DRAFT TALK Thread: Looking Like Lonzo

@abeer3 and I have had some great debates on this, but I think this video shows best why I think Ball will bring ball movement to the Lakers.

Now abeer is 100% right that some of these assists just don't exist on our roster. Some of his assists come from just having shooters. You can see some of them in that video. I think on our team that sort of movement will be great for easy looks early in the clock, but they won't be threes because we just don't have anyone who can hit that. Russell is probably our best shooter (Nick/Lou are gone and I don't trust Ennis) and even D'Angelo is a 35% shooter. Only Deng and Clarkson shot over 30% from deep, everyone else was in the 20% range. Not good. By contrast, UCLA had four players (including Lonzo) who shot over 40% from deep and Hamilton shot 36.6% as well. Some of those points are left on the table with our roster until Ingram, Randle, Nance, etc all improve and get more consistent from outside.

Still, the key to me is how low Ball's usage percentage is. He doesn't hold on to the ball and when your point guard doesn't hold on to the ball and is constantly moving, it sets a great tone for the rest of the team. Those outlet passes will be there, they just won't often result in three points. Guys like Randle and Ingram can leak out quickly in transition or semi-transition while Russell/Ball can each step into threes while trailing the play the way Paul Pierce used to in Boston. Then of course there's the trust that comes with all that passing. My favorite part of watching UCLA play was watching the ball movement. Right now we have exactly zero players that play with that sort of unselfish attitude. Randle holds the ball forever. Clarkson could drill holes in the floor he dribbles for so long. Russell makes great passes, but he waits for the assist window instead of moving the ball early. Ball would encourage the type of unselfish ball movement you see from Golden State that is instrumental in their offense clicking.

I'm not 100% all in on Ball, but he's absolutely my favorite for the #2 pick. If we go another direction it'll tell me that his workout was terrible and that the Lakers dug up something that they didn't like in him, but I very much expect him to be the pick.

 

And this here is why Fultz will go number one. Disclaimer: the video shows a lot of NBA comparisons, but it's just to provide examples, not actually comparing Fultz to all the best guards in the NBA. They're there to show you how his game would translate over time to the next level. Just saying this now because I'm sure someone will pop through talking about how he's the next Jordan/Wade/Lillard combo or go the opposite way and point out that the video is useless because he's not as good as all those players.

The takeaway is that at some ridiculous young age Fultz shows the type of scoring instincts that you just rarely see. He's got the shell to be one of the premier scorers in the NBA when he hits his prime. These moves come naturally to him where some guys have had to work years to craft that footwork and ability. Think about DeRozan's footwork now compared to when he first came into the league. This is where Fultz gets compared to Lillard because Lillard showed some of that same natural ability to score, but Lillard came into the league much older than Fultz is about to.

 

This would be the main reason I'd be excited about Josh Jackson. Now obviously there's some caveats here, but again the bones are there. Jackson has very good vision for his size and occasionally would run the offense for Kansas.

In the NBA he might never be a four and that would mean some of what made his vision helpful will be gone when he makes the transition. He'll be a SG/SF in the NBA and his size advantage will be completely lost/nullified. However, he'll be a great passer in transition and he'd be another guy that'd give us that GS-esque ability to grab and push with four players on the floor. If we ran with Russell/Jackson/Ingram/Randle we'd have four people capable of grabbing the ball and pushing it down the floor for easy looks and every one of them would be capable of making good decisions once out there.

I know Jackson will come with other baggage, but keep this in mind when you think about him being taken high up in the draft.

 

So I remembered reading that Lavar claimed Lonzo pulled his hamstring in that UCLA/Kentucky game that many Lonzo detractors love to talk about. I found the article http://www.ocregister.com/2017/04/0...-guys-foot-speed-for-uclas-tournament-demise/
It's the same one where Lavar claims that they couldn't win because of the white guys.

The article claims that Lonzo's gait changes in the game from start to finish, but I couldn't see anything significantly different. What I did notice was that about half-way through the second Lonzo stops handling the ball as much and appears visibly frustrated at times. This happens to coincide with Kentucky going on a run. I don't think Lonzo "popped his hamstring" as he'd have to come out of the game if that were true, but he may have tweaked something because it's unlike him to be uninvolved offensively. In previously close games, Lonzo never shied away from the spotlight, even high profile games. The Oregon game comes to mind.

In conclusion: Lonzo was likely a bit dinged up in that game, but I'm not sure to what extent. In the article it points out that when he's been banged up, he's struggled to score and be effective. I think Lonzo is a tough kid and wants to be out there helping his team win, but he's also a skinny kid and is likely to be banged up at times similarly to how D'Angelo has had some tough luck early in his career. I think D'Angelo is a little more dramatic about it, but the two of them are going to have moments when their smaller build will be an issue if we end up drafting Lonzo.

 

Forgot to post this!


The workout was at CAA who represents D'Angelo. They also represent Julius Randle, Paul George, Pau Gasol, Dwayne Wade, and a lot of other young guys like Tony Snell, Gary Harris, Bobby Portis, Allen Crabbe, Reggie Jackson, Kris Dunn, Elfrid Payton, etc. etc.

 

I know, but some people are too lazy to click. Just trying to help out.

I appreciate you posting it. I think it's very cool seeing D'Angelo step up into that challenge that Magic placed in front of him. It's the first step towards the maturity we need from all our young guys.

 

I think Cali folks are clouded on this issue. LA may well take Ball, but I don't think anyone should be shocked or surprised if they don't. It's not a slam dunk.

 

I'm not sure we're so much clouded on this issue as much as we are more..well informed? It's more like we got to spend an entire college ball season watching Lonzo Ball play and we saw the impact he had on UCLA. I always admit UCLA is my team and that may cause bias in some cases, but I'm certainly not blind and can tell when my UCLA team isn't good enough to win or doesn't have NBA caliber players. It was fairly obvious that Love was an NBA potential star, that Westbrook had major potential, and that guys like Farmar, Collison, and Mbah a Moute were good to great college players that weren't gonna tear up the league but could be good. And others like Ryan Hollins would be lucky to be end of bench guys.

I think if Ball played for any school out there this year, Kentucky, Duke, Carolina, his skills and amazing basketball IQ would have been on display. That he played for UCLA only allowed many of us here the opportunity to get a game by game look at a top 5 prospect, which doesn't happen a lot with PAC 12 teams. It's impossible to have watched Ball this college ball season and not be impressed with his game, his team first attitude, his passing skills, his outside shot, and and ability to finish at the rim. You can say Cali folks are clouded with Ball, but it can also be true at the same time that we just got to watch him a ton and were convinced by what we saw. I don't know what else we really have to go by than what we saw with our eyes and with stats, and he looks good under both measurements. But yes, if we don't take it it's not the end of the world.