2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

Quick look at Oakland's LB Corps
sorted by Snap-Count (defensive snaps / special teams snaps)

Tahir Whitehead (824/59)
Whitehead is a good dude, and he has held down the MLB spot through some tough times, but he's not a guy who can be on the field on third downs, and, frankly, he's not worth the salary. He has surrendered a near perfect QB Passer Rating two years in a row when targeted (150+ in both seasons). Yikes! He has posted back-to-back sub 57 rating seasons, according to PFF (53.2 this year). Time to restructure or move on.

Nicholas Morrow (676/150)
Morrow showed promise last season, but he hasn't delivered this year. His PFF grade has fallen to 46.3. He's second on the team in tackles, but he hasn't done very much. On a bargain deal, his market value will determine his status for next season. He'll be a RFA.

Vontaze Burfict (191/17)
Lots of people doubted Burfict and for good reason. While his play was above average (62.2 PFF rating), he was quickly suspended for the season. He'll be 29 next season, which isn't especially old. He may even end up returning on another reasonable deal.

Will Compton (67/87)
Compton's main contributions have been on special teams, but he's been adequate when called upon (60 PFF rating). He's a cheap, reliable special teamer who can contribute. Those players are necessary on a good roster.

Marquel Lee (51/59)
Lee has been injured all season. He has played in only four games, starting three, but he has really played starter snaps in only one game. He brings a 52.3 rating into his fifth game, after posting a 62.5 last season. He's under contract for next season, and he'll rightfully be back. A healthy Lee is a LB who doesn't hurt the squad.

Kyle Wilber (43/258)
Wilber's a special teamer who also plays LB. His 65.8 PFF grade last season was second best at the position, but he has tumbled to 48.0 this season in limited snaps. Like Compton, if he's cheap and healthy, he'll find a roster spot.

Te'Von Coney (0/0) - Practice Squad
Coney is back on the practice squad. He's earning $8k a week right now. It's hard to imagine the Raiders can't get Whitehead-quality production on first and second down from Coney at a fraction of the price.

What's especially clear is that the Raiders have no franchise player at LB. Despite Guenther's claims that he can develop LBs, we haven't seen it in two seasons here. He has never in his career put a LB in the Pro Bowl. Not sure why he should be trusted to do the job here. But regardless of whether Guenther returns, the Raiders must add a top-flight LB for coverage or two adequate LBs for three downs.

 

I had high hopes for Brandon Marshall but unfortunately his injury derailed a comeback...

It's months away but I am looking forward to what Mayock can conjure up during the draft.

 

I was surprised about Marshall, too. I thought that on paper he was our best LB.

 

Kolton Miller was bad. The offensive line was bad. Four sacks, a few stuffs on runs.

Richard - made a great pickup on a blitz. But then he dropped a pass for a sure first down on a third and eight. It forced a FG before the half. Would have been a first and goal with 2:24 left in the half. Oakland ended up kicking two FGs in that last 2:24. If they had scored only 1 TD, that would have been 20-17 at the game's end (and a FG from Carlson would have made it only a tie, not a loss).

How it all went wrong...

Second Half
Fourth and 1, Oakland is called for an illegal participation on D. WTF?!?

Same drive: 3rd and 11 - sideline pass for first.
Same drive: 3rd and 9 in the red zone: Guenther dials up a blitz, Dion Jordan shuts it down. Forces a FG. Oakland up 10, 15:00 to go. With the ball.

2nd down: looks like Oakland has a WR screen called for Zay Jones. Only two pass options. Jones isn't open. Carr throws to Richard for a loss. Third and thirteen, Waller and Richard have to double Ngakoue - and they can't get it done. Carr sacked.

Good punt flips the field. Jags have it on their own 21 with 11:09 to go, down 10. I believe Oakland had a 92.1% chance of winning at that point (Win Probability Calculator)

Play 1: Jacksonville goes playaction, hits TE for a big gain with Will Compton in coverage.

Play 2: Ferrell blows up a run in the backfield.

Play 4: third and eight. Curtis Riley comes on a blitz, ends up offsides, giving the Jags a third and short. I don't mind the aggressiveness, I guess. But that sets up...

Play 6: 4th and 1. Jags' win probability at 2.3%! Riley sicks Fournette in the backfield, but he's all alone. Fournette spins off and gets the first down (maybe).

Play 7: Mullen is called for a PI, but I don't know. That seems awful.

Play 9: 2nd and 10, at Oakland 37. 7:14 left. PJ Hall whiffs on a clear sack opportunity. Minshew makes a big throw for a first.

Play 11: 2nd and 10 again. Minshew escapes the pocket, Hall can't catch him, and Minshew sets up the Jags for a first and 10 in the red zone.

Play 13: 2nd and 2 at the 6. 5:21 left. Minshew makes a great throw to beat Lawson's coverage. Touchdown.

Oakland takes over on their own 30, up 3, 5:10 left. 80.2% win probability.

Play 1: Jacobs does what they brought him in for. Drags a defender for nine or ten.

Skip ahead to 2nd and 6, Oakland at their own 47, 3:04 left. They're running clock and moving. 78.4% chance of winning this one. Jacobs shreds through some tackles for a big first down. Let's pause.

Jacobs just puts the win probability up to 84.81%.

It's now 2nd and 9 on the Jags' 43. Carr runs a read option for a first down, slides down in bounds after picking up the first. There's 2:05 left. Except the refs ruled he didn't give himself up inbounds, so the clock didn't run, they didn't reach the 2:00 warning, and Carr earned a delay of game.

Williams drops a pass on third and 11 after two Jacobs runs and the penalty. And that's that. I'm almost sure that was Whitehead's coverage assignment who caught the first down pass to put Jacksonville in the red zone.

That penalty by Dion Jordan was insanely stupid.

 

Raiders need to win out and Steelers can't win another game. Honestly, it's time to look at Kizer.

I don't think Carr is the problem, but he's also not a playmaker. The problem here is the defense and no WR.

 

See if he can be the dual threat quarterback that can be more dynamic. We had a stud wide-out until he went bat crazy on us.

 

Let's talk about Carlson quick.

Total: the total number of points earned out of those attempted (FGs + PAT)
Easy: PAT + FGs under 40
Med: FGs 40-49
Hard: 50+ FGs

Carlson Career
Total: 83%
Easy: 95%
Med: 67%
Hard: 60%

League Totals
Total: 3070/3631 (85%)
Easy: 2225/2386 (93%)
Med: 600/861 (70%)
Hard: 210/369 (57%)

So, Carlson is right around league average for a kicker. Worth keeping this in mind.

 

Hudson and Brown are in the Pro Bowl. Waller, Jacobs, and Ingold are alternates.

 

That’s a UDFA rookie as a Pro Bowl alternate. Not bad.

 

Here's another play the refs blew.

Reddit Link

Would have set up a fourth and four for Jacksonville instead of giving them a first down. That's huge.

 

Defensive Interior

Maurice Hurst leads the unit with 6 QB hits, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD, and 2 FR. He has started 2 games and has appeared in all 14. There were rumors of underperformance, especially early, but he has been solid. He has the highest PFF grade among the unit. At 71.9, it's just a hair below his 72.4 from last season. He should be able to match or exceed every stat from last season with the possible exception of tackles.

PJ Hall has started 12 of 14 games, has 2 QB hits, 1.5 sacks, and 5 TFL. He has bested nearly every stat from last season, and he's showing a nice trajectory to his early career. His PFF grade has jumped from 65.9 to 70.9.

Johnathan Hankins leads the group with 7 TFL, and he hadds 5 QB Hits, 1 sack, and 1 PD. He has started all 14 games. This seems to be a trend: Hankins may be having a better season than last year. He has more passes defended, more sacks, more tackles, more tackles for loss, and more QB hits. He's been a great add for the Raiders. He's at a 67.5 after posting a 66.5 last season.

Olsen Pierre hasn't played a snap for Oakland.

 

Taking a look at Edge Players

Arden Key's production wasn't much different from his rookie season; he has dealt with injuries, and he wasn't producing at a high level. He appeared in 50% of Oakland's snaps in only one game. But he had rolled up a sack in back-to-back games before being shut down for the season. On a rookie contract, he'll be back.

Benson Mayowa has a knack for getting to the QB. He has 19 QB Hits over the past two seasons, and he has added 11 sacks in that span (to lead the Raiders). Along with his 16 tackles for loss and 4 forced fumbles, he has been something of a disruptive force for the Oakland D. His contract is up after this season, and given how his snaps have been limited, it would be a surprise if he returns. His 59.8 PFF grade is not especially impressive.

Dion Jordan has been one of the more successful in-season finds for the Raiders. His 62.7 PFF grade is actually second best for the unit. He has also contributed in the counting stats: 2 QB hits, 2 sacks, a pass defended, a tackle for loss. He's probably a cheaper option than Mayowa for similar production.

Josh Mauro was brought in for run defense. After starting and playing roughly 50% of the snaps over his first seven games, he has gone to the bench. His overall contributions have been minimal - 16 stops, 2 tackles for loss, 1 pass defended, and no pressure on the QB. His 52.7 PFF grade suggests he's not doing much otherwise. He probably won't be back.

Oakland found a gem in Maxx Crosby. His 13 QB hits, 14 TFL, 8.5 sacks, 3 PD, and 3 FF make him a strong candidate for the team's DPOY and possibly best value in the draft. His 64.6 grade is better than every other Edge player on roster.

Clelin Ferrell has had a strange season. Much maligned early on in the season (including by me), he has steadily climbed the PFF rankings, while playing generally fewer snaps. Outside his 5 passes defended (most or all batted balls), the numbers won't impress for a top pick. But he has started 13 games, has 7 QB hits, 3.5 sacks, and 5 TFL. His 60.8 grade on PFF is better than Key's, Mayowa's, and Mauro's, but it trail's Jordan and Crosby.

Kendall Donnerson is on the practice squad after being bounced on and off Green Bay's active roster, practice squad, and IR. He has a monster physical profile - with a 4.50 40 and a 96th and 97th percentile Speed and Burst scores. Player Profiler lists his closest physical comparison as Khalil Mack. Just 23 years old, he's a great candidate to keep around and give a look for next year.

 

The Offensive Line
xRodney Hudson
Hudson's overall grade is down a bit, but at 70.4 and being perhaps the best pass blocking Center in the league, he'll be back. Only Kolton Miller was on the field for more snaps along the line.

xTrent Brown*
When you spend huge money, you need a huge return. Brown posts a 69.1 PFF grade, goes to the Pro Bowl, but ends up on IR. Brown struggled through nagging injuries for 583 snaps.

xKolton Miller
This is the player the Raiders hoped they were taking. He's not quite at Pro Bowl level yet, but he's not far off. His 63.5 PFF grade is a 15-point improvement over last season. He has to be a candidat for Raiders' MIP (Waller's the obvious choice though). He has not missed a snap.

xRichie Incognito
Who knew that at age 36, Incognito would be the best offensive lineman for the Raiders? Aside from some penalties, he was incredibly good. Great payoff on that risk. He ends the season on IR, and he'll be 37, but the odds are he'll be in camp.

xDenzelle Good
Good, 28, has increased his PFF grade from 52.6 last season to 58.0 this season. He has played in 202 offensive snaps and 55 special teams plays.

xGabe Jackson
After posting a 69.1 grade last year, he's down to 62.3 this season, and he has often looked to be not fully recovered. He'll be 29, so he's not too old, but injuries may have taken their toll on him. Jackson's 573 snaps are fifth most on the OL to this point. He has three years remaining on his contract, but he has little dead money, so the Raiders will likely evaluate his health and their finances before making a decision.

xAndre James
James has the lowest positional grade for an offensive lineman at 24.1. He's just 22, and he has totaled 116 offensive and 24 special teams snaps. It's a small sample size. He's under contract for two more seasons before the Raiders can make him an RFA. He's worth watching to finish out the season.

xBrandon Parker
Unlike Miller, Parker did not make the sophomore leap. His grade plummeted from bad (46.9) to worse (38.8). Parker's done this in 173 snaps.

xDavid Sharpe
Sharpe's 55.2 last season wasn't good, but he's up to a 63.8, which is higher than Jackson's and Miller's, but he's done it in 146 snaps.

xJordan Devey*
Devey will be 32, was on IR, and posted a 53.2 grade. He'd be back only on a bargain contract. His 228 snaps are sixth most on the line to this point.

xCameron Hunt*
Hunt will be 26, didn't earn a score this season, and didn't seem to offer much.

xKyle Kalis**
Kalis will be 27. He's on the practice squad.

xErik Magnuson**
Magnuson will be 26. He's on the practice squad.

 

Raiders 20
Chargers 26

Bummer. No Jacobs. No Incognito. No Brown. If ever there were a game for Carr to step up, this is it (I mean, any of the last three weeks, it would have been nice to see him put the team on his back). I'd actually prefer to see a bit of Kizer.

Anyway, the Raiders can keep their playoff hopes alive if...
Oakland wins
Pittsburgh loses...to the Jets (Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite)
Tennessee loses...to New Orleans (NO is 2.5-point favorites, Henry is out)
Cleveland loses...to Baltimore (This doesn't have to happen, btw) (Baltimore is favored by 10)

If Oakland wins and those three teams lose, here are the seedings:
6. Steelers (8-7) vs. Ravens in week 17
7. Tennessee (8-7) vs. Texans in week 17
8. Oakland (7-8) vs. Denver in week 17
9. Cleveland (6-9)*Eliminated

Sucks, because this is all possible but incredibly unlikely. And to think the Raiders controlled their own destiny and dropped the ball in three straight weeks.

 

Actually, something else has to happen...so the playoff picture is bleak.

 

Bright side: Oakland has five picks in the top 90 in the upcoming draft.

 

Oh s***! At the half, Oakland is up 7. And all the other dominoes have fallen properly. An Oakland win keeps them in the playoff hunt.

 

Offense was stale there for a bit, but they got it going. Nine minute drive put them up 14, and then the D just surrenders a TD. 21-14.

 

Let's go, Raiders. One quarter to finish strong.