D'Angelo Russell Discussion: Adopting A Professional Attitude

Klay's game isn't based on elite athleticism. He could be close to full production by April. It wouldn't surprise me if Russell is still on the roster at the end of this season, and then traded in the offseason when they have more time to integrate the player(s) they get for him into their system. In fact, I'm sure that's the route they will take unless they receive an offer they can't refuse. Steph/Russ/Klay/Green/WCS is a small lineup, but talented enough to win a title.

 

This could be, as they’d preserve their core and add some draft stock. I’m concerned, if I’m a warriors fan, regarding an aging Draymond. Steph and Klay can shoot for another six years. They’re fine.

 

Draymond Green signs a four year, $100m extension. That's a lot better than it might have been.

 

I agree about the difficulty quantifying his value. He's a DPOY, three-time all star, 2-time all-d 2nd, 3-time all-d 1st, and a 2nd and 3rd all-nba award. People definitely regard him as valuable, but people are often wrong. Defensive metrics are so tough to make sense of.
He had the fifth best D-PIPM last season, behind Giannis, Embiid, Gobert, and Marc Gasol. This list surely passes the laugh test.

He had the fourth best DRPM last year behind Gobert, Ed Davis, and Nerlens Noel (Embiid was next).

On the data from 82games.com, both opposing PFs and Centers did BETTER when he was on the court despite the fact that his team was noticeably better overall with him on the court.

There's a lot to sift through here, but it seems pretty clear that he was still an exceptionally good defender last year.

I think he's aging and doesn't take care of himself as well as he should, so I'd bet against him over the next four years.

 

I don't love it, but he'll be 33. And 30m is right now only 28% of the cap. The league average salary was $6.4m. The cap is expected to grow to $116m the next season. If it grows just half that, about $3.5m per season, then in five years Draymond's salary would be 24%. If it grows at about $7m per year, then we're looking at 22%. I think these percentages are more important than dollar values. Is a 33 year old Green worth about 1/4 to 1/5 of your cap if it means you get an elite defender for the next three years? Probably.

The roster is in a tough spot this year, facing a hard cap with Klay out until the ASG. They need to create flexibility however they can - so they had to dump some guys they didn't want to lose now. And they probably had to lock up Green now, too.

 

It is conceivable the third place team in the pacific division will have home court in the first round of the playoffs.

 

ESPN's yearly rankings are out. They have Russ at... #26

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27691396/ranking-best-players-nba-season-30-11

 

I agree. I think he might be top 50. For what it’s worth, Ball, Randle, and maybe Kuzma were all in the top 100.

 

Russell's 2019-20 Outlook
Russ has a new role to adapt to. It's something like what he was asked to do for stretches early in his career when Jordan Clarkson ran point and Russ played off ball. It's a bit different from the role he thrived in during his Brooklyn tenure - the main ball handler. On the bright side, rather than Jordan Clarkson, it will be Steph Curry with the ball when Russ doesn't have it. And with Kerr intentionally staggering their minutes, Russ will be the main man on the court for stretches. Both of these should ease the transition.

HISTORY
Russell is coming off his most successful season - with 21.1 points, 7.0 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game. He's one of just 12 players to do that by age 23. The others are Tiny Archibald, Iverson, LeBron, Kevin Johnson, Magic, Marbury, CP3, Oscar Robertson, Derrick Rose, Isiah Thomas, and Russell Westbrook.

He took steps toward addressing his three biggest weaknesses: availability, defense, and inefficient shooting.

Availability: Russ played in 81 games last season, posting 2448 minutes, giving him two personal bests in that regard. That was the 38th most minutes played by any NBA player last season.
Defense: He posted his best DRtg, best DBPM, most DWS, and he led Brooklyn with 177 deflections (70 more than Rodions Kurucs in second place, 95 more than back court mate Dinwiddie), was first on the team in offensive loose balls recovered (46), second in defensive loose balls recovered (41), and contested the fourth most shots on the team.
Shooting: Russell's 43.4% on FGs was a career best, his 36.9% clip on threes was a career best, and his 78.0% on FTs was .2% off his career best. These combined for his highest TS% (53.3) and eFG% (51.2) in his career.

SYSTEM
The Warriors have had incredible players, incredibly good luck with health (overall), and continuity in personnel. These have contributed to massive success for the team. But now some pieces are gone. Durant and Iggy will be especially missed. But the team that remains still has an identity, and Russ has time to mesh with Curry and Green while Thompson is on the mend. Expect lots of open threes, but Russ has been given the greenlight to PnR to his heart's content.

PRESEASON
There were some struggles here, as Russ got off to a slow start. That's to be expected, as he was the new piece in a well-oiled machine. But by preseason's end, he had back to back 20-point games, was shooting 44% on FGs, 36% on threes, and 90% on FTs. That would be, overall, his best shooting line in his career. He was also getting to the line a bit more than last season (1 FTA/9.9 minutes vs. 1/11.9 minutes).

Where he's struggling is in finding himself in the passing game (12 AST vs. 11 TO) and getting into the flow properly on defense. He's not alone, as the Warriors' D has looked pretty awful at times in the preseason.

PROJECTING
For a guy whose usage increased and stats leapt upwards, this may be a bit of a disappointing season in terms of counting stats. Russ's four-year trend (per 36) has been 17-4-4 as a rookie, 20-6-4 as a sophomore, 22-7-6 in year three, and 25-8-5 last season. It's hard to see him getting 22 shots per 36 or handing out 8+ dimes per 36. So, although his efficiency may well increase, the don't expect another leap (in stats).

Line: 68 games, 30.5 MPG, 22.3 PPG, 6.1 APG, 3.8 RPG