Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

QB Candidate: Russell Wilson

Pros
Familiarity with Carroll.
Quick adaptation.
Even since leaving Seattle, has gone 17-24. Raiders 18-33 in that time.
Rushed for 155 yards last season, more than any Raiders QB since 2013 (Pryor).
Will probably be cheaper than anyone who's an upgrade over him - much cheaper.

Cons
Wilson is 36.
He's coming off his three worst seasons as a passer (by QBR).
Has struggled with completions the past four years.
Has struggled sacks his whole career.
Had only the 22nd best QBR in 2024.

Thoughts: I'm pretty sure Sam Darnold will be better than Wilson over the next four seasons, but Wilson could be better next season at least before he gets too far into the decline. Wilson is probably an upgrade over AOC. Unfortunately, we didn't get to see enough of AOC to know. I don't think any one of these guys will lead the team to elite status, but I think any of them can take the Raiders close to the playoffs.

If no QB falls to us (Cam Ward, e.g.), I'm okay signing Wilson for two years and having AOC keep working.

 

I get it!

 

QB Option: Jameis Winston

Pros
Has had a 5k yard, 33 TD season.
Has posted a 59+ QBR three times.
Never posted below 52.1 QBR in his seven seasons with 7+ starts.
Has run for 111 first downs, including 17 in 12 games in 2024.
Made 4m last season.

Cons
Career loser. 36-51. One season with more than 7 wins.
Has led the leading in INTs (30) in his last season as a stater full time.
Below average completions, INT%, sack%, and Rating.

Thoughts: I don't like the guy. He was at FSU when I was doing my PhD. But this isn't about me. He's younger than Wilson, is at this point maybe better than Wilson, and could be pretty affordable.

 

QB Option: AOC

Pros
Improved in every area as a passer from year 1 to year 2 except TD%.
Ran MUCH better as a sophomore, with 10 first downs on 21 carries.
The only Raiders QB to achieve any sort of success in the past two seasons.
He's under contract.

Cons
He'll be 27 but has only 17 games started under his belt.
Hasn't posted a 50+ QBR over a season.
7-10 record.
Below average as a QB in most stats (comp%, td%, rating, yards/attempt).
Injuries. Has been injured/unavailable for 5 games in two seasons.
We don't know who he is, but he seems to have a limited ceiling.

Thoughts: I really like AOC, but I don't know that he's good enough to be a franchise QB. At this point, he's not. I don't mind having him as a QB on roster, but he needs to be either the clear starter or the clear backup. No Minshew nonsense.

 

QB Option: Sam Darnold

Pros
Pro Bowl season in 2024.
35 TDs in 2024
14-win season in 2024.
60.4 QBR in 2024.
Only 28.
Has run for 200+ yards three times, with 91 first downs and 14 TDs.

Cons
Prior to last season, Darnold was 21-35 as a starter.
Prior to lats season, Darnold had 63 TDs vs. 56 INTs.
Has posted a sub 52 QBR in 6 of 7 seasons.
Has posted a sub 40 QBR twice.
Below average in every passing category, notably compt% and int%.
Spotrac lists his market value as 40.1m per season.

Thoughts: I don't know if Darnold is even a league average QB. Six of his seven seasons, he hasn't been. He closed the season with 18 TDs and 2 INTs in his last 8 games, winning 7 of them. My gut is to not commit to this guy long-term, and he might need that and get it from someone else.

 

AOC is certainly my favorite QB option. He had no run game this season. I'd love to see what he could do with a little less pressure on himself.

So, I'll add in some evidence to suggest AOC might be better than we know.

2024
Minshew had posted a QBR of 44.6 and 59.6 in his two years as a full-time starter. His median QBR in a season was 44.6, but he finished with a QBR of 38.2 with the Raiders. This suggests that the Raiders were a worse place for him to get the job done.

AOC posted a QBR of 49.5. Not good but much better than Minshew.

2023
In 2023, Jimmy G posted a QBR of 33.9. But he had never posted a QBR below 54 in a season in which he appeared in more than 4 games as a starter. His median QBR as a full-time starter was 59.2.

AOC posted a QBR of 40.5. Not good but better than Jimmy G.

So, we have two cases of AOC outplaying veterans, both guys coming off solid seasons as a starter.

My biggest gripe about this season is that the Raiders didn't commit to O'Connell from the first snap of training camp. Even if he'd gotten hurt, he still would have put twice as much work on tape, and we'd have a better sense of who he is as a QB.

 

I think he wasn't healthy. I don't know if it was a plant issue with his leg or a back issue that sapped his arm power, but he was not right.

AP stuck with him more, because he's not a POS like McDaniel, but you're right. He threw him under the bus. A rookie coach can't throw a young QB under the bus like that.

I don't think so either, but I've laid out a few options for how this could come to be. Either give him the title now and draft an understudy or bring in your vet and let AOC know he's competing and we won't just dump him. I mean, he's due 1.03M next season, 1.15 the next season, and his 5th year option is probably 1.3m. Why wouldn't you want a guy who doesn't embarrass himself for that cheap as a backup at worst?

 

GM: Spytek
Head Coach: Pete Carroll
DC: Patrick Graham

 

OC rumor is Darell Bevell. O-Line is Cable also another one. Meh on both.

 

Tom Cable? Not awful. Bevell's rate of "success" is really unimpressive.

 

John Glenn on as LB Coach

 

Chip Kelly, OC.
Not a great coaching record as a head coach, but Kelly has done well as an OC. His teams have been bolstered by high output running games (80th percentiles) and adequate passing attacks. He put together a bruising running game at Ohio State, and there are already rumors that the Raiders will snatch up TrayVeon Henderson in the draft.

 

Greg Olson back as offensive assistant.
Brennan Carroll OL coach and run game coordinator.

 

QB Candidate: Marcus Mariota

Pros
Familiarity with Chip Kelly (Oregon).
Familiarity with Greg Olson (LV).
Quick adaptation.
Has posted 53+ QBR in four of his six seasons as a starter, including his most recent stint in 2022.
Still a solid runner, having posted 6 first downs and 92 yards on 18 carries last season.
Pretty cheap?
He'll finish next season at 32, meaning he has some life left.

Cons
We already see his top-end, I think.
There are reasons he has been on five teams in the past six seasons.
He's 7-12 as a starter since 2019.
A touch below league average in essentially all passing stats in his career.
Takes a lot of sacks, especially since 2018.

Thoughts: I loved signing Mariota last time. In 2022, he threw for 2219 yards, 15 TDs, and rushed for 438 yards and 4 TDs in 13 games as a starter. He couldn't separate himself from Desmond Ridder, however, and the team moved on from him. His market value is 4.2m on Spotrac. I'd honestly welcome him at that, on a two-year deal, and let there be an open QB competition. A Mariota-led team could win 7 games in this 2025 without other serious moves.

 

Looking at the QBs I've been hearing about. I have a number in here that represents their overall production that is likely next season. Don't worry about that number too much. Here, I'm comparing their productivity with their price tag.

Darnold 197.9
-I'd be so hesitant with a one-year wonder like Darnold. If someone is giving him $40m a season, I'd prefer it not be us.

**Mariota 199.6
-Honestly, Mariota is looking better and better. He has been decent at every stop in the NFL. He may be very affordable, too.

Wilson 191.4
-If his price tag is anywhere close to the 38.7 Spotrac is suggesting, I'd not even look his way.

**AOC 180.7
-An adequate option, cheapest by far. That money can go far elsewhere.

Winston 177.2
-Even at 6m, not worth it. I don't think he's an improvement over AOC.

 

Mark Thewes hired as Senior VP of Football Operations and Strategy
-was with Broncos for 16 years.

 

Chip Kelly Trends
1. He'll run the ball.
2. He'll use a two-back rotation (and likes a QB who can run)


Point 1: Comparison of three years pre-Kelly vs. Kelly Years:
Oregon
37.0 rushes, 40.4 passing attempts
Kelly: 46.7 rushes, 274.6 yards; 28.8 passes per game.
61.8% runs

Eagles
30 rushes, 2158 yards; 578 passes (Andy Reid)
Kelly: 472 rushes, 2104 yards; 584 passes
44.5% runs

49ers
455 rushes, 1944 yards; 507 passes
Kelly: 458 rushes, 2019 yards; 491 passes
48.3% runs

UCLA 2018-2023 HC
56.5% runs

Ohio State
took a team that ran the ball 33.2 times vs. 30.8 passes per game to 33.4 to 28.4.
51.9 to 54% runs

Point 2: He's developed a two-back system.
Early in his career, he leaned heavily on backs, who inevitably broke down and had to be replaced:
Eagles and 49ers
LeSean McCoy 366 touches, 2146 yards, 11 TD
LeSean McCoy 340 touches, 1474 yards, 5 TDs (year 2 - much less effective)
DeMarco Murray 237 touches, 1024 yards, 7 TDs (8 starts; couldn't sustain)
Carlos Hyde 244 touches, 1151 yards, 9 TDs

UCLA
Joshua Kelley 11 games, 252 touches, 1436 yards, 12 TDs
Joshua Kelley 11 games, 240 touches, 1131 yards, 13 TDs (year 2 - much less effective)
Demetric Felton 6 games, 154 plays, 827 yards, 8 TDs (hard to find a guy to go all year)
*Brittain Brown 7 games, 88 touches, 627 yards 5 TDs
Zach Charbonnet 12 games, 227 touches, 1334 yards, 13 TDs (great two-back crew)
*Brittain Brown 10 games, 120 touches, 744 yards, 10 TDs
Zach Charbonnet 10 games, 232 touches, 1680 yards, 14 TDs
Carson Steele 12 games, 184 plays, 1010 yards, 8 TD
TJ Harden 13 games, 175 plays, 969 yards, 9 TDs

Ohio State
Judkins 16 games, 216 touches, 1221 yards, 16 TDs
Henderson 16 games, 171 touches, 1300 yards, 11 TDs
Both Ohio State RBs have declared for the draft. I'd be shocked if we don't grab one of them.