^^ Agreed. I think DAR and JC will always average more points than Randle going forward. But there are certain teams/matchups that Randle can exploit. In those games he can create havoc in the paint and explode for 30+ pts.
You didn't think I meant the whole year average did you? 25 might be optimistic, but if someone is willing to put in the work to get there, it's him. With as many offensive talents as we might have by then, 20 is probably a better goal. He's basically 15/11 since All Star break on 49% shooting. Thinking we should keep him.
It only gets better going forward long as Boron is gone and finally they hire someone good and he stays healthy. Julius is so strong and he's quicker than most guys his size. Loving the "touch" finally being shown with him continuing to lay it up and finish with his right hand. Shoot all summer and get that going too and who knows what he can average next year.
This is NOICE to see. November 11.8/8.9 in 29.3 December 11.5/10.4 in 25.5 January 9.9/10.1 in 25.9 February 12.9/11.8 in 30.4 March 16.2/10.7 in 30.5
Regardless of where his numbers wind up, I think Julius will be the kind of player whose contribution doesn't get fully reflected in the stats. A guy with his motor, his physicality and his knack for the ball creates havoc in the paint for opposing defenses. Even if he doesn't shoot or doesn't end up grabbing a rebound, the defenses he faces will have to account for him because he'll be all over the place every time down the court. That makes him an impact player and there's just no stat for that. He does need to work on his offensive repertoire this summer if wants to continue to be relevant, but I'm not so focused on where his point total actually ends up.
He's developing nicely. The key with me was making sure to get him through this season healthy, whole, and in tact. We've done that. He's rebounding at a very nice clip, using his right hand more often, and as others have mentioned rebounding at an elite rate. Next step and what opens things up for him is that jumper; Murray (Lakers shooting coach) also mentioned working on that pull-up jumper. The positive step is he won't be working on his body or his leg this summer; he'll completely working on his game. I look forward to a better Julius next year...
Randle has the work ethic so he will round his overall game. He credits 24 for keeping on him during his rehab instilling that attitude. ...double anti-jinxes RROFY's post.
I usually see people have absurdly high expectations of our players, but lately everyone is underestimating randle The man is already at 15/13 per 36 mins in his FIRST season. He will develop and add more moves to his arsenal, and improve that jumpshot Something like 20/10 is very reasonable in the near future (or more than 10 rebounds if we don't get a better center)
When you say "very reasonable," how likely do you think it is? 50% chance? I just think it's important to put these things into context. First, he's averaging 15.2 per 36 minutes this season, so that gives us a baseline for where he is as a player. To get from there to 20 PPG, he'd have to make 2.4 more FG per 36. In other words, he'd have to shoot 61% from the field. How likely is that? Only 17 players are shooting 60% or better, and all but 6 of them have taken <52 FG. So if there are about 14 players per team times 30 teams, that's 420 players, so a 6 in 420 chance (1 in 70, 1.4%). EDIT: I screwed up here. The numbers are more favorable for Julius: Or he could shoot more - like 2.8 more times per 36. In that case, he'd be shooting 16.5 times per 36 minutes. Only 13 bigs are taking shots at that rate in at least 500 minutes. That's 3.1% Or he could split the difference, bump up his FG% to .519, and shoot 16.1 times per 36 minutes. No one in the NBA is doing those things. That's close to 0%. How likely is 20 PPG? There are only 25 players in the NBA doing it, and only six of them are 6'9" or taller. All of them are All-Stars (Durant, George, AD, Lopez, Cousins, and Biff). That's the 1.4% chance again. Now, Randle has scored 20+ PPG 5 times this season, or about 1 in 13 games. That's 8%. I say we play the numbers and set his chances of averaging 20 PPG at around 2% based on league wide averages, but we can get crazy and average in his own personal 20+ PPG rate and end up at 5% chance of being a 20 PPG scorer. Is that very reasonable? The reason for the statistical breakdown is simply that 20 PPG isn't common in the NBA, and in order to get there, he either has to vastly improve his shot or start shooting a fair bit more - moving him to a rate of shooting that no one in the league is sustaining this season.
Prior to this season, I plotted our young players' career projections (using my own highly questionable methods). Here's Julius's career: Year 1: 13.2 points, 9.5 rebounds (that would be this season) Year 2: 14.3/9.6 Year 3: 15.4/9.8 Year 4: 16.6/10 Year 5: 17.8/10 Year 6: 19/10 Year 7: 17.8/10 Year 8: 16.6/10 Year 9: 15.4/9.8 Year 10: 14.3/9.6 Year 11: 13.2/9.5 I don't think he's far off having the ability to register a 20/10 season, but I don't think it happens soon, and I don't think it's something he sustains. He's a career 15-16/10 guy, in my view.
My thing is his right hand all of a sudden is showing some touch and he keeps working on it and going to it when he can in games let alone this summer. IF he does the same with his needed range of hitting his Js and starts knocking them down with a decent to good % ..... doesn't that progression become outdated and trend upward in a hurry? Edit..... but that is tempered after also next reading therealdeal's additional thoughts above trodgers' hypothetical progression. Makes a lot of sense too. How about 18 ish in a year or 2?
Julius with some improved free throw shooting and a mid range shot in my opinion has a better than 50% chance of being a 20-10 guy. Team defense gets better and we start running some breaks he is also going to get some fast break dunks. Pretty much there on the rebounding already. The thing about Julius though that is even more important is the confidence he brings to the guys. He brings a World Peace type confidence to the team. Everybody on the team knows we have a bruiser out there. Someone messes with one of our guys World Peace straightens it out. Julius will be the same. Every team needs the bruiser enforcer type of guy. Gives our guys confidence and gives the other teams a moment of pause. Brute strength and attitude go along way. Mix that with talent and drive and you have a star player. I want a player like Julius on my team every time.
Good point "Wolf" in my best Larry King voice ..... Seriously. He comes by it naturally from his quickness, strength and willingness to BANG. Never really wondered about him having a Ron Ron attitude on the floor. But for sure by now after playing with the "one and only" Ron Artest for months and months .... yeah it would make sense that would rub off and only add to what he seems to have already. In Summer League some knowing announcer said, "you can get hurt guarding Julius Randle".
Just can't imagine him backing down from anyone. That lets the entire team play harder and with more physicality. I love the young guns. My anticipation for next year is building everyday. Already planning to fly down with a couple of my youth league players to watch them play the Warriors next season. The way the players are developing we will easily pick up 10-15 more wins. Getting rid of Scott is easily worth 25-30. Looking good. I remember that quote. I liked it a lot. Most everyone here seems to have played ball at some level. It is very beneficial to have someone on your team that strikes fear into your opponent.
thanks to Rodgers for the data supporting my earlier points: 20/10 isn't common as an average. 20ppg isn't even common as an average for players at the pf/c spot. if Julius becomes a career 16/10 guy, the lakers hit a home run in the draft. let's be happy there.
I wouldn't be unhappy at 16/10... But I'm going to be much happier when he is closer to 20/10. If he ends up 18.7/11.9 I wont complain. It will mean we have a very good team. Lets not be afraid to have a little optimism.
