2016 Rumor Mill: Trades and Players to Watch

Also I'm quite a Randle fan. I'm not sure Okafor ends up being a better player. There's very few guys I'd trade Randle for and Okafor would be, at best, a lateral move I think.

 

I'd trade Randle and anyone not named Clarkson or Russell for Okafor in a heartbeat.

 

A few interesting suggestions here regarding Okafor. I don't know that he's available, so I won't address that aspect. I do, however, want to discuss the impact of Okafor vs. Randle.

If we look at the raw numbers, there's one that really jumps out at people: it's Okafor's scoring.
Okafor vs. Randle
30.4 MPG 27.3
17.1 PPG 11.1
1.2 APG 1.7
7.4 RPG 10.0
0.4 SPG 0.6
1.2 BPG 0.4
49% FGs 42%
68% FTs 70%

Okafor has one borderline elite stat for a big - his points per game. Okafor is 33rd in the league in scoring, and he's tied for 3rd (according to ESPN) in PPG by a Center. Randle's scoring is 17th among PFs, and it's tied for 105th in the league. Okafor isn't an elite player in any aspect of his game (more on this in a bit), but Randle already is. Randle is currently 10th in rebound per game, and his rebound rate is higher than every player averaging at least 25 MPG except Whiteside, DeAndre, and Drummond.

Now, Randle has played 3 mpg fewer than Okafor, and that's not (Lakers fans know) because Julius doesn't deserve more minutes. So, let's look at the players in terms of their per100 possession performance to smooth out some of those pace and mpg differences.

Okafor vs. Randle
27.7 Points 20.3
24.0 FGA 19.0
5.8 FTA 6.1
11.9 REB 18.2
2.0 AST 3.1
1.9 BLK 0.7
0.7 STL 1.2

Okafor does score significantly more, and I give players props for being able to put up a shot every (just less than) 4 minutes and shoot near 50%. Randle's no slouch in scoring though, and he does it on a shot not quite every five minutes. Their FTA rate is similar, which shows that Randle is more aggressively going to the hole. Randle's assist rate is 150% of Okafor's, and his steal rate is nearly twice Okafor's. His rebound rate is astronomical compared to Okafor's. But Okafor does something you want from your bigs: blocks shots at a rate nearly triple Randle's. It's worth noting, however, that none of these numbers are elite with the exception of the rebound rate on Randle. In other words: only one of these guys is elite at anything.

Now, you might think that they're both young, and they're both developing, so perhaps Okafor's massive frame will allow him to become an elite rebounder. Perhaps, but that's not the trend, and it's not the trend either that Okafor is moving toward being an elite scorer. Look at the per month splits.

OKAFOR
OCT: 18-7-1 on 50%
NOV: 17-8-1 on 46%
DEC: 17-8-1 on 45%
JAN: 17-5-1 on 61%
FEB: 16-9-2 on 49% (limited games)
Notice anything? He's not going anywhere. He's posting numbers essentially the same as he did on day 1 of the season.

RANDLE
OCT: 9-7-1.5 on 35%
NOV: 12-9-2 on 45%
DEC: 12-10-1 on 39%
JAN: 10-10-1.5 on 41%
FEB: 13-13-2 on 46% (limited games)
Notice anything? He's building - improving his scoring (more or less) and massively improving his rebounding); his FG% has gone from the toilet to nearly what Okafor's is, too.

I don't want to prognosticate about what players will be for their full future, but I love the way Randle has handled adversity and seemingly used it as motivation. His injury, rotation nonsense, and starter/non-starter stuff hasn't had a negative impact on him. Nor did the losing. Okafor has had some public problems, and he hasn't improved noticeably since season's beginning. I think both big guys have a lot to offer in the NBA, but if I had to take a player right now, I'd take Randle.

 

I was in the middle of posting something similar to @trodgers so I'll just throw this in there for emphasis on Randle's elite rebounding ability:

Double-Doubles from Rookie/Sophomores:
Towns: 30
Randle: 21
Porzingis: 18
Okafor: 11

Total Rebounds:
Towns: 547 (in 1627 minutes)
Randle: 538 (in 1476 minutes)
Porzingis: 415 (in 1525 minutes)
Okafor: 347 (in 1431 minutes)

Randle right now is 4th overall in total rebounds in the NBA today.
His defensive rebounding percentage is 4th behind only Drummond, Jordan, and Whiteside.

It may seem like a small point, but it's an absolutely elite skill that Randle possesses which none of his peers do except maybe Towns who is bigger, taller, and plays more minutes.

I like Okafor a lot and I think in the right environment he can be a great asset (not Philly), but I wouldn't trade Randle for him. I'd love to get him somehow, but not using Randle or Russell.

 

Oh, crap! I did all this, but I did it for total rebound rate. I'll check defensive:

Julius Randle

On Court:
LAL Total Rebound %: 49.0
OPP Total Rebound %: 51.0

Off Court
Total Rebound %: 46.3
OPP Total Rebound %: 53.7

Differential: +5.2%

Best Differentials:
Tarik Black: +13.7%
Randle: +5.2%

Jahlil Okafor

On Court:
PHI total rebound %: 48.1%
OPP total rebound %: 51.9%

Off Court:
PHI Total rebound %: 47.4%
OPP Total rebound %: 52.6%

Differential: +1.4%

Best differentials:
JaKarr Sampson +4.7
Tony Wroten +3.0
TJ McConnell +2.9
Jerami Grant +2.5
Robert Covington +1.7

 

Randle's Defensive Rebound Rate:

On Court: 0.0%
Off Court: -6.9%
Differential: +6.9%

Biggest Differential on Team:
Tarik Black +10.1%
Randle +6.9%

 

I'd be all for getting Okafor, but I'm not giving up any of our core four (Russell / Randle / Clarkson / Nance) unless it gets us something special like a Durant.

 

I'd give up Nance in heartbeat if he's all it cost for Okafor. I think I'd roll the dice on a a Nance + lose the protection on our pick for Okafor as well. Sure, the pick could end up #1 and it becomes Ben Simmons and Nance for Okafor. But it stands a much better chance of being no pick at all and Nance. Nance is a nice player, but I think he's more in the Tarik Black mold as far as being a really solid rotational player, but not a starter.

 

IF we could get Okafor for Nance only, then sure, but that's NOT gonna happen. I would not trade Nance plus the pick.