2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

Watched the highlights. Offense moved the ball well. Nearly 500 yards of offense. Can’t believe Oakland didn’t get a score earlier. Renfrow dropped a TD. Ingold looked to break the plain. Missed FG. Terrible job finishing drives in the first half.

 

On mini vacation. But Raiders extend Incognito through 2021.

 

6-4 at one time and the weak *** ******** happened.

Gruden timeline:

Year 1 - tear down and rebuild
Year 2 - growing pains, rookies...
Year 3 - #BetterBeNoExcuses

We have 12th and 19th in the 1st Round (that Mayock magic) plus $70M+ cap space + no Nevada state tax...

Wishlist: WR1 + 3 down LB.

 

DB, OL, too. Hoping those are our first four picks.

 

Bell played terribly for a terrible team.

 

Here comes the positional stuff...

QUARTERBACK (13/15)* B+
Derek Carr has notched the second most losses by a QB in his first six seasons. This stat is making the rounds. He's also won the 39th most games in his first six year, which isn't record-setting, but it's worth noting. He has two 7-9 seasons and one 12-win seasons under his belt. As Carr approaches many Raiders' passing records, it likely takes something special to dislodge him from the starting spot.

Perhaps surprisingly, Carr set career bests in completions, completion percentage, yards, yard per attempt, passer rating, QBR, adjusted net yards per attempt, and he added three more game-winning drives and two more 4th quarter comebacks. Carr scored his second and third rushing TD of his career, ran the ball more than he had either of the last two seasons, and posted his most rushing yards since 2015. Only four QBs have thrown for more yards through their first six seasons - Peyton Manning, Marino, Luck, and Matt Ryan. Only six have thrown for more TDs to start their careers.

Besides Carr, the Raiders have Mike Glennon and DeShone Kizer on roster. Peterman can return from IR for next season, but he’s not currently under contract. The Raiders could enter camp with Carr, Kizer, and any third QB and be in very good shape.


On the Roster (2019)
Derek Carr, DeShone Kizer, Mike Glennon, Nathan Peterman**(IR)

Under Contract (2020+)
Derek Carr, DeShone Kizer

Positional Strength
B+: Solid starter, two backups with NFL starting experience.

Recommendation
Derek Carr will lead this team into Las Vegas. If Oakland finds a QB prospect they like after the third round, they could pick up a young, promising arm. I would roll with Carr and Kizer as the top two QBs and find some third option that I think is either a better prospect than Kizer or a better but cheaper option than Glennon would likely be.

*This is the positional strength indicator, based on players under contract for 2019.
**Practice Squad

 

Raiders sign the following to Reserve/Futures deals. Someone in the analytics department is doing work. Here are the players with their NFL biometrics comparables.

WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams / Keon Hatcher
--They love these big, not especially fast WRs

DE Ade Aruna / Nick Perry (starter)
DE Kendall Donnerson / Khalil Mack (DPOY)
--Both have exceptional physical profiles

DB Jordan Brown / Vernon Hargreaves (starter)
--They've rotated through so many DBs this season

OG Kyle Kalis / Erik Magnuson
C Erik Magnuson / Oday Aboushi
--When you grab a guy and a guy who's like that guy, there's something in the profile you like. These guys played next to one another at Michigan.

 

This is pretty wild - statistical look at the Raiders' "penalty problem."
https://www.raidersbeat.com/12673-2/

 

Sacks, Hits, Pressures, and Dollars - Oakland's Pass Rush since 2016

In 2016, the Raiders totaled 25 sacks. 11 of them came from Khalil Mack and 7 from Bruce Irvin. They also rolled up 80 QB Hits, with 26 from Mack, 25 from Irvin, and 10 from Jihad Ward. That's 105 Pressures. Those players' combined salaries was 12.5m from Irvin, 5.1m from Mack, and 1m from Ward - 18.6m total.

In 2017, the sacks were up - to 31 - but the QB Hits were down to 73. That's 104 pressures. Mack led the way with 10.5 sacks, while Irvin had 8, and Denico Autry had 5. Mack's 22 QB Hits paced the team, too, with Irvin's 12 just ahead of Autry and Mario Edwards at 9 each. Those top three players' salaries - Mack, Irvin, and Autry - were 14.7m. Again, a relative bargain. Indeed, they got at least as good production from less money up top.

In 2018, the Raiders decided they could do better with the picks they'd gain from dealing Mack and keeping less money committed in salaries. This led to a dreadful 13 sacks and 48 pressures. The sacks came from DT Maurice Hurst (4), Irvin (3), SS Karl Joseph (2), Clinton McDonald (2), Nick Morrow (1), and Arden Key (1). Half these dudes aren't even pass rushers. Key paced the team with 11 QB Hits, while Irvin had 5 and Frostee Rucker added 4. The 61 pressures came with a top-end cost of just 11m (Irvin - 8.3, McDonald 1.9, and Key 700k). So, they got what they wanted in the short term - paying less and stockpiling picks. But the performance was dreadful. Meanwhile, Mack earned more than those three players combined - 13.8m in 2018.

2019 saw the Raiders get back to about where they were with Mack - 32 sacks and 64 QB Hits for a total of 96 pressures. Rookie Maxx Crosby led the way with 10 sacks, followed by Benson Mayowa with 7, Clelin Ferrell with 4.5, and Mo Hurst with 3.5. Those four were at the top of the QB Hits, too, with 14, 10, 8, and 8, respectively. Ferrell made 5.7m in 2019, Mayowa earned 1.7m, Hurst and Crosby both made under 700k. That means the "top heavy" rushers earned only about 9m. And that's for four of them.

Year / Sacks / Hits / Pressures / Cash
2016 / 25 / 80 / 105 / 18.6m
2017 / 31 / 73 / 104 / 14.7m
2018 / 13 / 48 / 61 / 13.8m
2019 / 32 / 64 / 96 / 9m