2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

I think we have a bunch of WRs who have borderline WR3 potential, but they're all inconsistent. Hoping we get to see more time with some of them in preseason.

Lots of teams make moves after the first preseason game. I'm still waiting to hear if anything has changed with the roster.

 

Brown, Williams, Renfrow I believe are locks... I like JJ Nelson but I am intrigued by Ateman and Doss who would be great end zone targets because of their big frames.

 

Quick Hits
IN: Hamp Cheevers, CB
OUT: DJ Killings (IR)

Cheevers is a small dude (5'9" 169), but he has solid metrics outside his low speed to size ratio. Comparison is Robert Nelson, who has stuck in the NFL but hasn't made much impact.

 

Raiders - Week 2

WR
Tyrell Williams with a great catch.
Ryan Grant with a hunger for the endzone.
Nothing to complain about on Gafford's TD. Nice speed.
Renfrow doing what he does - making catches in traffic. No YAC though.
Ateman looked a little more fluid today than he did last season.
Hatcher had a big third down catch. Showed good strength after the catch, too.
Doss had a nice leaping catch. Another nice catch in traffic. He looks really unathletic laterally, but he has great size. Might benefit from working on blocking and seeing about TE sets.
Pierson-El had a quiet return night, but he's worth keeping an eye on because he's basically Harris's only competition on returns. He had a nice catch and showed good strength on the subsequent run. He had a really nice grab on an early fourth quarter pass.
? - someone had a nice comeback catch about halfway through the fourth. Couldn't see who it was.
--There will be some TOUGH decisions here. AB, Williams are locks. I think Renfrow is the next most obvious. After that, it's Harris or Pierson-El for returns (probably Harris).

OL
Uh oh. Brandon Parker whiffed on a block that got a run play stuffed.

RB
Josh Jacobs looked good in limited time. Speed and power and vision.
Washington has probably cemented his role on the team. He's having a fanastic preseason.
Mack Brown showed good vision and acceleration.
I think Butler runs really hard, and he has been effective.

TE
We saw Waller make a nice catch out in the flat. He looks like a matchup problem - DBs too small and LBs will struggle to keep up with him.
Carrier's TD catch shows what he offers - not just a blocker.
Willson didn't look great blocking, and he missed a block on a Peterman run. Not a good showing. He did drive a DB(? #47) into the endzone on Brown's TD run though. He was a guy I thought would make it, but now I'm wondering if he gets cut.

D-Front
Key gets pressure early, nearly picks up a sack. Was right there on the safety, too. Key had another "near" play - almost stripped Hundley.
Hurst's recognition on the RB screen was super fast. Beautiful. Getting pressure early in the third.
Mayowa nearly had a sack. Good closing speed.
Ferrell has good speed and doesn't give up on plays.
Quinton Bell is raw - gave up the edge on a big run play. He's fast, but he's slow to react. Needs seasoning.

LB
Burfict closed quickly on the RB screen.
Brandon Marshall plays fast. He missed a tackle on a QB run though - big gain.
Whitehead misread a RB as a blocker and then got burned for a long first down pass.
Farmer missed a tackle.

DB
Joyner with a sack and safety. Had a great quote after the game. I'll see if I can find it.
Nick Nelson got burned for a TD.
Harris was out of position on the TD against Nelson, too. Looked like he was supposed to help, but he was way behind. He did break up a pass in the endzone later. He misread a read option and gave up a huge run. Yikes.
Keisean Nixon had good coverage on a pass at the goal line.
Jordan Richards took a terrible angle and gave up a huge run in the fourth.
Joshua Holsey was just signed - and he was burned for a TD. Wasn't bad coverage, I guess, but he turned too late and gave up the TD.
Dallin Leavitt didn't help himself either.

FROM PFF
Hankins, Mayowa, and Hurst all scored well. Ethan Westbrooks (who looked gased late in the game) did well, too, at least against the run.

The secondary received poor grades, and Nevin Lawson was singled out for being atrocious.

 

- still tight between Glennon and Peterman. I'd prefer the former since he is a better passer that can stretch the D.
- Waller makes me think of Rickey Dudley. Must be the number.
- Grant or Nelson? Grant can make yards after the catch buy Nelson has the edge in speed.
- a penalty on a PAT had Gruden going absolutely bonkers. Sight of the night.
- Washington catching passes makes me feel better having him on the team.
- a Doug Martin sighting...
- I like Carrier. Moreau is Lee without the nasty.

 

Hey what brings you here...? Like the vid.

 

Quinton Bell
-Read a RB screen beatifully and then jogged after the play and never made an ipact.

I think Pierson-El has shown enough in the receiving and return game to make the Raiders think long and hard about Harris.

Nick Nelson - YIKES. This was a dreadful performance. Tough catch on an early coverage and then he was just torched twice.

Brandon Parker looked good in pass protection.

PJ Hall got disruptive in the second half.

Doss's best showing.

Hatcher's not making the roster.

Koa Farmar made a big hit after good coverage on the penultimate play.

Some tough decisions looming.

 

Raiders drop 13 players:

I had these players classified this way:
Lock: x
Good bet: x
Likely: x
Uncertain: xx
Unlikely: x
Gone: xx
Never factored in: xxxxx

So, 3 of the 13 were guys I thought would be on the roster. Just goes to show...

OUT: Mack Brown RB
-No surprise.

OUT: Luke Willson TE
OUT: Brandon Barnes TE
-I had Willson as a good bet. In fact, I had him and Moreau as the two most likely to make the team - prior to the Waller narrative. Barnes never factored in.

OUT: Cameron Hunt OL
-Never factored in.

OUT: Eddie Vanderoes DT
-I had "uncertain." He was solid in 2017, and he hasn't been healthy since. Concussion concerns did not help his case this preseason.

OUT: Gabe Wright DL
-I had him as unlikely to make the roster. No surprises.

OUT: Alex Barrett DE
-I had Barrett as "gone." He doesn't seem to have the physical profile to make it.

OUT: James Cowser DE
-I had Cowser as uncertain. I think this was the right move.

OUT: Brandon Marshall LB
-I didn't know he was dealing with rehab, and I had him as a lock - and Oakland's best LB. This hurts because they are not a good unit, and they struggle to cover.

OUT: Bryson Allen-Williams LB
-Never factored in.

OUT: Joshua Holsey CB
-Never factored in.

OUT: Jordan Richards S
-I had him as likely. His physical profile and past performance suggest he belongs in the NFL - as a backup.

OUT: Makinton Dorleant DB
-I had him as "gone." Hasn't made an impact in three seasons.

 

In three years in Miami, Alonso has piled up counting stats - 364 tackles (227 solo), 14 QB hits, 14 TFL, 6 forced fumbles, 5 fumble recoveries, and 5 INTs. His 22 AV in that time is solid.

A deeper dive into the metrics reveals a 49.7 grade last year, which is pretty damn atrocious. His physical profile is quite bad, too.

I don't know the guy, but I'm hoping the Raiders don't give up much for him.

 

OUT: Keith Smith FB
-I had Smith and Ingold both 50/50. Ingold is the best FB to enter the league this season, and he could be one of the five best in the last five years. Smith is a victim of a large salary and a sneaky pickup by Oakland.

OUT: Marcell Ateman WR
-I had him as unlikely to make the roster. He doesn't have the hands to make it work without the speed.

OUT: Keon Hatcher WR
-I had him as unlikely to make the roster. He's a lot like Ateman - good size, so-so speed, little else.

OUT: Keelan Doss WR
-I had him as unlikely. Never quite saw it with him, but he had a strong show in college and was good against third-stringers in preseason.

OUT: Jason Cabinda LB
-Oakland's best-rated LB last season and a special teams contributor. I'm not sure why he's gone, to be honest. This one is a moderate surprise.

OUT: Anthony Rush DT
-Never factored in.

Update:
I had these players classified this way:
Lock: x
Good bet: x
Likely: xx
50/50: x
Uncertain: xx
Unlikely: xxxx
Gone: xx
Never factored in: xxxxxx

4 of the 19 players so far cut have been surprising to me.

 

More reactions tomorrow. Not many big surprises.

 

Positional review. I list in parentheses how I had the player rated with respect to the roster.

QUARTERBACK
IN: Carr (lock), Glennon (lock), Peterman (practice squad)
-I don't get it either, but here's an attempt to understand it. Peterman's mobility makes him a better candidate, longterm, than Glennon.

RUNNINGBACK
IN: Jacobs (lock), Richard (lock), Ingold (50/50), Washington (unlikely)
-Let's put aside injuries to Crowell and Martin. The Raiders have kept the three best players in Jacobs, Richard, and Ingold. Washington makes sense now, given how Gruden likes his RBs to receive.

WIDE RECEIVER
IN: Brown (lock), Williams (lock), Grant (good bet), Renfrow (good chance), Nelson (unlikely), Harris (likely).
-Nelson is the only surprise from my point of view, but no one who was cut had a better chance, in my view. They were all unlikely.

OUT: Rico Gafford WR
OUT: De'Mornay Pierson-El WR
-Hard to even place a position on Gafford. Hard worker, but this isn't his time. Pierson-El is a guy I'd keep my eyes on. He's a lot like Harris. Maybe a better receiver, but he's not quite as good on returns.

TIGHT END
IN: Moreau (good bet), Waller (50/50), Carrier (good bet)
OUT: Paul Butler TE (practice squad)

OFFENSIVE LINE
IN: Hudson (lock), Jackson (lock) Brown (lock), Miller (lock), Good (lock), Parker (lock), Sharpe (likely), Devey (likely), James (unlikely), Cooper (didn't rate)
-I didn't have a ranking on Cooper, but his 6 AV in 2017 and 5 AV in 2015 are solid. He's had injury problems. He's a good add, I suppose. James is the only player I had as unlikely, and I don't get why he's on roster.

IR/Suspension: Incognito (likely)
OUT: Tyler Roemer OT (unlikely)
OUT: Justin Murray OT (50/50)
--This is the only mild surprise.
OUT: Denver Kirkland OL (unlikely)
OUT: Lester Cotton OG (unlikely)

DEFENSIVE LINE
IN: Ferrell (lock), Mayowa (lock), Key (lock), Crosby (lock), Mauro (likely), Liuget (didn't rate), Hall (lock), Hurst (lock), Hankins (lock)
-Other than Liuget, who joined too late for me to rate in the initial batch, I saw all of these dudes as locks.

OUT: Ethan Westbrooks DE (didn't rate)
OUT: Jelly - DT (near lock)
OUT: Quinton Bell DE (50/50)
-Jelly's career is in jeopardy. I put him as a near lock and wrote about the end of careers for players like him once injuries hit. This is basically two years in a row lost if someone else doesn't pick him up. Sad end.

LINEBACKER
IN: Burfict (likely), Whitehead (lock), Lee (likely), Morrow (likely)
-No surprises here (except for Marshall, in the last batch), but only four?

OUT: Te'von Coney LB (likely)
OUT: Koa Farmer LB (unlikely)
OUT: Kyle Wilber LB (50/50)
-A little surprised by both Wilber and Coney, who both can play LB and contribute on special teams. I imagine Coney will be back on practice squad, possibly Farmer, too.

CORNERBACK
IN: Conley (lock), Worley (near lock), Joyner (lock), Mullen (lock), Nixon (unlikely), Johnson (lock)
OUT: Dylan Mabin CB (likely gone)
OUT: Nick Nelson CB (near lock)

SAFETIES
IN: Abram (lock), Joseph (lock), Harris (lock), Riley (50/50), Leavitt (unlikely)
-Surprised by Leavitt, but I'm glad to see Riley on roster.

 

Players Rated..
Lock: 29
-Made it: 28
Percent: 97%

Near Lock/Good Bet/Good Chance: 20
-Made it: 13
Percent: 65%

50/50: 8
-Made it: 4
Percent: 50%

Practice Squad: 3
-Made it: 1
Percent: 33%

Unlikely: 17
-Made it: 5
Percent: 29%

Long Shot/Likely Gone: 3
-Made it: 0
Percent: 0%

Uncertain/Tough Call: 3
-Made it: 0
Percent: 0%

Gone: 2
-Made it: 0
Percent 0%

 

Some quick thoughts...

IN: DeShone Kizer QB
OUT: Josh Mauro DE
-Yikes! Mauro seemed like a solid fit. I love Kizer, as he's a Notre Dame guy, but here's some levity. He has average metrics, an atrocious QBR, atrocious Rating, an 0-15 record, and he has accounted for 31 Turnovers in 18 games. That's all the bad. Kizer may actually have the skillset Gruden wants from a QB, at least on the run/throw side. He has rushed for 25 yards per game and has 5 TDs. Those aren't good numbers, but they soften the blow and give the Raiders a different look with him at QB. I think the Raiders must be trading one of their backups - probably Glennon.

Practice Squad Update (Now/Later)
0 - not NFL material
1 - borderline roster spot
2 - contributor
3 - could become solid

IN: Eric Saubert TE 1/2
IN: Damarea Crockett RB 1/2
IN: Quinton Bell DE 0/3
IN: Anthony Rush DT 0/2
IN: Lester Cotton OG 0/2
IN: Rico Gafford WR 1/1
IN: Dylan Mabin CB 1/1
IN: Marcell Ateman WR 1/1
-Two spots remain. Wondering if Coney will be in that mix.

Doss / Ateman
I don't get the hype except Doss is a local guy. He could become a player who sticks on a roster, but he'd need a fantastic arsenal of weapons around him to get the job done consistently. Ateman isn't really NFL quality either, and I think he finds himself in the same situation. If his hands were better, we could talk.

 

I thought Doss did well for himself granted it was against second/third stringers. Good hands, smart instincts, ability to shield the defender away from the catch but no separating speed. He is a possession receiver in the ultimate sense but we have that in Renfrow for now.

I don't get the Kizer signing... I really don't. Yeah, one of them is gone not wearing #4.

 

Doss might make a roster and grab some passes, but he doesn’t seem a make or break kind of player. I get the concern though about dropping some player for a third or fourth QB.

 

Peterman and Isaiah Johnson to IR. Mauro and Wilber back. Not bad.

They also filled out their practice squad. Nick Nelson is back.

 

Raiders now - Positional Look
QB: 12/15 B
Carr gives the Raiders a solid starter, who has good weapons to work with at the WR spot. Glennon and Kizer give options the Raiders haven't had in years.

RB (22.5/30) C
Jacobs, Richard, Washington, and Ingold - a lot of pressure on young guys as two haven't played an NFL game and the other two have never been feature backs.

Receiver (26/37.5) D+
I really like AB and Williams as the top two guys. After that, you have limited tope-end Grant, KR Harris, injured and inefficient Nelson, and the rookie. Much of this season will depend upon Renfrow's ability to make people pay when they pay too much attention to the WR1 and WR2. A solid showing from Renfrow could catapult this unit up to the B range.

TE: F (9/30)
I like Moreau, and I like Waller the more I hear about his story (off drugs now), and Gruden knows how to get the most out of TEs, but this area is a massive question mark.

OL C- (54/75)
Massively improved unit with Hudson, Jackson and Miller returning to start. Add in Brown and eventually Incognito, and this unit pushes up to a B. Even the replacement parts are promising in Parker, Good, Devey, James, and Cooper.

DEFENSE
Defensive Interior D (20/30)
Hankins, Hurst, and Hall should be better than last season. Liuget is a promising option as well. The interior has improved.

EDGE F (15/30)
Let's start here. I have written extensively about this position. In brief, I think Key will be much improved, Ferrell will be solid against the run and so-so against the pass, and Mayowa will see a lot of reps. Mauro is in the mix, too. Crosby is an interesting option on third downs. The unit is improved over the end of last season, but that bar was LOW.

LINEBACKER C- (26.5/37.5)
Wilber wasn't as good as Cabinda, so I don't get it. Still, with Lee, Morrow, Whitehead, and Burfict, this unit could be a mess. Or it could be much improved. Hard to know what you're getting with Burfict and Whitehead, while Morrow and Lee are young and promising.

CB C- (26.5/37.5)
Conley, Worley, Joyner, Mullen, and Nixon are in. Johnson will be back after facial fracture. Lawson might be, too. Conley is the only true CB here that I trust. Joyner is solid but a nickel. Worley is young and promising. Mullen could be a revelation; we'll have to wait and see.

SAFETY B (25/30)
Abram, Joseph, Harris, Riley, and Leavitt all make the roster. Here's hoping Abram is a beast, and I really like Joseph, Riley, and Harris. This unit could surprise.

Biggest question marks - TE and Edge.