Official Las Vegas Raiders Thread

Good one... TBH, I wanted D.K. Metcalf before that.

 

And he's doing this without two Pro Bowl OL and missing what was supposed to be his WR1.

 

Let's look at LV's Draft Class of 2018: A Disappointment

Kolton Miller's at a 64.1 on PFF, posting back to back 64+ seasons after struggling as a rookie. He has not missed a game in 39 starts, and he has not missed an offensive snap in the last two seasons. He has no holding penalties this season either.

PJ Hall is gone, but he's enjoying his third straight 65+ season, and he's at 70+ for the second straight. He's a solid player and was a decent pick. He'll set career bests in many areas this season with Houston.

Brandon Parker is a tough one to figure. He was drafted too high though. After playing 75% of the offensive snaps as a rookie, he managed just 19% and 3 starts as a sophomore. And this season, he has no starts and only 99 snaps (a slight upward trend from last season). His 51.6 PFF grade is seventh best on LV this season - among OL. But it's up massively from the 39.2 he posted last season. His 10 penalties in 780 snaps as a rookie are down to 0 in 99 this season.

Arden Key was brought in to become a pass rusher. His 57.6 PFF rating this season is his career best, and that's part of the problem. He has only 3 tackles in 5 chances, and his QB pressures stand at 4 in 176 snaps.

Nick Nelson hasn't played this season, after getting roasted for 18-30, 307 yards, and 4 TDs in coverage as a rookie (134.3 rating).

Mo Hurst is the cream of the draft crop for LV given his draft position. He's at 81.1 this season, after posting 72+ in his first two seasons. Even as his starts have decreased from 10 to 4 to 0, he has developed into a solid pass rusher, with 12 pressures last season and a trend for 14 this season. He doesn't miss many tackles, and he makes the most of his 20-30 snaps per game.

Johnny Townsend is off the roster. He had a wild rookie season, and his fake punt run will be a memorable one for Raiders fans, but he's perhaps done in the league.

Azeem Victor is with Seattle and not playing.

Marcell Ateman hasn't played this season. He doesn't have the sure hands or the separation ability to make it without impeccable attention to detail. And he's not there yet. His career numbers are 20-270-1. Not bad, and about what you can ask from a 7th rounder.

Nice picks.
Four not playing.
One more off the team.
Only one starter.

Three successes: Miller, Hall, Hurst

 

Tight "home" win less three of our O-line.

That Carr fumble leading to a Charger field goal nearly came back to bite us.

 

Can't win being ahead...can't win coming from behind. Now 3-17 (?) in games decided by one score.

 

I got to watch this one (on TV) with my dad and youngest brother. That was cool. A W is a W. Gruden's Raiders are now at .500 over the last two seasons, and they're in 6th seed for the playoffs and control their own destiny.

 

Halfway There: Offense
Carr is on pace for his second 10-win season in his career. He's also on pace for 4000 yards, 32 TDs, and another 216 yards on the ground. That would give Carr three straight 4000 yard seasons, and the 32 TDs would tie his career best. He's only 30 yards off his career best rushing numbers, and he's on pace to destroy that mark.

Jacobs is on pace for a massive workload, 1176 yards on the ground, 12 TDs, and another 38 receptions and 250 through the air. After struggling to a 3.4 yards per carry through the first six weeks, he's averaged 97 yards on 4.3 per carry in the last two.

Waller is on pace for 100 receptions, 800 yards, and 8 TDs. That would be a new best in receptions and TDs even if the yards would be well down from last year's mark.

Renfrow is on pace for 54 receptions, 738 yards, and 4 TDs. Those numbers would all tie or set new bests for him.

Agholor is on pace for 34-694 and 10 TDs. The receptions would be one of his lowest career totals, but the yards would be his third best. The TDs would also be a career best.

Ruggs is on pace for 20-440-2, or 24-514-2 if he stays healthy. Would still love to see more targets for him on crossing routes. He also is on pace for 64 yards on the ground.

 

Pass Rush

Crosby is on pace for 24 pressures, 12 hurries, 2 knockdowns, 10 sacks, and 14 QB Hits.
Ferrell is on pace for 18 pressures, 14 hurries, 4 knockdowns, 0 sacks, and 12 QB Hits.
Hurst is on pace for 12 pressures, 4 hurries, 6 knockdowns, 1 sack, and 10 QB hits.
Chris Smith is on pace for 12 pressures, 8 hurries, 2 knockdowns, 2 sacks, and 4 QB Hits.
Nassib is on pace for 8 pressures, 0 hurries, 4 knockdowns, 3 sacks, and 10 QB Hits.
Key is on pace for 8 pressures, 6 hurries, 2 knockdowns, 0 sacks, and 4 QB Hits.
Collins is on pace for 6 pressures, 4 hurries, 2 knockdowns, 0 sacks, and 2 QB hits.
Hankins is on pace for 4 pressures, 2 hurries, 2 knockdowns, 0 sacks, and 2 QB hits.
Datone Jones is on pace for 2 pressures, 2 hurries, 0 knockdowns, 0 sacks, and 0 QB Hits.
Ross is on pace for 0 pressures, 0 hurries, 0 knockdowns, 0 sacks, and 0 QB Hits.

 

Big picture stuff

Sagarin Ratings
Raiders are 15th, with the #1 most difficult schedule played so far.
They are 2-2 vs. top 10 teams and 2-2 vs. top 16 teams. They're one of only 9 teams with at least a .500 record against top 10 teams.

538 Projections
Raiders are 13th, with a projected 10-6 record, 63% chance of making the playoffs, and an 8% chance of taking the division.

Something to keep an eye on: the Raiders have worked out four RBs, including three who are primarily FBs. Ingold's rib injury is concerning the team.

 

Offensive Line
Rodney Hudson
533 snaps, 1 penalty, 0 sacks allowed, 67.9 on PFF

Denzelle Good
515 snaps, 3 penalties, 1 sack allowed, 61.3 PFF

Gabe Jackson
512 snaps, 1 penalty, 0 sacks allowed, 61.9 on PFF

Kolton Miller
483 snaps, 2 penalties, 1 sack allowed, 64.1 on PFF

Sam Young
177 snaps, 1 penalty, 3 sacks allowed, 63.8 on PFF

John Simpson
149 snaps, 3 penalties, 1 sack allowed, 39.5 on PFF

Brandon Parker
149 snaps, 1 penalty, 0 sacks allowed, 48.2 on PFF

Richie Incognito
74 snaps, 1 penalty, 0 sacks allowed, 81.4 PFF

Trent Brown
73 snaps, 1 penalty, 0 sacks allowed, 65.6 on PFF

Shame two of their best OL have played their fewest snaps, but it's a luxury to have SEVEN offensive linemen at 60+.

 

PFF Grades and one cool stat.

OFFENSE
Richie Incognito (81.4). 74 snaps, 0 sacks allowed.

Josh Jacobs (80.6). Jacobs's 63 evaded tackles is #1 in the league.

Hunter Renfrow (77.6). Renfrow's "True Catch Rate" of 96.7% is #2, according to PlayerProfiler.

Devontae Booker (76.2). Booker's 5.7 "true yards per carry" score of 5.7 is #1, according to PlayerProfiler.

Derek Carr (75.3): three straight years at 75+ on PFF, sporting the highest passer rating and QBR of his career.

Darren Waller (73.1). Waller is #1 among TEs with 15 red zone targets (12 receptions).

Bryan Edwards (71.7). Carr has a 118.7 Passer Rating when he targets Edwards (6-7, 115 yards).

Rodney Hudson (69.9). 605 snaps, 0 sacks allowed.

Alec Ingold (69.3). Ingold has run 26 routes this season, including 3 from the slot. Interesting for a FB.

Nelson Agholor (67.8). Agholor's 12. yards per target are the second best, according to PlayerProfiler.

Jalen Richard (66.5). Richard's 172 receptions is 23rd best in franchise history.

Trent Brown (65.6). 73 snaps, 0 sacks allowed.

Kolton Miller (64.1). 483 snaps, 1 sack allowed.

Zay Jones (63.2). Jones has hauled in both of his red zone targets this season.

Jason Witten (62.8). Derek Carr has a 123.3 passer rating when targeting Witten.

Sam Young (62.0). 236 snaps, 3 sacks allowed.

Denzelle Good (61.6). 587 snaps, 4 penalties, 1 sack allowed.

Gabe Jackson (61.1). 584 snaps, 0 sacks allowed.

Foster Moreau (59.7). Moreau dropped 1 target, but he also caught his only contested pass of the season.

Henry Ruggs (57.6). Ruggs's 2.52 yards of target separation is 2nd best, according to PlayerProfiler.

Theo Riddick (56.9). Riddick has only two touches, but one of them came in the red zone.

Rico Gafford (53.8). Gafford has run two bombs, has no catches, but he has 64 yards of unrealized air yardage.

Brandon Parker (52.1). 221 snaps, 0 sacks allowed. This is easily Parker's best season.

John Simpson (39.5). 149 snaps, 3 penalties, 1 sack allowed.

DEFENSE
Jeff Heath (81.1). He has almost as many INTs (3) as receptions allowed (4).

Maurice Hurst (81.1). Hurst has a career high three QB Knockdowns in only six games.

Nick Kwiatkoski (77.6). Opposing QBs have thrown at him 33 times, completing only 15 for 107 yards. That's a 50.9 passer rating.

Clelin Ferrell (75.2). Cle has matched his total pressures from last season, and he still has seven game remaining this year.

Johnathan Hankins (69.1). Hankins has missed 2 tackles in 24 attempts, his best rate in the past three seasons.

Carl Nassib (62.5). Nassib's 7 pressures include 3 hurries, 2 knocdowns, and 1.5 sacks.

Nevin Lawson (61.4). He's the only Raiders' CB with a 60+ score in three consecutive seasons. He has been burned only once in 30 targets.

Datone Jones (60.8). Jones had 1 hurry in in lone game.

Erik Harris (60.3). His stats vary widely from site to site. PFF has him allowing 5 receptions on 12 targets, but PFR has him at 12-20, 316 yards, and 2 TDs.

Damon Arnette (59.6). Arnette's average target rate is 31.8 yards downfield, the 7th highest in the NFL.

Nicholas Morrow (57.4). The 38 targets against Morrow have gone for only 190 yards and a 75.5 Passer Rating.

Isaiah Johnson (55.9). He has allowed 1 TD on 10 targets, but, in his defense, he also broke up two passes in the end zone.

Arden Key (55.5). Key's 2 batted passes are 9th best at his spot.

Daniel Ross (55.3). Ross has four tackles in his two games.

Trayvon Mullen (54.0). Has not been credited with a BURN on Player Profiler, despite being targeted 31+ times on the season.

LaMarcus Joyner (52.5). He has the third best target separation at his position, according to PlayerProfiler.com (0.73 yards). He has not been burned in 56 targets.

Maxx Crosby (52.3). Crosby's 49 pressures in 25 career games are fantastic.

Amik Robertson (49.1). He is still allowing a near perfect passer rating, but much of the damage was done on his first snap.

Chris Smith (48.5). Smith has a mindboggling 6 pressures in 37 snaps.

Keisean Nixon (48.3). Nixon has been targeted 5 times without being burned. I guess that's worth noting.

Johnathan Abram (42.3). He has 4 QB hits and 4 passes defended, both top 5 on the Raiders.

Maliek Collins (37.9). Collins has two run stuffs, according to Player Profiler. That's #22.

Cory Littleton (36.7). For three years in a row, he has allowed a sub 95 passer rating when targeted.

Kendal Vickers (35.5). Vickers has two hurries.

Raekwon McMillan (28.1). On the bright side, he hasn't missed a tackle in 9 chances.

 

I feel the same way about Sunday's game. Don't have Ferrell and Joyner though there is a possibility they could be active by then. Protocol about not having close contact.

After Sunday...we have an "easy" schedule? I beg to differ.

- two looking like wins... Jets and Chargers at home.
- Miami is playing well. Really good defense. At home though no crowd and not the heat of South Beach.
- Indy also at home. Again good, fast defense. They have Rivers though so that is somewhat of a plus.
- Atlanta. Morris has them balling. That will be a shootout in Atlanta. Whoever has the ball last?
- Denver on the road. We've done well away from home BUT it is always tough at Mile High.
- Indy and Miami we are competing for playoff spots so they are must wins not that the rest isn't.
- 4-2 may be good enough to get us in.
- 5-1 would be outstanding and an almost guarantee.
- 3-3? Not good.

- Booker has been a revelation. Speed and power.
- mentioned the other day that Jacobs never "dances' for losses, falls forward for a couple of yards at least.
- Kwiatkowski reminds me of Biekert though a step above.
- I hope Agholor doesn't get back to his Philly dropsies.
- Heath should start over Harris though I respect the hell out the former given his road to The League.
- What can Brown do for you? Not much so far though the O-Line is sooo much better when he plays.
- Is Incognito done for the year?
- Miracle of miracles? Ladies and gentlemen...Brandon Parker?
- where art thou, Cory Littleton?

 

A ball control approach can work against KC - if we finish drives with TDs.

 

I think we come out with 10 wins, but if we beat KC, everything is on the table.

Seems like our big money signings have been really disappointing: Joyner sucked for two seasons (finally playing decent), Littleton, Collins, and Tyrell Williams...yikes.

I think Kwiatkoski is my favorite player on defense. He's kicking a** individually, and he makes a massive difference when he's on the field.

 

Agree about Sunday...

I thought Williams was a good signing until he injured his foot. Was doing what Agholor is doing now. Just catch TD's.

Regarding our free agent defensive signings... Is Guenther's scheme that complicated?

 

That and ball pressure from our front line... I'm still not thrilled with the Buckner move but what is done is done.

 

Quick look at the pass rush...

Weighted Pressures
LB: Morrow 7, Kwiatkowki 3, Littleton 2, Morrow 0
EDGE: Crosby 33, Ferrell 22, Smith 14, Nassib 13.5, Key 8 (For comparison's sake, Khalil Mack has 35.5)
DI: Hurst 11.5, Collins 7, Hankins 3, Vickers 2 (For comparison's sake, Aaron Donald has 52)

Relentless Score
Smith 28
(Donald 9.5)
Hurst 8
Crosby 6.2
(Mack 5.9)
Ferrell 5.5
Nassib 4.7
Key 3.3
Collins 1.8
Morrow 1.6
Vickers 1.2
Hankins 0.8
Kwiatkoski 0.7
Littleton 0.4
McMillan 0


Data set...

LB
Nick Morrow 56.2 PFF
449 snaps, 10 Games, 7 Starts
3 QBH, 0 Hurry, 2 QBKD, 1 Sack, 3 Pressures

Nick Kwiatkoski 80.6 PFF
427 snaps, 8 Games, 8 Starts
1 QBH, 1 Hurry, 1 QBKD, 0 Sack, 2 Pressures

Corey Littleton 36.7 PFF
527 snaps, 8 Games, 8 Starts
1 QBH, 1 Hurry, 0 QBKD, 0 Sack, 1 Pressure

Raekwon McMillan 28.4 PFF
42 Snaps, 10 Games, 2 Starts
0 QBH, 0 Hurry, 0 QBKD, 0 Sacks, 0 Pressures

EDGE
Maxx Crosby 52.0 PFF
530 snaps, 10 Games, 10 Starts
9 QBH, 9 Hurry, 3 QBKD, 6 Sacks, 18 Pressures

Carl Nassib 61.6 PFF
288 snaps, 10 games, 1 start
5 QBH, 3 Hurry, 2 QBKD, 1.5 sacks, 7 pressures

Clelin Ferrell 75.2 PFF
402 snaps, 9 Games, 9 Starts
7 QBH, 9 Hurry, 6 QBKD, 0 Sacks, 15 Pressures

Arden Key 55.6 PFF
242 snaps, 8 Games, 0 Starts
3 QBH, 5 Hurries, 1 QBKD, 0 Sacks, 5 Pressures

Chris Smith 48.6 PFF
50 snaps, 4 games, 0 starts
4 QBH, 5 Hurries, 3 QBKD, 1 sack, 9 Pressures

DI
Johnathan Hankins 63.4 PFF
381 snaps, 10 Games, 10 Starts
1 QBH, 1 Hurry, 1 QBKD, 0 Sack, 2 Pressures

Mo Hurst 81.1 PFF
144 snaps, 6 games, 0 starts
5 QBH, 2 Hurry, 3 QBKD, 0.5 sacks, 6 pressures

Maliek Collins 38.1 PFF
384 snaps, 9 Games, 9 Starts
1 QBH, 5 Hurries, 1 QBKD, 0 Sacks, 6 Pressures

Kendal Vickers 40.3 PFF
168 snaps, 9 Games, 1 Start
0 QBH, 2 Hurries, 0 QBKD, 0 Sacks, 2 Pressures