2015 Nba Draft Discussion: Russell, Nance Jr., Brown

We don't know and that's because we haven't got our pick yet. Grab and impact player with our top 5 draft pick, grab another Max in Free Agency, and a mid-tier, combine that with Clarkson/Randle and you now have put yourself in a position to make the PO's next year over 1 offseason...

 

To clarify my reference to Gasol and Nowitzki, I don't project him to be on their level, just not a weak one dimensional player like Fry. I see the post play and passing skills of Pau, and the shooting skills of Nowitski. To get to their HOF level of play is certainly a long shot that I would never bet on, but also not impossible. LOL...I'm a Laker fan, grasping for something in the basketball universe to get excited about this dismal year. As a Wisconsin native I've enjoyed watching the Badgers much more than the Lakers this year.

 

It's been a great tournament but the only two guys who have really moved up in my mind are Winslow and Dekker. I don't think either guy's performance in the tournament can be ignored. Winslow has carried this Duke team multiple times. He has earned the top spot as far as SF's go. I always thought Kaminsky was a top 10 pick so my opinion on him hasn't really changed much. Fair or not, Stanley Johnson has been hurt by the tournament. I think Cauley-Stein may have been hurt a bit by last night's game, but still can't see him going lower than 6th or 7th.

1. Okafor
2. Towns
3. Russell
4. Winslow
5. Mudiay
6. Cauley-Stein
7. Hezonja
8. Johnson
9. Kaminsky
10. Dekker

 

If Wisconsin wins the whole thing and Dekker has another great game, the Stanley Johnson vs Dekker argument gets a whole lot more interesting.

 

I thought Russell hurt his stock in the tourney, as did Johnson. both slipped to the bottom half of my top 10. I still take Johnson over dekker. the hype train's getting out of control there, a la cleanthony early last year. dekker's like chandler parsons...if parsons was worse in every possible way, including size and athleticism. the two Wisconsin guys are non-lotto to me.

okafor/towns
mudiay/wcs/winslow
hezonja/Russell
Johnson
don't care anymore

 

Nah. Dekker and Kaminsky both have more than proven themselves on the court.

 

Johnson's drop is more based on how well Winslow is playing than anything else. Absent a gigantic collapse tomorrow night and in workouts, I just can't see anyone picking another wing over this guy.

 

Pretty much what my top 10 is except i'd flip Johnson and Hezonja.

I'm also strongly considering Towns over Okafor. The two way potential of Towns is just so intriguing.

 

I also like Cauley Stein. I thought i was the only one.

 

Hezonja is a difficult call for me, but I just think someone is going to bite on him around the middle of the lottery.

If you ask me about Towns and Okafor 10 times I might end up giving 10 different answers. I like both. Part of me thinks that if Towns went to a different team and played as many minutes as Okafor he would have put up the same numbers. I'm sure someone has broken that down in one of these articles. I can definitely see him ending up as the first pick.

 

I just don't think it's reliable to judge NBA potential success from the tournament. The guys that are built for the NBA and have demonstrated talent are the safer bet than dudes who happen to step up in the tournament against NCAA level talent. Let's not forget a certain star from Gonzaga.

 

I don't think the tournament is any more or less reliable than anything else. I certainly disagree with people that completely dismiss it.

I also can't help but scratch my head at how people are so quick to believe a highlight video or 3rd and 4th hand accounts of guys they have never seen play, but will quickly dismiss kids they can watch every day. Sure, talented NBA guys have had bad performances in the tournament. But plenty of others have had great performances. How could leading your team to a championship ever be seen as a bad thing? Just makes no sense to me.

 

Sure. I get that. But a certain future Laker also helped lead his team to that championship game.

My main thought is when I look at these mocks and see guys like Oubre and Turner ahead of Dekker and Kaminsky. Is Dekker suddenly a sure thing because of the tournament? No. But there is no way I take Oubre and/or Turner over him.

 

If in context, I have no problem with tourney stock fluctuation. But it's rarely in context. People (from us all the way to paid draft experts) easily get caught up in the trending player, the hot story this time of year, and disregard any and all previous data.

My biggest issue (and a good example of giving too much weight to the tourney) with this is I've read a few reports lately that list Okafor's stock as slipping. Not necessarily his draft position, haven't seen anyone dumb enough to drop him down to #3 over it, but just his value. 1) he's built for the NBA and not college ball. By that I mean he'll fit much better with a real 3 point line. Spacing and crowding him won't be as easy unless you're going to fully commit a double. In college, the paint congestion looks like rush hour traffic. 2) duke's guards are very poor post entry passers, if they don't have a perfect pass then they don't feed him regardless of mismatch. 3) the guards are awful at the drive and drop, if they go to the rim, they're taking the shot themselves. 4) coach K's usage of him or ignoring him for 5-6 minutes at a time is perplexing. They had a couple games where they couldn't score and even then he didn't get it. Nothing drawn up for him during those stretches, nada. I feel like they get too caught up on the run and gun style at times. It's working right now because Winslow is putting up big numbers, but in general I don't agree with the concept of ignoring your best player repeatedly and not even waiting for him to get to mid court before the ball goes up.

All 4 of those issues are erased come draft night. any starting PG can do a better job of hitting him with a pass. And any coach not named MDA won't ignore their new starting C like that.

I didn't intend to make this an Okafor post to illustrate my point, but I guess it's appropriate given they're still standing. I feel the same way about Johnson too (not for the same reasons), but I think he's built for the NBA. The pre draft workouts between he and Winslow should be fun.

 

Great post, I agree that Okafor and Johnson is more fit for the NBA. My draft board hasn't changed much.

1. Okafor
2. Towns
3. Johnson
4. Caul-Stein/Winslow
5. Russell/Mudiay

Picks 1 and 2 are based on talent.
Picks 3 and 4 is based on our need (SF and C)
If we get the 5th pick, I don't mind going back to "best talent available"

 

I'm not dismissing it entirely just the movement of guys we've watched all season long and assessed as likely to succeed in the NBA. Someone has an uneventful game, team maybe gets an early exit, and they drop while guys who haven't shown as much throughout the whole season suddenly start rolling a bit and move up. It's different when a player shows that level of talent all year long and continues it in the tournament. I agree about the clip hype. That's why I'm so wary of Mudiay. But it seems he's shown enough to keep himself high on the list.

 

A lot of mock drafts that i've seen today have Towns at 1 okafor 2. Not sure why his stock has gone up

 

It will be interesting to see how it all ends up playing out. At the end of the day, I still think Okafor will go first and the draft will fall into place the way most folks have projected all season long. I do think Winslow has separated himself from the pack and Dekker has probably played himself into the lottery. I can't argue with either of those guys rising on draft boards.