2019 Oakland Raiders Discussion

Things I talk about here:
1. Kolton Miller at 15
2. The 10 for the 15, 79, and 152
3. The 79

1.0 Kolton Miller at 15th pick
Round One
With the #10 pick, the Raiders traded back to #15. In the process, they received a third rounder (#79) and a fifth rounder (#152).

Selection: Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
-Miller is a good prospect with ridiculous upside. He was rated as PFF's 7th best OT in the draft (good, not great), but he was the top SPARQ athlete at the position (ludicrous). He's a mammoth, at 6'9", 309, and he runs a 4.95 40.

His performance has been mixed - with highs of 97.8 as a pass-blocker (best in the PAC-12), an 87.2 overall grade, and ranked as the 92nd best player in the draft by PFF.

He was the 17th best pass-blocker and 38th best run-blocker among college eligible tackles this season.

There are a few questions worth asking here in order to give a grade: what is the player's ceiling/floor, was the position one of need, and what was the pick value (e.g., would the player have been available later, would an available player have been a better fit)? In other words, some "reaches" can be justified.

Miller's Ratings:
NFL.com 5.80 "Chance to become NFL starter."
Drafttek had him 22nd best player.
Mayock had him 31st.
Bleacher Report had him at 6.99 (2nd rounder)
Draft Scout had him as third best OT and 29th best player overall.
--So let's just suppose that he almost certainly would not have been available at the Raiders' position in Round 2.

Comparisons
Eric Fisher, KC, a borderline Pro-Bowler, with an AV of at least 6 in each of his five seasons, topping out at 10 last season who has graded out as an average OT.

FLOOR/CEILING: So, for Miller, I'll say the floor is a rotation RT who isn't worse than Giacomini. For ceiling, I've seen "franchise LT." I don't know; maybe. If his biggest weaknesses are his size (but he's incredibly athletic) and his strength (he will get stronger), I kind of like his upside more than McGlinchey, who had a great chance to be decent and a good chance to be good but almost no chance to be great.

NEED: Was this a position of need? Absolutely. The Raiders need a Right Tackle now and a Left Tackle soon.

VALUE: What about the value question? Miller likely would not have been available in round 2 at 10, but he might have been available a few spots lower than 15. At some point, the gambler lose, and maybe the Raiders were happy with where they were at that point, not wanting to trade back again. Were there some better defensive players available? Probably, but I can't blame the Raiders for plugging in a possible day one starter on the OL for cheap.

OVERALL: So, overall, I like the pick, but I don't love it. I'd rate it a C+. In deeper drafts, Miller wouldn't have been picked this early.

2. The Trade
As in many sports, the decision-makers see the numbers side of things years behind where the numbers really are. The standard trade value sheet shows the 10th pick as worth 1300 points, while the 15th pick is worth 1050. The 79th pick is worth 195 points, and the 152nd pick is worth 30.6. Where did these values come from? Jimmy Johnson made them up in the 90s (yeah; made them up), but it doesn't matter. The bottom line is that by this chart, the Cardinals won the trade, getting 1300 value for 1275.6. It is important to note that this is an a priori chart - it's made not based on the empirical data it should be.

Using data from actual player performance, Kevin Meers at the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective calculated pick value a posteriori (after their selection and looking at what they did). The 10th pick is worth 299.1 points in this system. The 15th pick is worth 264.7 points. I'll pause here, as on the traditional system, the 15th pick is worth only 80% of the 10th pick, but in actual performance the 15th pick is worth 88% of the 10th pick. So, that trade in and of itself wasn't a big step backwards. Add in the 79th pick, at 113.5, and the Raiders have already won the trade. Then throw in #152 at 62.6 and the Raiders "robbed them of their gold," to the tune of giving up 299.1 to receive 440.8 in value, a return of 150% on their investment.

3. #79 Pick
Of course, it matters what the Raiders do with those picks. The Raiders traded for one year of Martavis Bryant at just under $2m. Bryant's upside is tremendous, his performance when on the field is good (he ranked ahead of Crabtree and way ahead of Cooper at 72.5, the 58th highest WR in the game). He has, however, struggled to stay on the field in four seasons. He has started only 16 games, and he has played in only 36, but he's coming off career bests with 15 games and 8 starts. He has posted an AV of 5, 7, and 6 in his three seasons he has played. He has averaged 42 receptions, 639 yards, and 6 TDs in those seasons.

In the past five drafts, there haven't been many WRs to give production like that:

2017
JuJu Smith-Schuster (2nd round)
Cooper Kupp (3rd round)

2016
Michael Thomas (2nd round)
Tyreek Hill (5th round)*

2015
Amari Cooper (1st round)
Tyler Lockett (3rd round)
Jamison Crowder (4th round)*
Stefon Diggs (5th round)*

2014
Sammy Watkins (1st round)
Mike Evans (1st round)
OBJ (1st round)
Brandin Cooks (1st round)
Kelvin Benjamin (1st round)
Jordan Matthews (2nd round)
Davante Adams (2nd round)
Jarvis Landry (2nd round)
John Brown (3rd round)*

2013
DeAndre Hopkins (1st round)
Robert Woods (2nd round)
Terrance Williams (3rd round)
Keenan Allen (3rd round)
Kenny Stills (5th round)*

That's 22 players in five seasons, and only five of them would have been available with the 79th pick in their draft. By the way, 159 WRs were drafted in these five drafts, meaning the odds of your drafting a player as good as Martavis Bryant, at least as a WR, at the 79th spot would be 5 in 137 or so. About 3% chance. So, the Raiders likely made an excellent trade for one season, at least.

Quick considerations: The Raiders can release Seth Roberts after the season and owe nothing on his final season. That would free up $4m to re-sign Bryant if they so desire. They likely will. Even with the risk of suspension associated with marijuana, his likely payoff is at least as good as Roberts's, and if he stays on the field, he's a massive upgrade.

For Roberts, my too early projection is 15 games played, 6 starts, 40 receptions, 452 yards, and 3 TDs.
For Bryant, it's 9 games, 5 starts, 33 receptions, 462 yards, and 3 TDs - factoring in potential suspension.
If not suspended, I put Bryant at 13 games, 6 starts, 49 receptions, 706 yards, and 5 TDs.

 

There were some older Browns fans at Bw3 last night - they couldn't believe it.

 

Way too early projections

Last Year, the Raiders got this production:
Crabtree 58 receptions, 618 yards, 8 TDs
Cooper 48 receptions, 680 yards, 7 TDs
Roberts 43 receptions, 455 yards, 1 TD
Patterson 31 receptions, 309 yards, 0 TDs

Amari Cooper
Projections: 15 games, 15 starts, 53 receptions, 751 yards, 6 TDs

Jordy Nelson
Projections: 16 games, 16 starts, 75 receptions, 861 yards, 10 TDs

Seth Roberts
Projections: 15 games, 6 starts, 40 receptions, 452 yards, 3 TDs

Martavis Bryant
Projections: 9 games, 5 starts, 33 receptions, 462 yards, 3 TDs

2017: 180 receptions, 2062 yards, 16 TDs
2018: 201 receptions, 2526 yards, 22 TDs

 

Raiders' O-Line

2017
Donald Penn/Vadal Alexander
Kelechi Osemele
Rodney Hudson
Gabe Jackson/John Feliciano
Marshall Newhouse/David Sharpe

2018
Donald Penn/David Sharpe
Kelechi Osemele/Denver Kirkland
Rodney Hudson/James Stone
Gabe Jackson/John Feliciano
Kolton Miller/Vadal Alexander/Breno Giacomini

Is Miller an upgrade over Newhouse? He might well be.

 

Nelson and Cooper... Biletnikoff and Branch 2.0?

 

Things are getting weird.

4. The trade: #41 for #57 and #89.
By the JJ list, Raiders traded 490 value points for 330 and 145. That's 475. In terms of actual value, the Raiders traded 160.8 for 137.6 and 104.4. That's 242. Huge win again.

5. Selecting PJ Hall
PJ Hall 6'1" 310#
NFL.com Rating 5.73 - chance to become NFL Starter
PFF Rated him 11th among DLs

I don't think anyone has more monstrous stats than Hall. As a Senior, he had 19 TFL, 6 Sacks, 6 Pass Breakups, and 4 blocked kicks. He won a ton of awards, too.

NFL Comparisons:
Grady Jarrett

6. Trade
Raiders receive pick #65. They trade #75, #152, and #212.

In JJ scheme, that's trading 215 + 31.6 + 7.6 (256.2) to get 265. That's a win for Raiders on that scale, but on the Harvard scale, that's trading 117.4 + 62.6 + 35.9 (215.9) to get 128.0, a horrible trade.

7. Draft Pick #65
Raiders select Brandon Parker, OL, NCA&T
Raiders continue to reach a bit, which you cannot do when you give up draft positioning like in that trade.
6'8" 305# 35" arms
NFL.com Grade: 5.44 - NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential (ugh!)
He was projected in the 4th-5th round, and his NFL Comparison is current Raider Jylan Ware.

He's a huge project, apparently, with ridiculous upside.

 

Hall looked mostly awful against NDSU, the only game where every play was available online. He's big and he's fast, but he gets blown off the ball and seems to lose the play a lot. He started looking much better against the run in the second half. He had an INT after dropping back to try to bat down a pass. He's mobile.

His team was obliterated in this game, and he gave up on a couple plays. Didn't really stack up the middle as much as you'd like.

His body of work is impressive: 86.5 tackles for loss, 14 blocked kicks, 42 sacks. And his Pro Day was insane: 4.73 40, 38" vertical, and 36 reps in the bench.

 

8. Trade for 87
Raiders trade #87 for #89 and #217. This is a slight win in overall value on the a priori (JJ) chart, but it's a 15% loss in the a posteriori chart. Then again, some of these players at around 217 are unlikely to hit, so it's hard to complain if you really think your guy won't be there in two spots.

9. Pick #87
Arden Key 6'5" 238, EDGE, LSU
He was the 8th rated Edge Defender from PFF.
NFL.com Grade 5.60 - Chance to become NFL Starter
He has struggled with drugs and weight issues in addition to minor but nagging injuries. He also set a school record for sacks in a season.
NFL Comparison: Willie Young - who put together an inconsistent career, with four non-descript seasons and a three-year stretch in which he totaled 24.0 sacks.

 

Key was mocked as high as 23rd on PFF, noting he was a "top-10 talent," grading him at 81.6 in 2017 and 88.0 on pass-rushes in 2016 (tenth best in the nation). He has the potential for serious pass rushing.

 

I liked this pick... Hope Key doesn't become Aldon Smith Redux.

 

Raiders are taking risks. That's for sure. I think there were far better high floor, guaranteed adequate players available that the Raiders have passed on for incredibly high ceiling players. BTW, I also don't really believe Gruden isn't looking at advanced stats.

Kolton Miller could become a franchise LT. Miller had the highest SPARQ rating of all OLs, rating him in the 99th percentile among NFL players.

Arden Key could become the best pass-rusher in the draft. He looks fast as hell on tape, but he posted a poor time (injuries and quick drop in weight after being overweight) and I can't find a bench on him.

PJ Hall's stats are some of the most insane I've ever seen - both in terms of production (86.5 tackles for loss, 42 sacks, 14 blocked kicks) and in terms of athletics (700# squat, 38" vertical, 36 bench presses, and 4.8 40 at nearly 310 pounds). He posted a 91st percentile SPARQ score.

Brandon Parker was 31st among OL for SPARQ score, making him an average NFL athlete. I can't find the specific stats for Parker, but his team allowed only 25 sacks when he was a freshman, 23 when he was a sophomore, and 10 when he was a senior. He could be a solid RT going forward.

 

Miller could be another Veldheer or Lachey both of whom were solid starters at tackle during their careers.

Word out that we're shopping Roberts. Nelson and Bryant on the outside with Cooper in the slot. Cook at TE. Not too shabby...

 

Nick Nelson - was on PFF's top boom or bust picks (along with Key).
He was the top rated player on Wisconsin last year, and he posted a pretty dominant score in coverage.

 

First thought...did we just get our slot corner?

 

Maurice Hurst had the single best interior defender grade since PFF started tracking stats.
He's a 5.94 on NFL.com
Great pick!

 

Wait! Hurst is the guy with the heart condition...f***.

 

Time for a skill position on O? RB?