Unfortunately, individual defensive rating isn't the same thing as team defensive rating. Individual defensive rating is just a formula that attempts to calculate defense through box score stats, which I don't think is a good way to measure defense. However, if you look at his defensive +/- numbers, which is like team defensive rating, you can see exactly how much worse his team gets with him on the court. Notice the trend. Rondo on/off defensive numbers (higher is worse): 2013-14: +6.3 points per 48 2012-13: +0.1 points per 48 2011-12: +2.1 points per 48 2010-11: +2.1 points per 48 2009-10: -1.3 points per 48 2008-09: +0.2 points per 48 2007-08: -1.3 points per 48 This is as a starter. In other words, regular +/- is heavily influenced by the players you mostly play with. He played mostly with KG, Pierce, Perkins, and Ray Allen. Outside of Allen, playing with them should help his defensive numbers, but Rondo's numbers still look average to bad, aside from that initial C Bags run. You'll see that the past 4 years, the teams have been better on defense without him on court, despite getting a significant boost in his numbers by playing with KG. If you look at defensive RAPM to adjust for the players around him, you will notice the downward trend of his defense (this time higher is better). 2013-14: -1.45 2012-13: -1.42 2011-12: -0.56 2010-11: -0.19 2009-10: -0.15 2008-09: +0.19 2007-08: +0.51 Every year, his defensive RAPM has gotten progressively worse, although he should get a pass for last year.
Where are those on/off numbers from? BBRef has really different numbers: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rondora01/on-off/ Also, 82games.com has really different numbers: http://www.82games.com/1112/11BOS1.HTM#onoff Like in 11/12, he was at +5.7 (where higher is better): They scored 7.9 more with him on than off but surrendered 2.1 more, for a net of ~5.7. I'm not saying your numbers are wrong, but I guess I don't know what your numbers are. EDIT: I see what you're looking at, but surrendering 2.1 more per 48 doesn't mean YOU'RE the bad defender. Pierce's was +2.6 Allen's was +5.2 Bradley's was -4.4, lower than Garnett's. Do you think he's that good defensively? BTW, in BBREF's own explanation of the stats - they are the same stat at base, and that they are skewed to give bigs better numbers generally. Or you can look at his Defensive Win Shares: between 3.4 and 5.1 every season he has played more than 40 games. That's really good. His Counterpart Numbers on 82games.com are amazing. I'm going to go with his reputation, what most others say, and all these stats and stick to my suggestion that he's a good defender. I'll be watching him this year, though, to see what shakes out. I don't want him if he's unhealthy.
Pierce was +2.6 for one season, which was a shortened season. He struggled that entire season, but if you put things in perspective by looking at the entire run, Pierce had a good defensive impact every other season with the C Bags. In other words, that one season was an outlier. This doesn't apply for Rondo because he has had a "bad" (not really "bad" but more along the lines of not good lol) defensive impact every single season for the past 4 seasons. Ray Allen is a bad defender though, which I noted in the initial post. However, +/- isn't perfect, which is why I like to look at defensive RAPM numbers. Rondo's defensive RAPM numbers, which adjusts for the players you play with, shows that he has been getting progressively worse every season and has been a negative since the 09-10 season. To put his -1.4 into perspective, other guards in that area last season were Jarret Jack, Goran Dragic, Barbosa, and Marshon Brooks. I consider his -1.4 an outlier though and don't think his defense is quite as bad as it was these past 2 seasons. However, he's not that great defensive PG that many people tout him to be. He hasn't been for a while. Edit: Just for fun, these players had the best defensive RAPMs at their positions. First: PG: Eric Bledsoe SG: Tony Allen SF: Andre Iguodala PF: Kevin Garnett C: Andrew Bogut Second: PG: Chris Paul SG: Danny Green SF: Luol Deng PF: Tim Duncan C: Dwight Howard Third: PG: Ricky Rubio SG: Thabo Sefolosha SF: Paul George PF: Taj Gibson C: Marc Gasol
That's just it...Rondo on the team? Sure. At max money...eh that's a lot to pay. If he's bringing another good or great player with him looking to team up then cool, but if next year all we are building around is Rondo/Kobe I'm not going to be too excited.
The formula for winning with Kobe is having a good big man, so perhaps that's the route we should go for first.
That's a cool stat, but you know those players. Bledsoe is solid, but I can't believe he's the best PG defender in the league. Same with KG, Iggy, and Bogut - good defenders? Sure. Best at their position? Nah. Chris Paul on the second team? Ricky Rubio! It's like other stats - a piece of the puzzle, but I wouldn't pin my life and reputation on it.
Interesting that you say that. I've always considered KG and Iggy to be the best or one of the best defensive players at their position so I actually consider the stat to be extremely accurate. KG's problem is that he can only play limited minute so they adjusted it for minutes played, he probably wouldn't be #1 (and the stat might reflect more closely with who you have at #1). The same goes for Bogut. He's very good on defense and has made a huge impact on the Warriors and Bucks, but the dude can't stay on the floor. I wouldn't say he's the best, but I think we can agree that he's one of the best at his position. As for Rubio, I've actually been saying that he's one of the best defensive PGs since I first saw him play. He was already so good on defense during his rookie season and normally, rookies are trash on defense. Not sure about CP3 to be honest. I wasn't expecting him there. Lol. I don't think he should be there, but if you look at the previous season, he was a negative so CP3 is more of an outlier since like you said, no stat is perfect. I look at this stat more as a "grouping" of levels. You've got great defensive players, good ones, average ones, below average ones, and terrible ones. The level of impact your defense has can depend on the scheme and chemistry, but the great ones (like Iggy, Garnett, Dwight Coward, etc.) are able to be great regardless of where they play. The bad ones (Calderon, Stoudemire, Bargnani, Jennings) will probably be bad, regardless of where they play.
I shuddered when I saw that photoshopped picture of him wearing Lakers gear. Give me an upgrade at wing or center any day over Rondo, a star PG. Lin hasn't even proved himself but I think he's a great PG to have - above average, but not an all-star.
Thank you. Some people on this board and in Lakers nation are desperate for a "star" to make themselves feel better about the team. Trust me when I say I was completely fired up about the season before it started. Now? Im simply in GM mode. I hope we get to keep that top 5 pick, Im praying we can get Okafor/Mudiay(2 players at position of need for us,I dont know if theres any capable day 1 starters at SF out there?) that have the potential to start on rookie contracts along side Randle whose also on a rookie contract. Kobe,2 starters on rookie contracts, than 30 mill to spend on two other starters and depth. Since this is a Rondo thread and my gut says not to him, Ill still play along. Rondo@15 Mill Kobe Rudy Gay@15 mill? Randle Okafor?
They (KG, AI) were, perhaps, at one time, but even three years ago KG was old and not the best at his position. Iggy is problematic; I'm a huge fan of his game, but he has been overpaid and on the decline physically for years - I think he had some injury a few years back, but I'm not sure. In my view Rubio is one of the worst defenders I've seen at the PG spot (or at the very least he's below average). No strength, gambles, can't keep a guy in front of him. CP3 is a thief master, so I understand that when you look at stat-driven measures, he's going to do well. So it does't surprise me, but it does show how steals-driven it is. I think it's a fine stat, and it's part of the story
So let Kobe run the offense and start Nick Young?.. Gives our lineup good size and gets rid of the PG need. BTW-I dont really get your reply due to Roy being a PG. Also wasnt aware Gay isnt a good 3 pt shooter.. Stats I looked up is he shoots them 44% this year?
Are you talking to me? Brandon Roy was not a PG. He was 6'6", and he and Kobe guarded each other. Rudy Gay has hit 8 of 18 threes this year. He's a career 34% three-point shooter. That's not good. It's not horrendous, but I wouldn't say he shoots the three well. Same with Kobe. He's okay at threes.
I'm a bit concerned with the injuries he's been having lately. And he's not exactly young anymore. He'll be 29 years old in 2015. If he can have a good season and stay healthy, I'd consider it.
I'll admit that even I start to think like this as well, but its time to come to some sense. When did 29 or 30 years of age become old? For a basketball player old really isn't until 34 or 35. I know that minutes played is a factor but I definitely remember many years ago when I was younger analysts and basketball guys would say that their prime is 28-33. Its seems like something or maybe a few players in the league has altered our state of mind when it comes to this and I don't know why.
I love Rondo's game, would absolutely take him on this team, but not for the max at 29. I won't even begin to discuss the numbers put up in this thread, just going off what I've seen with my eyes he is IMO one of the best (and only) PG's that plays real defense in the league. He's also one of the "stars" out there that actually ups his game in the playoffs, that is the kind of player I want on my team.
I don't see Rondo getting max from anyone, for 13-15 million per season hell yeah sign me up. Anything more and you better have the rest of your ducks in line because that's a large chunk of money to invest in someone and not surround them with the right players. Kobe / Hill / Davis / Kelly / Randle / Young / Clarkson I see those guys working really well with Rondo. Rondo would do wonders for the bigs and Young/Clarkson/Kelly can space the floor for him. Still would need a 3 and D starting SF. If you can get him for less than max, you have to do it.
^Agreed. If he's healthy, has a productive season, and you can get him for less than the max leaving you some cap flexibility to finish building this roster, you have to do it.
