2015 Nba Draft Discussion: Russell, Nance Jr., Brown

Johnson's man-to-man defense was world's better than Winslows. I watched him a LOT specifically to catch what he looked like defensively and let me tell you that kid is a great defender. He moves his feet, he has active hands, and he's built sturdy like an Amish barn. Winslow was able to have flashier defensive stats because Coach K had him playing free safety to cover for Okafor's lack of lateral movement. Kaminsky would take Okafor out to the three point line then drive right past him. Winslow was waiting for him the paint for the steal or block which boosted his stats. Winslow is no slouch defensively, but Johnson is a great defender. I'd give Winslow an A- and I'd give Johnson an A+.

Winslow has a great Euro-step that I think can translate into the NBA, but he really isn't a great ball handler. He's just able to sneak by his man, then use the Euro-Step to create a little room for himself a la Ginobili or more recently a la James Harden. Stan Johnson isn't a great ball handler either, but he's better than Winslow and he's able to keep defenders back with his strength and footwork. Johnson played as a PF/C in high school at times and you can see it with his post-up ability and footwork. His offense is reminiscent of an older Ron Artest; the Ron Artest that played in Houston and early with the Lakers. Where Winslow is a more explosive athlete he can create contact going up, Johnson really struggles to explode in traffic which leads to a lot of floaters and blocked shots. I give them a push for being able to drive each of them grading out with about a B.

They're about equal on the glass. Winslow uses more athleticism than Johnson, but Stan again has great footwork on box-outs. Stan Johnson is actually great at pinning his man on the weak-side for a rebound. Winslow is better at rising through traffic and grabbing one. Personally I think Stan's will translate better over time, but Winslow's will be better early on. I'd give them both a B.

Shooting isn't Stan's strong suit and honestly it's not Winslow's either. He had a great tournament while Stan struggled with his shot so the gap looks wider than it is. Stan finished this last season as a 37% shooter from deep which is not bad and Winslow finished with nearly 42% which is quite good. They shot nearly the same amount too (Stan with 116, Justice with 110). The edge is definitely Winslow's on this front, but Stan just needs to work on finishing his shots at the proper angle. Shooting is the easiest thing to fix in the pros. Just as a frame of reference Winslow is a 64% free throw shooter and Stan is a 74% free throw shooter. The ability is there. Still I give Justice a B+ and Stan a B-.

Intangibles is a tricky thing. Everyone is quick to point out that Stan didn't step up in big games, but he won 4 State Championships in California as a High School student, shattering records along the way. He didn't shoot well in his last two games, but people are quick to forget that in his first game he went 8/11 from the field, 4/5 from deep, and scored 22 points with 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block in his first game. Despite missing just about every shot against Oklahoma he chipped in 10 rebounds and 2 steals. His game against Xavier he went 4/10 which isn't horrible and had 6 rebounds as well. Really the game that sticks out where he was unimpressive was the game against Wisconsin where he really struggled, got in foul trouble, and had to leave the game. I suspect though that if you ask the Wisconsin players, one of their directions from their coach was to try to draw fouls from the other team's best players. That's why Okafor and Towns had foul issues against them as well. I'm just saying all of this to remind people that Stan Johnson is just as much an intangible guy and a leader as Winslow. Winslow is one of those players that caught fire at the right time so his actions stand out a little more. I will not however take away from Winslow's fantastic tournament. He captured the moment in ways that few can and catapulted his draft stock back even higher than it was when the season started. He showed poise and for the most part good decision making. He was aggressive and strong when his team needed him to be. He was the perfect foil to Okafor's dominating presence inside and Jones' speed outside. I'm going to give him the slight edge over Johnson in intangibles, but it's very, very close. Winslow gets an A and Johnson gets an A-.

I've heard the argument: "I haven't seen Johnson do anything better than Winslow" and I'd have to say go back and watch the tape. At worst they're equals, but they're different players. If you want a boom/bust option with high potential take Winslow. If you want a solid kid who's going to be an NBA player with a low floor and lower ceiling perhaps then take Johnson. I love defense so I want Johnson.

By the way if you give those grades a point value and average them out:
Winslow: 3.44 (B+)
Johnson: 3.38 (B+)

Just to show I'm being fair.

 

Okafor is my pie in the sky. If we end up with the first or second pick and take Okafor, I honestly think our franchise has found a way to again change the league. Okafor's offensive ability is something I haven't seen from a college kid in a long, long time. His physical profile would have fit in perfectly 20 years ago and I think he's got the kind of talent to make people reconsider the recent NBA model of success.

Randle/Okafor is the best 4/5 punch for the next 10 years if we pull that off (given a couple years to get acclimated of course).

 

Thanks!

I see Winslow in two ways: if he ends up in a good program I can see a good, strong SG/SF prospect. If he ends up in a bad program I could see a Chris Douglas-Roberts but with more strength and less speed. It's all about where he lands. If we can get to him and there's no other home-runs on the board (Okafor, Towns, or Mudiay for me) then I could see us taking the shot.

But like you said, if you can leave with a 19 year old version of a veteran Ron Artest, then that's a pretty damn solid pick. He might not be the game changer for us, but he'd be a good player for a long time.