Official 2016 Free Agency Thread

Wondering how much $ they're going to receive...

PG
Mike Conley - once all-D, 15/6
Greivis Vasquez - 9/5 star backup
Jeremy Lin (PO) - 12/4 star backup
Brandon Jennings - 15/6 starter

SG
Bradley Beal (RFA) 18 ppg sniper
Kent Bazemore - double digit bench player
Arron Afflalo - 3&D
DeMar DeRozan G/SF (ETO) - All-Star scorer with limited range
Gary Neal - star backup sniper

SF
Kevin Durant SF - Boss
Nicolas Batum SF - borderline star
Harrison Barnes SF (R) 15/5 possible system product, emerging as star
Chandler Parsons SF (P) - 15-point emerging star sniper
Chase Budinger SF - star backup do-it-all player
Luol Deng SF - aging vet, still high skill and effort
Jeff Green SF - stretch 4, uneven motivation
Marvin Williams SF - 10/6 quality three-point shooter

PF
Ryan Anderson PF - elite stretch 4

C
Hassan Whiteside C - dominant PnR big
Al Horford C/PF - 4x all-star, 17/8
Bismack Biyombo C/PF (P) - star backup hustle/ PnR big
Ian Mahinmi C - star backup hustle / PnR big
Joakim Noah C - aging, injuries, former defensive star
Pau Gasol C - aging elite offensive game, no defense
Zaza Pachulia - double double abilities
Timofey Mozgov - could be a double double
Festus Ezeli - injury concerns, excellent potential; could be a double double
Roy Hibbert (backup $$) - former elite defensive anchor, no offense
Boban Marjanovic - absurd talent, questionable longevity
Al Jefferson C - former all-nba, can still score and rebound, age/injury issues

 

If we lose the #1 pick, I think we're going to see either a panic move from Jim and Mitch where they make a really stupid trade to try and get us to the 8th seed, OR we do what we've done the last two seasons and pick up a late first rounder, early second rounder and a giant expiring contract to help get us to the salary minimum. If Durant signs a one and one type deal, I actually don't mind the second option as long as Byron is gone. At least we might finally get to really see what Clarkson/Randle/Russell are capable of. So can Durant and Westbrook.

 

I think Conley, Durant, Batum, Beal, Derozan, Anderson, Whiteside, and Horford all get max deals of various lengths from a team. Barnes is maybe on that list too if GS decides to pony up and pay the man or if they really do go after Durant. If they go after Durant, I hope it's us that offers him the max.

Vasquez, Afflalo, Green, Gasol, Pachulia, Mozgov, Ezeli, and Jefferson have a good shot at 10+ million.

The rest are up in the air to me. I could see some of them being bargain bin type of players that get around 6-9 million or they could find a suitor that likes them desperately and goes over 10 million for them.

I think guys like Neal and Budinger are your bargain bin types though. They do some things well, but not a lot of proof this season. It's hard to pay a guy like that a ton of money. Heck Budinger is hard to read at all. He started off with good promise, but after his injury his numbers are entirely unimpressive and he's not playing many minutes in Indy right now.

 

I wouldn't be shocked at all if we left with Afflalo, Deng, and Mozgov. I'd be a little surprised at Deng since he's older and is likely to want to compete. Afflalo could also probably find a gig on a competing team. All three of those guys have some moderate injury problems.

What's cool and what makes me hopeful: if it's like you said and those guys command 8-10 million each we would STILL have a max slot open assuming we lose the pick.

We'll have about 27 million or so on the books after waiving our BRs for Huertas, Kobe, Metta, Sacre, and Kelly along with a Bass opt out.

The cap is already expected to exceed the initial 89 million people were expecting in fact recent reports say maybe up to 92 million. Let's say 90 million.

Cap holds get us to roughly 30 million dollars (probably a little less).

Add in the 24-30 million dollars for Mozgov, Deng, and Afllalo and you're looking at 30 million left. If we stretch Nick Young (a definite possibility) we could have just a bit of extra cash. Enough to certainly throw at a guy like Horford, Derozan, or Whiteside if we look more attractive with more relevant pieces.

Russell/Clarkson
Afflalo/Williams
Derozan/Deng/Brown
Randle/Nance Jr.
Whiteside/Mozgov/Black

If we miss on the pick, that's a team that's within the realm of possibility. Personally I'd switch Afflalo for Vazquez assuming he recovers fully from injury and then look into trying to find a bargain bin PF/C behind Nance Jr. in case his knees don't hold up.

 

I should hope so... Otherwise we're in for an even longer summer than I'm anticipating.

I think there certainly could be a way to do this if those are our among our early calls. I think if you call some of these mid-level talents and make them a good early offer, you can snag them. Especially a guy like Mozgov should jump at the first sign of big money. He's been underwhelming this season and lost a lot of his minutes to Tristan Thompson who is significantly smaller than him. If someone is willing to offer him a bunch of money, he ought to take it right away.

The Lakers should have Mitch, Ryan, and probably Jeanie on the phones at 12:00:01 calling all over the place and making offers right away. The first calls I guess would have to go to Durant, Horford, and Derozan. After that though, by 12:01 we should already be on the phone with Whiteside, Batum, and Harrison Barnes' people. Then 12:02 we're making calls and offering good contracts to those other guys we just mentioned. Early in the process get in these guys' ears and tell them we've got a big paycheck and big role for them on the team.

 

Filling in the details...

PG
MAX: Mike Conley - once all-D, 15/6
12M: Brandon Jennings - 15/6 starter
10M: Greivis Vasquez - 9/5 star backup
8M: Jeremy Lin (PO) - 12/4 star backup

SG
MAX: Bradley Beal (RFA) 18 ppg sniper
MAX: DeMar DeRozan G/SF (ETO) - All-Star scorer with limited range
10M: Arron Afflalo - 3&D
8M: Kent Bazemore - double digit bench player
MLE: Gary Neal - star backup sniper

SF
MAX: Kevin Durant SF - Boss
MAX: Nicolas Batum SF - borderline star
MAX: Harrison Barnes SF (R) 15/5 possible system product, emerging as star
MAX: Chandler Parsons SF (P) - 15-point emerging star sniper
10M: Luol Deng SF - aging vet, still high skill and effort
10M: Jeff Green SF - stretch 4, uneven motivation
10M: Marvin Williams SF - 10/6 quality three-point shooter
MLE: Chase Budinger SF - star backup do-it-all player

PF
MAX: Ryan Anderson PF - elite stretch 4

C
MAX: Hassan Whiteside C - dominant PnR big
MAX: Al Horford C/PF - 4x all-star, 17/8
12M: Zaza Pachulia - double double abilities10M: Bismack Biyombo C/PF (P) - star backup hustle/ PnR big
10M: Al Jefferson C - former all-nba, can still score and rebound, age/injury issues
10M: Ian Mahinmi C - star backup hustle / PnR big
10M: Joakim Noah C - aging, injuries, former defensive star
10M: Pau Gasol C - aging elite offensive game, no defense
10M: Timofey Mozgov - could be a double double
10M: Festus Ezeli - injury concerns, excellent potential; could be a double double
MLE: Roy Hibbert (backup $$) - former elite defensive anchor, no offense
MLE: Boban Marjanovic - absurd talent, questionable longevity

 

I think we're really underestimating what players are going to be worth or making. This new tv deal is going to make us go nuts over what some players will be getting.

 

I don't think all these guys are getting max dollars. At some point people have to ask themselves, do I really want to tie up 30 million dollars...almost 1/3 of my cap space...with Nicolas Batum?

 

Batum is about $25.3M. He'll probably get that, but that doesn't mean that all of those players will get more. There will still be a pecking order, and after the clear maxes fall, other players will do with less.

 

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/projecting-2015-2016-max-salary-tiers/

Good article explaining how maxes are calculated and what they will likely be for next year.

 

Posted in GT. Could add a quartet of players for second tier $

Russell/Clarkson
Afflalo/Williams
Deng/Young/Brown
Randle/Nance
Pachulia/Biyombo

Look for our SF the following year. You know, after his one year deal expires and he sees what we're cooking.