Coronavirus - What Are The Implications?

Here's a disclaimer: my life has not been negatively affected at all by COVID or COVID-related closures. I work from home now, enjoy a lower cost of living, see my family more, and have all the workout equipment I need to be in better shape than I was prior to the closures. I'm writing more, having more social time to see my parents via Zoom, and I'm generally more productive than ever. I also have good insurance, a strong support system, and I do relatively well financially. If I go into public for a workout, I don't wear a mask. If I go into a store, which I've done maybe four or five times since this all began, I wear a mask. In brief, this is not personal...

My wife has asked me to look at a few of the videos she's seen circulating around to see what looks to be true and what false. Her uncle sends her this stuff and admits he's not sure what to believe, so we dig through some of the material.

EMPIRICAL STUFF

• There's a lot of bad math - forget the science for a moment - going around. The Lezano video is a masterwork in bad math and failed critical thinking, for instance.
• The Bill Gates stuff is almost certainly nuts but not for bad math. It's just bad listening to/watching what he says about cases. You can lower population growth while not killing anyone. In fact, the easiest way to slow population is to allow women to be educated.
• The police officer looking at death rates in places with/without restrictions is more bad math. I won't say he's wholly wrong - because we don't have all the numbers we would need. But he takes no account of population density, number of people who travel into and out of the state from other states and internationally.
• There's an article that highlights some risk classes on COVID. One of them is being obese. The idea is that if you're obese, you're in a greater risk class. This MAY be true, but it was suggested based on the following data: 59% of early deaths from COVID in adults were obese. But, this came from a sample size of 39 individuals. Moreover, this neglects the base rate - the fact that 42% of adults in the US population are obese. In other words, if we took a random sampling of adults, we'd find that 42% of them were obese. The difference between 42 and 59 might be significant, but it might not - and we surely don't have much evidence with only 39 data points. In general, base rates have been neglected in the discussion of COVID.
• China and Russis are surely lying about their COVID deaths.

MORAL STUFF

• The people who initially posted memes about the dinosaurs fleeing from meoteors, crying, "The economy," don't get it. The economy is not a bunch of rich white dudes counting stacks of money. It's people in jobs. It's my mom who lost 1/4 of her retirement savings in a week - and she retires in less than two weeks. It's a 16% decrease in retail, along with a 45% increase in unemployment claims in the US. It's really people not having jobs, money, security, and, in some cases, the ability to purchase life-saving measures.
• I'm an anarchist. I'm the most liberal person I know, if liberal means, "a commitment to (negative) freedoms." But if you think it's easy to see where to draw the line on where one's freedom starts and one's stops in a case like this, I don't think you're taking the debate seriously. Jason Brennan, a philosopher and libertarian, wrote a piece called "The Libertarian Case for Mandatory Vaccines." I'm posting a link. If you know how to use sci-hub, you can get it for free. He won't mind - he's a libertarian. https://jme.bmj.com/content/44/1/37 I post this not because I agree with it. I honestly am not sure on movement restrictions and vaccines. (I do think that children are neither property not full rights possessors, and I think that parental rights over children are massively overblown in this country.) I post it so you can see that sensible people sometimes hold views you disagree with and people whose general positions you might disagree with sometimes hold views you agree with.

 

This is a great breakdown on why the psychological effects of this lockdown could be broad.

 

Whenever someone makes a claim, there are two questions you should ask.

"Oh, yeah?"
This means, "Is it even true?"
Has Fauci really not treated anyone for 36 years (he may not have - see below)? Has he not consulted on cases? Done case studies?
Ferrer has a Ph.D. She's a doctor. You mean she's not a medical doctor. Your terminology is confused here ("not even MD and she is not a doctor" - what does that mean?).

"So what?"
This means, "What does it matter?"

Fauci has been a researcher and director of NIAID for 36 years, so I presume that it's at least plausible that he hasn't treated anyone for 36 years. But so what? That's not relevant to knowledge of epidemiology and the spread of infectious disease. He has published tons of articles, is widely cited in the medical community. It's almost as if the medical community - the ones with the knowledge - respect him. So, why does it matter if he hasn't treated patients?

Once again, so what? What does it matter if Ferrer is an MD? What does it matter if she's a practicing physician? You seem unaware of how academia works. There are tons of people who know a lot about many things despite not having a particular credential you seem concerned with.

I don't know your situation, but neither of those people have closed LA or made it impossible for you to leave your house. That's your Governor. But, if you're really cooped up in your house and can't get out, let me know. There are tons of awesome resources for getting healthy while at home. Florida has been in a lockdown, but we've been able to get out for exercise, so I haven't reduced my physical activity at all during the lockdown. And as of May 1st, we are phasing open the state. I haven't changed my activity since we've relaxed the requirements. I kinda like not having to drive around and do things outside the house, but my job (I'm a Ph.D. and professor) works perfectly well online.

 

Fauci is a "TV doctor"? Classic.

I have friends who are RNs and doctors, too, and I don't know any who say it's "the biggest bs in the world." It may well be overblown, and the risk to you or me might be incredibly small, but we've seen more deaths from this than the flu despite distancing measures.

I don't go to the restroom wearing gloves and mask. It's almost like you're being intentionally hyperbolic and not even reading anything I've posted. I leave my home regularly. I avoid close encounters with people other than the people who live with me.

All that said, I fully support individuals' right to decide whether they want to interact with others voluntarily.