C+: With Brown, Hudson, Miller, Incognito, and Jackson, the Raiders could be absolutely stacked. The problem is that Brown has missed 16 games over the last two seasons. Incognito has missed 18 in that span. And, although Gabe Jackson is coming off his best season, he's due almost $10m each of the next two seasons. That's sixth most among RGs in the league, and four of the five ahead of him have made multiple Pro Bowls.

Recommendation
Facing cap problems, the Raiders showed they could make do without their two Pro Bowlers. The unit suffered, but they were still adequate. Trent Brown is the best bet on the line to be gone, but he clearly could not help part of his struggles this season. That would free up some money for defense. But Gabe Jackson and Richie Incognito are much harder questions. Losing Brown, Incognito, and Jackson would be a scary amount of change for the unit. Hudson, Jackson, Miller, Good, and Young were the top OL in terms of snaps. Young is the only one who clearly does not belong in the starting lineup. It would not be a surprise to see only one among Brown, Incognito, and Jackson back. And Incognito might be the best bet.

The Raiders could further solidify their position here by trying to restructure Brown’s contract, but that might not be enough. Flip him for draft capital, rework Jackson’s contract, and draft another OL prospect. In FA, Alex Bars might be a younger, better, but likewise cheap Sam Young.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad

 

OL is the toughest position so far for the Raiders. They have a fantastic group, but they're overpriced now. Brown might be the easiest to move for draft capital.

 

TIGHT END (14.5/15)*
Darren Waller has made his presence known. Now widely regarded as one of the best Tight Ends in the league and in franchise history, Waller leads the way at a position with good depth and versatility.

After a season of low usage, Foster Moreau is primed for a larger role in year three, as, presumably, Jason Witten retires. Derek Carrier does his job with little fanfare, but Raiders fans appreciate his blocking and occasional receptions.

On the Roster (2020)
Darren Waller, Derek Carrier, Foster Moreau, Jason Witten, Nick O’Leary***, Nick Bowers*

Under Contract (2021+)
Waller, Moreau, Bowers*

Positional Strength
A: A top three TE as a starter, a promising and versatile player entering year 3 in Foster Moreau.

Recommendation
Allow Moreau the time and reps to develop. Bring back Carrier. See about a fourth TE, possible brought from the practice squad or a developmental player late in the draft or a UDFA. It will soon be time to re-up Waller.
*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2020.
**Practice Squad

 

Some FA Options...

WR: FA options, super cheap to mid-level: Marvin Hall (CLE), Rashard Higgins (CLE), Tim Patrick (DEN), David Moore (SEA).

 

DEFENSIVE INTERIOR (13/30)*
When the Raiders signed Johnathan Hankins, they ended up getting a player much better than many expected. He has started all 32 games over the past two seasons, and it is arguably the best two-year stretch of his career. Maliek Collins, on the other hand, had his worst season as a pro. Lost in the shuffle was Maurice Hurst, arguably the best performer on the defensive line. In limited snaps, he posted 14 combined pressures and QB hits.

Hankins is steady, but his contract is up. Collins was injured, and his contract is up. Niles Scott, signed to a Reserves/Futures deal, is likewise an unknown.

On the Roster (2020)
Maliek Collins, Johnathan Hankins, Maurice Hurst, Niles Scott*

Under Contract (2021+)
Maurice Hurst, Niles Scott*

Positional Strength
F: Hurst is a quality defender, but that is all the team has at present.

Recommendation
Hankins and Collins combined for about $11m in cash last season. It is hard to see them both coming back on similar deals. Bring back Hankins on a two-year, $8m (total) deal. See about another one-year deal for Collins.

This is really a good position to try to upgrade through the draft. Good FA options start in the neighborhood of $8m+. Sheldon Rankins and Roy Robertson-Harris are two candidates for big deals, but it makes more sense to target a DI early in the draft. Walter Football currently has the Raiders taking Kwity Paye from Michigan in the first round and a CB in the second round, but with more draft capital from a Mariota trade, they could load up on some young studs up front.

 

I see players like Denico Autry, Shelby Harris...even Jihad Ward make plays. Wistful...

 

It's all about schemes. I think the Raiders have done a poor job developing talent, especially raw talent.

 

DEFENSIVE EDGE (19.5/30)*
There is only one more disappointing positional group on the Raiders – and we’ll get to them. The Raiders are loaded with talent at the edge, but their results are startlingly bad. Clelin Ferrell looks like a quality starter at absolute worst and like a perennial Pro Bowler more and more. Crosby is a good pass rusher who needs a new scheme to hide his shortcomings in other areas of the game. Nassib may have been more effective in all aspects of the game than Crosby. Key showed flashes, but that has been the story of his disappointing career to date.

It is unclear what Valoaga and Green offer, but the Raiders have some fascinating players they might want to bring back in Beasley, Smith, and Vickers.

On the Roster (2020)
Vic Beasley, Maxx Crosby, Clelin Ferrell, Arden Key, Carl Nassib, Chris Smith, Kendal Vickers, Jeremiah Valoaga**

Under Contract (2021+)
Ferrell, Nassib, Key, Crosby, Valoaga, Gerri Green*

Positional Strength
D+: This is a position where the pieces are there, but schemes have to adjust. Ferrell, Crosby, and Nassib can get the job done.

Recommendation
I imagine that many Defensive Coordinators would love to have Ferrell, Crosby, and Nassib as their edge players. This is a position that could turn around incredibly quickly with the existing personnel with just some health and better schemes. Chris Smith far and away led the team in rush quality - in very limited snaps. It was a bit anomalous, but his last three seasons have shown a good ability to rush the passer. If Vic Beasley is healthy, he could reclaim his solid post-All Pro play that saw him pick up 18 sacks in three seasons with Atlanta. He, of course, added 15.5 in his All Pro season.

Would it be foolish to think that a new scheme and some health would make this position a strength of the unit? Perhaps, but it’s worth re-signing Beasley and taking a middle rounder at the Edge. Oakland has done well picking up DL prospects after the first day of the draft.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2021.
**Practice Squad