Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

That one hurt

 

#FirePaulGuenther

 

Done.

 

2018 DRAFT CLASS
1Miller 71.1 on PFF
2Hall - gone
3Parker 48.9 on PFF
3Key 58.1 on PFF
4Nelson DNP
5Hurst 78.1 on PFF
5Townsend DNP
6Victor - gone
7Ateman DNP
-The Raiders have gotten two quality starters from this group, in Miller and Hurst. Other than that, it's not very good. Key and Hall have been so-so rotational players, and Parker has been an unimpressive stopgap.

2019 DRAFT CLASS
1Ferrell 76.1
1Jacobs 76.4
1Abram 37.1
2Mullen 61.3
4Crosby 53.3
4Johnson 44.5
4Moreau 62.5
5Renfrow 76.2
7Bell -gone/DNP
-Much stronger draft class than the 2018 group. Ferrell is coming into his own, Jacobs and Renfrow look like strong starters, and Moreau and Mullen are both more than solid contributors. Crosby is one-dimensional, but he does that thing very well (he might benefit from a scheme that has him crashing less). After that, Johnson and Abram are both intriguing players. Abram has had a good bit of productivity, but he's incredibly error prone at this point.

2020 DRAFT CLASS
1Ruggs 54.8
1Arnette 51.6
3Bowden gone (but 76.8)
3Edwards 66.4
3Muse DNP
4Simpson 39.5
4Robertson 42.2
-This group has really struggled. Arnette has been decent when healthy, but he's been hurt a lot. Same goes with Ruggs. And the Raiders have struggled to put him to good use. Same with Edwards. Robertson has not been ready to play, same goes with Simpson. And Muse earns an INC as a rookie.

 

Please, DC, fix...
Make sure the DBs know their assignments.
Have the DEs crash hard less frequently.
Dial up some different looks on blitzes.

 

Really nice mock draft.

https://justblogbaby.com/2020/12/20/raiders-2021-mock-defense/

 

Stats Update
Little else to root for.

Carr owns the Raiders' career marks for attempts, completions, yards, and TDs. He's third in QB Wins. He's also the leader in losses.
This season is the 15th highest passing yardage for a Raiders QB. He's tied for 13th for TDs, and his passer rating is the second best among players with a minimum of 50 attempts.

RUSHING
Jacobs has moved up to 19th all-time on the Raiders' rushing list. Richard is 24th, and Carr is 39th. Jacobs is also 14th in rushing TDs.

Jacobs's single season mark is 23rd best, and he has a shot at a top 15, possibly top 10 finish. More impressively, he's now one of only four Raiders to score 10+ rushing TDs in a season. Marcus Allen did it four times, and Banaszak, Latavius Murray, and Jacobs have all done it once.

RECEIVING
Darren Waller is 23rd all-time in receiving yards, Richard is 39th, and Renfrow is 3 yard outside the top 50. Waller and Richard are 22nd and 24th in receptions. Waller is tied for 30th in TD catches, and Agholor, Moreau, and Renfrow are all tied at 45th for TD grabs.

Waller is third in receptions for a single season, and he is within striking distance of Tim Brown's team mark of 104, set in 1997. His 967 yards are 33rd best, and he should mark the team's 29th 1000-yard season. His 8 TD catches are tied for 31st best, and Agholor's 7 are tied for 39th best. One more TD catch for Waller would put him in the top 18, and two more would put him tied for 14th.

 

Here's a revisit on this.

Here are some stats...Gruden's best QB vs. Carr w/ Gruden vs. Carr w/out Gruden.
I've now added 2020 for comparison.

Most Wins
12 Gannon
12 Carr w/out Gruden
7 Carr w/ Gruden
6 2020

COMP% (100+ attempts)
70.4% Carr w/ Gruden
67.6% 2020
65.8% Gannon
63.8% Carr w/out Gruden

TDs
32 Carr w/out Gruden
28 Gannon
25 2020
21 Carr w/ Gruden

Yards
4054 Carr w/ Gruden
3987 Carr w/out Gruden
3840 Gannon
3732 2020

Rating
102.2 2020
100.8 Carr w/ Gruden
96.7 Carr w/out Gruden
95.5 Gannon

4QC
7 Carr w/out Gruden
3 Gannon
3 Carr w/ Gruden
2 2020

GWD
7 Carr w/out Gruden
4 2020
4 Gannon
3 Carr w/ Gruden

I really believe in Carr to get this team to the playoffs. I do not believe in this defense - at all. And I think we need to shed some contracts and recoup some money.

 

QBR vs. Win%
Did you know that QBR is supposed to represent the percentage of games that a team should win, all else equal, given the QB's level of play? Let's look at Derek Carr's QBR vs. team Win%

2014
QBR: 40.1
Expected win-loss: 6.4-9.6
Actual win-loss: 3-13
Diff: -3.4
Not a good season from Carr, but the team massively underperformed.

2015
QBR: 41.2
Expected win-loss: 6.6-9.4
Actual win-loss: 7-9
Diff: +0.4
Not a good season from Carr, and the team did right about what was expected.

2016
QBR: 54.6
Expected win-loss: 8.7-6.3
Actual win-loss: 12-3
Diff: +3.3
This was the season where everything went right in close games, and the team did far better than expected.

2017
QBR: 51.0
Expected win-loss: 7.7-7.3
Actual win-loss: 6-9
Diff: -1.7
Carr's second consecutive above average season saw the Raiders slump to 6-9, when they should have been fighting for a playoff spot.

2018
QBR: 46.9
Expected win-loss: 7.5-8.5
Actual win-loss: 4-12
Diff: -3.5
Not a good season from Carr and the team was terrible as it transitioned into the Gruden era.

2019
QBR: 65.6
Expected win-loss: 10.5-5.5
Actual win-loss: 7-9
Diff: -3.5
This is where Carr starts to make the case for massively underrated. He was really good, and rather than being a playoff team, the Raiders missed out on 3.5 wins for the second consecutive season.

2020
QBR: 71.5
Expected win-loss: 11.4-3.6
Actual win-loss: 7-8
Diff: -4.4
Carr elevated his game to the best of his career, but, once again, the team disappointed. That's 11.4 games lost in the past three years thanks to a dreadful defense. Not due to Carr.

Expected win-loss: 58.8-50.1
Actual win-loss: 46-63

The Raiders would have made the playoffs the past two seasons, and they would have been in the tie-breaker business in 2016 and 2017. The narrative would be quite different surrounding Carr.

 

+infinity...

 

Waller now 19th in TDs, 17th in yards, and 2nd in reception among single season marks for the Raiders.

 

Jacobs over 1000 yards rushing.

Defense has really settled in. Offense is killing the team - two TOs.

 

Daniel Carlson sets the single season scoring mark for the Raiders. Wow.

 

What a frustrating season. Last four drives have been a three and out and three TOs.

 

Waller ties Tim Brown's team mark with his 104th reception of the season.

 

Congratulations to Darren Waller. Now the single season all-time mark holder for receptions as a Raider.

 

Derek Carr goes over 4000 yards for the third consecutive season.

Jacobs is now tied for 5th in single season rushing TDs and is 12 in single season rushing yards.

And the Raiders have tied it up.

 

92-yard penalty surrendered after tying the game. Good lord. Awful.

 

Some epic stuff on this last drive as the Raiders take the lead.

 

Raiders win!