2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

Looking at Walter Football's mocks...

1.12: CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma
1.19: Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma

I don't know much about Murray, but let's talk about Lamb. He should be able to become the WR1 on this team within a year, and he'd give the Raiders a reliable route runner with good hands. With Lamb, WIlliams, Renfrow, and Waller, the Raiders would be in pretty good shape.

 

RECEIVER (21/37.5) F

Some things went as well as could be expected – like Hunter Renfrow claiming the top spot as the most effective WR on the Raiders, being one of the top WRs in the draft, and a legitimate WR 3 with near WR 2 production.

Some things went as poorly as could be expected – like losing two mid-round picks in exchange for no production from Antonio Brown. If Brown had given a full season at even half the production he gave New England for one game, he would have finished with 32 receptions, 448 yards, and 8 TDs. That would have been better than every WR not named Tyrell or Hunter on roster.

And some things went exactly as expected, in the end, like Tyrell Williams being frustrating despite posting numbers exactly in line with his previous two seasons. In fact, he was arguably better - higher catch%, higher yards per target, and more TDs.

Plenty of players showed flashes – like Ateman, Doss, and Gafford. But none have shown the ability to be anything more than WR4 at this point. That’s not a problem, if LV drafts a top WR.

On the Roster (2019)

Marcell Ateman, Keelan Doss, Rico Gafford, Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, Tyrell Williams, Anthony Ratliff-Williams* (Reserve/Future), Dwayne Harris* (IR)

Under Contract (2020+)

Ateman, Gafford, Jones, Renfrow, Williams

Positional Strength

F: Renfrow and Williams give the team solid production from a WR2 and WR3, but there’s no top end right now. Even a decent WR in the draft would move the needle. Among the first ten WRs drafted, eight of them would have been clear upgrades for the Raiders. The other two (Arcega-Whiteside and Hurd) are promising going forward.

Recommendation

The Raiders face a few decisions here. Harris, a valuable return man, is an easy one to move on from, despite his skills. He's now 32, and he doesn't offer much in the passing game. Doss and Ratliff-Williams will likely fight it out for a spot. ARW offers return skills, but Doss has some experience in the offense.

In the FA market, there's Robby Anderson. Anderson's market value is $12m, according to Spotrac. He's an adequate WR, and he wouldn't be bad next to Williams and Renfrow, but the price tag is enormous. He has a career catch % below 55, and he hasn't posted a 1000 yard season in his four years.

Cheaper FA options might include Phillip Dorsett, Nelson Agholor, Laquon Treadwell, Breshad Perriman, and Devin Funchess. Some of these won't be cheap, and none of them are WR1s.

The Raiders should take a WR in the first two rounds of the draft. If the player they absolutely need is there with their first pick, they should pull the trigger. But I could see them trading back and picking up a WR, LB, and another defensive player all in the first two rounds.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2020.

**Practice Squad

 

WR - the first position of serious need for the Raiders.

 

Watching highlights of the Titans / Ravens game got me thinking. There's no doubt that Lamar Jackson is an electrifying QB who gives his team a better chance to win than Carr, but I'm reconsidering how I thought about that crushing loss to Tennessee.

Carr went 25-34, 262 yards, 2 TDs, two carries for 17 yards, and he didn't turn it over. He was sacked twice, losing just four yards.
Oakland had no Jacobs in that game, and they got 22 carries for 80 yards from their three RBs. They also had no Hunter Renfrow. They had a gimpy Tyrell Williams.

Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson's team was going strong. He posted monster numbers - over 500 yards of offense. But he threw 59 times to reach his 365 yards. He threw a TD pass - in the fourth quarter. He had two INTs, four sacks, a poor 63.2 passer rating, and he lost a fumble. He rushed 20 times for 143, which is insane. But a chunk of his stats came late.

Jackson rushed for 67 yards and threw for 141 yards - all in the fourth quarter. That's 208 yards in what for Carr would have been dismissed as "garbage time" and irrelevant to the outcome.

This is NOT a Carr is better than Jackson post. It's just that maybe Tennessee is much better than we gave them credit for. The offense does enough to win, and they have a physical defense. When you combine those two, you create easy opportunities for your team to put points on the board.

 

What the f***? I was sort of hoping they’d add Phillips instead of PG. Can’t believe they dropped Buckner.

 

Foster Moreau top graded PFF Rookie Tight End

On the season, Moreau was targeted 25 times.
21 times he caught the pass. That's 84 Catch%.
14 times he recorded a first down.

7 times he was targeted inside the 20.
7 times he caught the ball inside the 20.
5 went for TDs.

4 times he was targeted inside the 10.
4 times he caught the pass.
4 went for TDs.

 

Nah...Brady will be a Patriot at day's end.

 

I'm a Brady fan, or at least I've always liked him. I think he has a couple good years left, but I don't think he's a good fit for this team. How does signing a 43 y/o QB help in the next eight years? We don't have a Belichick defense. So maybe we make the playoffs and win a game. Then Brady plays at most one more season. I don't know. I don't see it.

 

Early stat projections (QB, RB, WR)

Last season, I projected Derek Carr at 3760 yards, 22 TDs, 9 INTs. He finished with 4054 yards, 21 TDs, and 8 INTs. Fantasy pundits are seeing him as on his way to another down season.
Mean: 3155 yards, 18 TDs, 9 INTs
Median: 3202 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs
My Projections: 3921 yards, 22 TDs, 10 INTs. Maybe more.

Last year, I projected Josh Jacobs at 907 yards, 7 TDs, 27-208-1 through the air. He finished with 1150 and 7 on the ground and 20-166 through the air. Stat projections on him are pretty favorable.
Mean: 250 carries, 1107 yards, 8 TDs, with 35 receptions for 272 yards and .8 TDs more.
Median: 256 carries, 1128 yards, 8 TDs with 36 receptions, 280 yards, 1 TD through the air.
My Projections: Pending.

Rookie Lynn Bowden has decent projections, too.
Mean: 35 rushes, 182 yards, 1.2 TD, 18 receptions, 165 yards, 1 TD.
Median: 32 rushes, 138 yards, 1 TD, 17 receptions, 158 yards, 1 TD.
My Projections: Pending.

But Jalen Richard is getting a significantly larger share than Bowden. I had him at 326 rushing, 1 TD, 40-391 receiving. He finished with 145 on the ground and 36-323 through the air, which was a disappointment.
Mean: 60 rushes, 256 yards, 1 TD, 29 receptions, 270 yards, .5 TDs.
Median: 50 rushes, 219 yards, 1 TD, 29 receptions, 244 yards, .5 TDs.
My Projections: Pending.

Henry Ruggs - who looks to be our leading WR on most sites:
Mean: 51 receptions, 730 yards, 4.4 TDs
Median: 52 receptions, 761 yards, 4.3 TDs
My Projections: Pending.

Hunter Renfrow is our leader in receptions in many projections. I projected him at 18-178-1 last season, and he destroyed that with 49-605-4.
Mean: 52 receptions, 618 yards, 4.1 TDs
Median: 56 reception, 650 yards, 4 TDs
My Projections: Pending.

Tyrell Williams is high and low. I had him at 45-836-7 last season. He finished with 42-651-6.
Mean: 37 receptions, 555 yards, 4.1 TDs
Median: 33 receptions, 522 yards, 4.6 TDs
My Projections: Pending.

And Bryan Edwards checks in with so-so rookie production.
Mean: 14 receptions, 168 yards, 1.1 TDs.
Median: 10 receptions, 123 yards, 1 TD.
My Projections: Pending.

 

Darren Waller leads the way among the TEs. He destroyed my projections last year.
Mean: 77-907-5
Median: 76-916-5

Jason Witten is coming off a 63-529-4 season. Most see him as our TE2.
Mean: 14-120-1
Median: 13-120-1

Foster Moureau had a promising rookie season, showing good ability to make it happen in the redzone. With more weapons around him, most see him regressing a bit.
Mean: 12-111-1
Median: 11-110-1

Derek Carrier and Nick O'Leary duke it out for the last spot. Carrier is getting the nod on more projections...
Mean: 7-62-0.3
Median: 5-51-0

O'Leary is left off most projections.
Mean: 10-104-.7
Median: 11-120-1

 

Ruggs 51-730-4.4
Renfrow 52-618-4.1
Williams 37-555-4.1
Edwards 14-168-1.1
That's 154-2072-13.7 from the WRs.

The top TEs add:
Waller 77-907-5
Witten 14-120-1
Moreau 12-111-1
That's 105-1138-7

So, we're at 254-3210-20.7.

The top 3 RBs add:
Jacobs 35-272-0.8
Bowden 18-165-1
Richard 29-270-0.5
That's 82-607-2.3

So, that's 336 completions, 3817 yards, and 23 TDs. That's not a bad ballpark for Carr.