2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

Pro Football Focus does a lot of advanced metrics and player ranking. They came out with an All-Division Team for each division. Raiders on 2014's All-AFC West Team:

Donald Penn OT
Khalil Mack LB
Sebastian Janikowski K

And Advanced Football Analytics has good position rankings.
Looking at potential FA/Waivers:

1. Running Back
DMC was dead last on Oakland in terms of Win Probability Added among RBs. His -0.16 estimated points added per play was third worst, behind Olawale (who should be cut), MJD (who should be cut).
Recommendations: Get DMC, MJD out of there, and bring back Olawale only as a fourth options - he had 7 touches last year. No more.

2. Receiver
Oakland has Vincent Brown, Brice Butler, Andre Holmes, Denarius Moore, Rod Streater, and Kenbrell Thompkins under contract for 2015. They have invited Jeremy Gallon and Seth Roberts to camp.

The clearest problem spot for Oakland last year was Denarius Moore -.36 WPA and -.24 EPA/P. Okland actually had a few solid WR performers: Andre Holmes was +.97/+0.16, Jones -.01/+0.13, Brice Butler +.13/+0.25, and Rod Streater +.19/+.31. If Streater were to stay healthy, that returning foursome wouldn't be a bad group - even if Oakland is still in need of another weapon.
Recommendations: If we can move Moore, do it.

3. Tight End
We're operating with Ausberry, Leonhardt, and Rivera under contract. Kasa and Simonson are invited. Ausberry hasn't played in the past two seasons, basically. Rivera's +.14/+.01 are not hurting the team. Leonhardt actually showed good numbers: +.03/+.18.
Recommendation: If Ausberry is healthy, he might still be a quality TE. His salary is so small it's not worth cutting him in all likelihood.

DEFENSE
1. DT
Oakland's top performers were Smith +.41/+1.18 (EPA/G), Ellis +.20/+0.63, Sims +.15/+1.01, and Wilson +.14/+.81. Even Lumpkin and McGee added decent numbers. All but Lumpkin are under contract, with Smith's $2.25M being the most.
Recommend: We need a DT upgrade.

2. DE
Justin Tuck led the way by far +1.15/+3.03. After that, Wilson was good +.16/+1.25, and no one was bad. Mayowa +.12/+.68 (cheap) and Autry +.04/+.66 (not under contract) could return. LaMarr Woodley is the best candidate for release - with $2.5M in salaries, Woodson's +.07/+.46 are not bad, but he managed only five games and was arguably outplayed by Wilson and Mayowa.
Recommend: If we lose Woodley, we need to make some acquisitions along the D-line. There are top flight DEs available in FA.

3. LB
Sio Moore +1.14/+3.35 and Khalil Mack +.97/+2.80 were beasts. Burris was very solid, too +.65/+1.69. Ray Ray Armstrong wasn't bad +.23/+1.52, and Maiva and Filimoeatu weren't terrible.
Recommend: Nick Roach is a prime candidate for cut; his $2.85M salary is the largest among Oakland LBs, and he didn't play last season. His injury concerns might end his career.

4. CBs
Carrie +.65/+2.34, Hayden +.47/+2.11, Rogers +.36/+1.69, Brown +.35/+.84, and McGill +.23/1.60 were top. Among them, brown was the highest paid at $1.4M. Rogers checked in at $1.05M; everyone else was at 700k or less. Rogers and Brown will head to Free Agency.
Recommend: Oakland's top two CBs in terms of statistics return, but CB is a position ravaged by injuries. Carrie played 12 games, but Hayden missed 7 in a brief, injury-filled career. Letting Rogers and Brown go is the right move, but Oakland now desperately needs a CB.

5. S
Woodson +1.05/+2.66 is back, but he is aging and slipped during the second half of the season. Ross +.37/+1.63 was the other player who saw heavy time at S. Branch, Asante, and Young played 3, 4, and 5 games, respectively. Among them, Branch was the best statistically. Asante is not currently under contract.
Recommend: Letting Branch go was the right move. His $3M contract is tough to justify after two seasons cut short. Oakland now needs another S, but they might find in-house help from Jonathan Dowling.

QUICK RECAP
DE: Justin Tuck was 13th among DEs in Win Probability Added and 7th in EPA/Game. FA Pierre-Paul was 2nd (behind Watt)

DT: No Oakland player was in the top 40. FA Suh was 2nd in the NFL. FA Knighton, who has played with Jack Del Rio for six season, posted +.75 WPA and +1.54 EPA/G. We should look at Knighton good and hard.

LB: Sio Moore was 33rd and 15th, respectively. Mack was top 40 in EPA/G.

CB: Only Charles Woodson made the list, at 16th.

S: No Oakland S made the list. FA Kendrick Lewis was #2 in the NFL.

 

So, I'll put in my hopes that Oakland is able to add the following FAs:

DT Terrance Knighton
DE Jason Pierre-Paul

 

Bush is electric in open space and can take it to the house. The problem is that he believes he's an every down back, worth tons of paper and cannot stay healthy to justify it. He'll just take carries away from young LaTavius. Your tale of the tape says it...bring back DMC. The poor player has had to deal with different OC's every year, unsettled run-blocking schemes and a less than capable O-line.

 

At S...poach Rahim Moore from Denver too. LB Brandon Spikes... Give AJ Hawk a look.

 

JPP was franchised.

 

Rumor has it Raiders will spend big on Randall Cobb.

 

Risky play. I like him, he's got a lot of talent, but he's smaller and has had a couple injuries already. Still it'd be a solid move for the Raiders who really need talent on the perimeter.

 

MJD has retired. This will save Oakland some cap space.

Woodley has been released.

 

Suh supposedly a "done deal" to the Fins but he'll meet with The S&B next week. Talented but... I just don't know about overpaying for players. Suh is looking for Watt type of contract...and then some. I'd like to see the organization build the team by adding two for the price of one. Upgrade other positions or add depth.

 

After MJD and Woodley's exodus, Oakland has the most cap space in the NFL.

 

Roach was released.

 

Usama Young was released, too.

 

Raiders making some moves:
Extended 2nd round tender to Streater (pay 2.356M).
Extended original round tender to Holmes (pay 1.542M).

I think someone will take Holmes, honestly. Head scratcher; I think he's our best talent at WR.

 

If Streater signs and they end up with another wide-out or two via the draft and free agency, Holmes is expendable. There are other needs on the squad to shore up.

 

FA Updates

 

Pro Football Talk's Positions of Need
Big Need:
MLB

Needs:
WR
TE
C
RG
LS

Backup Needs:
RT
QB
RB
WR
DT
DE
FS

They have a cumulative team rating of -23.5, where 0.0 is average.
-3.5 among offensive starters
-1.5 among defensive starters

I'll keep updating these numbers to see what they're doing.

 

One of Oakland's six biggest needs has been addressed.
Raiders make first signing with Rodney Hudson. Five years, $44.5M.

Hudson was ranked the top Center in the AFC West last year and was the #3 overall Center in the NFL statistically. He was ranked #14 on Pro Football Focus's list of FAs. I don't know where Hudson will officially be ranked, but he was "average" going into last season, and he might be "good" now. At any rate, that increases Oakland's offensive rating from -3.5 to either -2.5 or -1.5. So that's good news.