Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Discussion in 'Other Sports Discussion' started by trodgers, Jan 17, 2020.

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  1. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    QB Candidate: Russell Wilson

    Pros
    Familiarity with Carroll.
    Quick adaptation.
    Even since leaving Seattle, has gone 17-24. Raiders 18-33 in that time.
    Rushed for 155 yards last season, more than any Raiders QB since 2013 (Pryor).
    Will probably be cheaper than anyone who's an upgrade over him - much cheaper.

    Cons
    Wilson is 36.
    He's coming off his three worst seasons as a passer (by QBR).
    Has struggled with completions the past four years.
    Has struggled sacks his whole career.
    Had only the 22nd best QBR in 2024.

    Thoughts: I'm pretty sure Sam Darnold will be better than Wilson over the next four seasons, but Wilson could be better next season at least before he gets too far into the decline. Wilson is probably an upgrade over AOC. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see enough of AOC to know. I don't think any one of these guys will lead the team to elite status, but I think any of them can take the Raiders close to the playoffs.

    If no QB falls to us (Cam Ward, e.g.), I'm okay signing Wilson for two years and having AOC keep working.
     
    trodgers, Jan 24, 2025 at 9:55 AM
    #2281
  2. puffyusaf#2

    puffyusaf#2 - Lakers Starter -

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    I am a solid, full throated NO on Wilson.
     
    puffyusaf#2, Jan 24, 2025 at 11:31 AM
    #2282
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  3. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I get it!
     
    trodgers, Jan 24, 2025 at 1:28 PM
    #2283
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  4. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    QB Option: Jameis Winston

    Pros
    Has had a 5k yard, 33 TD season.
    Has posted a 59+ QBR three times.
    Never posted below 52.1 QBR in his seven seasons with 7+ starts.
    Has run for 111 first downs, including 17 in 12 games in 2024.
    Made 4m last season.

    Cons
    Career loser. 36-51. One season with more than 7 wins.
    Has led the leading in INTs (30) in his last season as a stater full time.
    Below average completions, INT%, sack%, and Rating.

    Thoughts: I don't like the guy. He was at FSU when I was doing my PhD. But this isn't about me. He's younger than Wilson, is at this point maybe better than Wilson, and could be pretty affordable.
     
    trodgers, Jan 24, 2025 at 1:33 PM
    #2284
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  5. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    QB Option: AOC

    Pros
    Improved in every area as a passer from year 1 to year 2 except TD%.
    Ran MUCH better as a sophomore, with 10 first downs on 21 carries.
    The only Raiders QB to achieve any sort of success in the past two seasons.
    He's under contract.

    Cons
    He'll be 27 but has only 17 games started under his belt.
    Hasn't posted a 50+ QBR over a season.
    7-10 record.
    Below average as a QB in most stats (comp%, td%, rating, yards/attempt).
    Injuries. Has been injured/unavailable for 5 games in two seasons.
    We don't know who he is, but he seems to have a limited ceiling.

    Thoughts: I really like AOC, but I don't know that he's good enough to be a franchise QB. At this point, he's not. I don't mind having him as a QB on roster, but he needs to be either the clear starter or the clear backup. No Minshew nonsense.
     
    trodgers, Jan 24, 2025 at 1:40 PM
    #2285
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  6. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    QB Option: Sam Darnold

    Pros
    Pro Bowl season in 2024.
    35 TDs in 2024
    14-win season in 2024.
    60.4 QBR in 2024.
    Only 28.
    Has run for 200+ yards three times, with 91 first downs and 14 TDs.

    Cons
    Prior to last season, Darnold was 21-35 as a starter.
    Prior to lats season, Darnold had 63 TDs vs. 56 INTs.
    Has posted a sub 52 QBR in 6 of 7 seasons.
    Has posted a sub 40 QBR twice.
    Below average in every passing category, notably compt% and int%.
    Spotrac lists his market value as 40.1m per season.

    Thoughts: I don't know if Darnold is even a league average QB. Six of his seven seasons, he hasn't been. He closed the season with 18 TDs and 2 INTs in his last 8 games, winning 7 of them. My gut is to not commit to this guy long-term, and he might need that and get it from someone else.
     
    trodgers, Jan 24, 2025 at 1:46 PM
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  7. puffyusaf#2

    puffyusaf#2 - Lakers Starter -

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    I think AOC is a starting level (even playoff caliber QB). Every time I hear someone talk about the Raiders getting a QB, not speaking of you specifically Trodg just in general, the first thing they do is ramble off all the things the QB needs to be successful. What I have never seen is one for AOC. Taking my Raider blinders off I think this kid has shown to be more than capable of being our QB1 and win games. I've said most of this before but I'll say again about what AOC played with.

    Under Josh Mcd he played with a bad coach, a busted line, a disgruntled WR1 (adams), a injured and disgruntled RB1 (Jacobs), a rookie OC (Bo), Injured TE1 (Meyers his fav target), a rookie HC (AP). And that was just in year 1.

    In year 2 disgruntled WR1 (Adams) who dropped passes and quit on the team (traded), An incompetent play caller (OC) and shakey at best HC (AP), A injured/hampered Guard (Miller), NO Running game at all, #1 TE (Meyer) out for most of the season on mental issues, Injuries on all levels of the team and a coach who seems to not trust you over the guy who def couldn't get it done (Minshew).

    So, at what point has AOC been given what he needs to succeed? What has he done in all that turmoil? As you posted he has improved each game, each season. Is he the greatest? A for sure #1? I don't know. I think he can be because of what I have seen in the kid. The only knock I keep hearing on him is he isn't mobile but he has improved his field awareness with each game AND with even decent protection from his backside (Miller getting healthy). I don't think he has gotten the chance from a coach to actually play "his" game.

    That being said, I don't want an old retread hoping to "find" his glory again either. Draft a QB if we can get one of the young studs for sure. But don't be surprised if Pete likes AOC. Of course if we draft a QB with the 6th pick or move up then that will be the starter for sure.
     
    puffyusaf#2, Jan 24, 2025 at 9:29 PM
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  8. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    AOC is certainly my favorite QB option. He had no run game this season. I'd love to see what he could do with a little less pressure on himself.

    So, I'll add in some evidence to suggest AOC might be better than we know.

    2024
    Minshew had posted a QBR of 44.6 and 59.6 in his two years as a full-time starter. His median QBR in a season was 44.6, but he finished with a QBR of 38.2 with the Raiders. This suggests that the Raiders were a worse place for him to get the job done.

    AOC posted a QBR of 49.5. Not good but much better than Minshew.

    2023
    In 2023, Jimmy G posted a QBR of 33.9. But he had never posted a QBR below 54 in a season in which he appeared in more than 4 games as a starter. His median QBR as a full-time starter was 59.2.

    AOC posted a QBR of 40.5. Not good but better than Jimmy G.

    So, we have two cases of AOC outplaying veterans, both guys coming off solid seasons as a starter.

    My biggest gripe about this season is that the Raiders didn't commit to O'Connell from the first snap of training camp. Even if he'd gotten hurt, he still would have put twice as much work on tape, and we'd have a better sense of who he is as a QB.
     
    trodgers, Jan 25, 2025 at 5:53 AM
    #2288
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  9. puffyusaf#2

    puffyusaf#2 - Lakers Starter -

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    I think Jimmy G got a raw deal under the Josh system too. He may not have had a cannon arm anymore but he could still throw the ball and get it out. His fall off from very solid to "wtf you doin man" was astonishing. I think I read he had a career 700 winning percentage before come to LV. I think the Josh M effect was very real. He (Jimmy G) also didn't have a RB (Jacobs hold out) for a few games. I thought he would fair much better under a better game caller.

    Minshew should of never been the starter. I said it before the season that AOC deserved the job. I do believe with Kolton on the shelf the coaches thought Minshew would be better suited for movement (which would be needed) over AOC. That made sense BUT AOC should of gotten the keys and let run with it. I think AP did the same thing Josh did and just threw him into the fire and said "figure it out" and when he wasn't perfect they bailed on him.

    So I think about what I think AOC shortcomings are as a QB right now:
    - He still has moderate situational awareness from his blindside though he has improved greatly as the seasons have progressed

    - He can be a little slow to step up in the pocket or roll out which would extend plays better (again, he has improved but still not good enough imo).

    - Run. He can stay in the pocket too long waiting on the play to develop which leads to some unnecessary hits on him.

    - Check down timing. I think he can get a little rushed when he chooses to check down and thus makes some not so great passes (ie... too short, over throw or too hard).

    Other than those I think AOC has a complete game on the offense and has gotten better each year. In all honesty, I am not sure he will get his real shot with us.
     
    puffyusaf#2, Jan 25, 2025 at 1:27 PM
    #2289
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