2015 Nba Draft Discussion: Russell, Nance Jr., Brown

Worst case scenario and Russell's athleticism hinders his ceiling in the NBA, couldn't he be a Rubio with a jumpshot, or is Rubio more athletic than he looks? Rubio + money jumper = a really nice PG.

 

I don't think he's nearly as natural of a creator as Rubio. I see a homeless man's Harden without some of the physical tools.

 

PLEASE let teams be dumb enough to let him slide to us! And I'm sorry, I get a team like Philly having him ranked 3rd, but the GM for whatever team has him ranked 5th should resign today.

if we pick after Minny, that'd mean Mudiay falls into our laps. Works for me.

Even if we don't land either guy I want us to take, if we're able to walk away with an all star...Mitch did his job.

 

The injury concern of having a smaller frame like Rubio's is valid. I just don't agree with Russell not having good enough PG skills. From what I've seen, and what scouts seem to agree on, is that he has elite court vision, elite passing, and elite understanding of the game-seeing plays 2-3 steps ahead. Having those traits at an elite level at only 19 is special. He may never have the physical tools to finish well at the rim or be an effective penetrator, and he may be an injury risk with his frame...i'll concede those. But I'll insist that he seems to have elite floor general skills and an elite jumpshot at the very least. Those two skills will be his floor, barring injury. Like I said, I may eat big-time crow cause I ain't backing down on this kid.

 

Okafor won't get past the number two pick unless maybe the 76ers have the 1st or 2nd pick. Even then, they might still grab him. I just don't buy all the talk of him slipping. Sure, some guys may be experimenting with their draft boards, but when its actually time to pull the trigger and make the pick I don't see many teams passing on a guy with his skill level.

 

Again, you aren't alone in your belief in Russell. He does have elite vision, passing, and understanding of the game. He makes plays that you can't really teach people how to make and that opinion has been echoed by a number of scouts who have evaluated him and spoken on record about his game.

 

Totally fair.

Where I'm more optimistic than you is in two areas:

1. I think he has real potential to be on the Rubio/Rondo level of vision & passing skills...maybe even Nash & Kidd level. He's not there yet, but I see something very special in "the way he seems to see the game" already at only 19.

2 I see him having the handles, intelligence, and craftiness (a la Nash) to make up for a lack of physical athleticism.

I'm not saying he's anything close to Nash, Curry, or Kidd yet. I just see some of their attributes in his bag of tricks that he'll have to continue to hone.

 

There's no way Okafor slips that low. Out of anyone in the draft, he's got the highest floor. At worst, he goes 3rd.

 

yeah, I can't see him slipping past two, actually. lots of jibber jabber heading into the draft, but when the chips are down, teams go for the talented big man. I'm actually going to be surprised if towns goes ahead of him, to be quite honest.

 

I don see Okafor slipping that much, but also keep in mind that the amount of misinformation out there is going to go from a trickle to a river soon. Teams will put false info out there to further their own cause, and everyone wants to know what everyone else's draft board looks like.

Just look at what happened to ORL last year at the draft. PHI found out their plan and then made them fork over a first rounder in order to get Elfrid.

So Okafor dropping that low could very well just be teams trying to scare someone in the top 2 from taking him or trying to throw someone off their real big board.

In the end, Okafor and Towns likely go 1-2. Cases can be made for Mudiay and Russell (I actually like Russell a lot in the NBA game) but still, bigs like Towns and Okafor can be tough to find.

 

But I didn't say let's draft Upshaw or Johnson & have Davis/Hill/Sacre backing them up. My suggestion was instead of WCS & signing Asik or Koufos, we draft the best Guard or Wing available, grab Upshaw or Johnson later on, & sign Biyombo. Any of WCS/Upshaw/Johnson have long roads ahead of them to become the defender/rebounder that Biyombo already is today, & he's only 22. With a young stud like that, you can afford to use the top 5 pick on a Guard or Wing & gamble on those other C's late 1st/early 2nd.

He could be behind Clarkson. Either as a pure backup that isn't ready for a big role, or splitting minutes. He could also take the starting job & look like a star right away like Rose, Lillard, & Wall, putting up atleast 16/7 as a rook. These things are kind of unpredictable.

Here's why I go this route instead of WCS/Asik:

- Both Mudiay & Clarkson would be on rookie contracts VS. paying a vet 8-10M per season to come mentor & be an insurance policy like the suggested Asik/WCS situation.
- If WCS ends up being an immediate impact player, we have Asik making 8-10M to ride the bench & lose any trade value he has. We saw how ugly Houston's attempt at playing Asik at PF next to Dwight was. & with Randle, it doesn't even make sense to attempt Asik at PF.
- On the other hand, if Mudiay is an immediate impact player, it doesn't kill Jordan's development. JC's more than capable of playing big minutes at both guard spots.
- Let's accept the painful truth as much as I wish it wasn't true. There are probably going to be plenty of minutes available at SG.The most likely scenario for Kobe is limited minutes & sitting out back to back's to keep him as healthy as possible. Despite this he will still miss some games with minor injuries, & I don't think another season ender would surprise anyone.
- Drafting WCS over Mudiay leaves us still trying to sign a 5M-MLE level PG. I know many want Mo Williams, but I think they'd first go after Rondo. Between Asik & Rondo or Mo, we're out of the running for those max or near max SF's.
- Looking beyond next season, Kobe probably retires or even better comes back on the cheap & shocks us all by accepting a 6th man role providing instant offense off the bench. Mudiay & Clarkson could be our starting backcourt for the next decade.
- I see Biyombo as a better option than Asik right now & a better prospect than WCS. At 22 he's already an elite defender & rebounder. Grantland ran a piece about FA Steals & he was on the list. They said his lack of an offensive game scared teams away & execs think he can be had for a multi year deal starting at 4M. He has a QO of 5.2M. Anywhere from 4-6M I see this as an absolute steal. I think he's worth every bit of 8M but at 4-6, take it & run.
- A gamble on a guy like Upshaw or Johnson isn't as big of a risk with Biyombo on board.
- Cheaper starting C, backup prospect via late 1st/early 2nd, & backup PG through lottery pick leaves us with the maximum cap space possible. We can give max offers to Butler/Middleton or a PF like LMA/Love if you're in the Randle at SF crowd. The WCS/Asik/Rondo or Mo route leaves us only able to go after 2nd/3rd tier FA's.

 

Stat projections for the lotto picks

NBA Draft 2015: Rookie Projections for Likely Lottery Picks (via http://ble.ac/teamstream-) http://teamstre.am/1GPRB4p

 

I really don't know what to think about Towns. I've seen comparisons ranging from AD, Sheed, to Brian Cook. If he's the once in a generation big that many believe he is, it's not farfetched for him to outscore Okafor, & I think it's expected for him to outrebound him & block more shots. The 10+ isn't far fetched for Russell & Mudiay, but the 5+ & 5+ are probably on the high side. I could see the 5+ assists for Mudiay but the rebounds are a reach.