The Official Ed Davis Thread 2014-2015

Myself and the other writers over at Silver Screen & Roll did a round table about Ed Davis and his future with the Lakers:

Every week up until the sounding bell of the player signing period in July, we'll be polling the SS&R writing staff to see what their thoughts are on the Lakers' upcoming free agents, their potential market value and whether or not they'll be in the purple and gold next season. Our first summer free agent: Ed Davis

When he was signed last offseason for the veteran's minimum, most Lakers fans thought Ed Davis could be a potential steal. In many ways, they were right. The big man set career highs in nearly every category, not to mention being one of the few Lakers to emerge from 2014-2015 relatively unscathed. Davis led the team in games played with 79, providing a ton of production in just 23 mpg. At age 25, and hitting the free agent market for the second summer in a row, there's no doubt that the Big Boss is looking for a payday.

What do you feel is a fair free market contract for Ed Davis?

The Great Mambino: Three years and $25 million sounds about right to me, though because of his age I could see four years and $34 million as a possibility as well. Davis has a fairly well defined skill set that's super valuable--a mobile big man who doesn't care if he gets the ball, can finish in transition, can block shots and devours offensive rebounds. In this modern NBA, he's probably not a starter, but a very valuable back-up center off the bench.

Harrison Faigen: Three years at around $21 million? Even with a rising cap, I'm not sure Davis is worth eight figures yearly, but around $7 million per year seems just right. Rim protection and finishing in the pick and roll have a ton of value in today's NBA, and Davis would be a phenomenal bench big for a contender. Perhaps he continues a recent tradition of former Lakers migrating across the hall to the Clippers if they move on fromSpencer Hawes.

Jameson Miller: While teams may be more willing to make it rain this summer with an eye on the upward trajectory of the salary cap, the players (and their agents) aren't about to let themselves get bamboozled with deals that may undervalue their services at the tail end. It'll be interesting to see how marginal starters like Davis weigh long-term security vs. future potential earning power. Under the current system? I'd say anywhere in the range of $6-$8 million annually over two years with an option for a third belonging to whichever party concedes more on the yearly number.

Trevor Lane: Ed Davis signed with the Lakers for less than market value last off-season, causing many around the league to bemoan the good fortune of Mitch Kupchak. While it seemed that Davis took a giant pay cut, there was actually method to the madness. Davis followed in the footsteps of Nick Young by signing a two-year deal with a player option after year 1 so that he could prove his worth for a season and then cash out the following summer. Since the two employed the same strategy, I'm going to say that Ed gets the same deal Swaggy P did, although slightly larger due to the rising cap: four years, $25 million with a player option after the third year


What do you think are the mitigating factors in the Lakers pursuing him in free agency?

The Great Mambino: I feel like we'll run into this theme a lot this summer--the mitigating factor here has to be how many high priced free agents the Lakers have in their sights. If Indeed Kevin Love and/or DeAndre Jordan are on the table, then Davis may be an afterthought. It also depends on who the Lakers end up taking in the Draft. If Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns are possibilities, then re-signing Davis (on top of already having Juilus Randle) might not be a priority.

Trevor Lane: While Ed Davis has been one of the Lakers best players this season (his PER is the best on the team by far), there are a few decisions that will be made before free agency starts that will determine whether or not Mitch Kupchak sends him an offer. First and foremost, the Lakers have to find out if they keep their pick or not. Let's assume they do, because the basketball gods have to cut the them a break at some point, right?. If they end up selecting a big like Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, or Willie Cauley-Stein that will mean there is one less spot available in an already crowded frontcourt rotation.

From there, a decision needs to be made on Jordan Hill and Robert Sacre, who both have team options. Should either of them have their options picked up it will be less likely that Davis returns, but Jordan Hill in particular has an expensive $9 million contract that would make it a near certainty that Davis won't find the money he deserves in LA.

The final hurdle that has to be cleared is the other free agents the Lakers pursue. If they land one of the marquee bigs like LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, or Greg Monroe they probably won't be able to afford to bring back Davis and still have enough cap space to round out the rest of the roster.

Do you feel that the Lakers should bring Ed Davis back next year?

The Great Mambino: Unfortunately for Davis (or maybe just his future with the Lakers), I feel like his signing is going to be one of the last dominoes to fall. He's far back in priority if the Lakers take a big man in the Draft, if they can sign Love or Jordan and if they deem Jordan Hill's skill set more valuable than Davis' youth. Even though I see a ton of value with Ed, I see the Lakers shooting for bigger targets and him slipping from their grasp.

Harrison Faigen: If Mitch Kupchak and company grab a guard or wing in the draft and there are not many centers available in the musical chairs of free agency, the price could end up being right to retain Davis. Otherwise, probably not.

Trevor Lane: I like Ed Davis, but I'm going to say no, they shouldn't bring him back. He is a fantastic player but his shortcomings limit his usefulness. His slim frame kills his effectiveness as a center by making it tough for him to stand his ground defensively against bigger players, while his complete lack of a jump shot makes it difficult to play him at power forward because he tends to clog the lane on offense. In an ideal situation he would play next to a big, strong center who can defend in the post and also has the range to step out to the three-point line on offense. Players like that are a rare breed, and finding such a specific skill set just to make Ed Davis more effective doesn't seem like a worthwhile endeavor.

Additionally, the contract year effect has to be considered here. Davis has known since the middle of July that this entire season would essentially be an audition for his next contract and that millions of dollars were at stake. His PER jumped from 15.9 to 20 from last season to this one, and his previous career-high was 18.1. That large of a jump raises some red flags. It's certainly possible that he is just growing as a player, but the Lakers got burned by giving a long-term deal to Nick Young when he posted career numbers in a contract year last season, so they might be wise to proceed with caution.

The bottom line is that as the first big off the bench Davis can be a valuable asset, but for now the Lakers need to focus on spending their precious cap space on starting-quality talent, and unfortunately that would appear to leave Ed Davis out in the cold.

I shortened this up a bit, here is a link to the full article: http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2015/4/26/8497513/free-agent-forecast-ed-davis

 

Yep, I agree. The Lakers have a fantastic stable of cheap backup-quality bigs already in Randle/Kelly/Black/Sacre (I only have Randle here because he hasn't played a full NBA game, and think the Lakers will see him as a reserve until he gets acclimated). I see a lot of people who view the situation as Ed vs. Hill, when I think it's fairly likely that both aren't on the roster next year. All it takes to bump them both out is landing a big in the draft or free agency.

 

I think we need Davis back regardless of the draft. Let's be honest. Sacre and Kelly aren't 'quality' back-ups. They are the definition of 3rd string. And you could never have enough bigs. Not with the frequency that they get injured in this league.

 

I agree with you on Sacre & Kelly. But the decision on Davis is going to depend more on Free Agency than the Draft in my opinion. Even if we luck into Okafor or Towns, nothing is guaranteed with them or Randle, you need a very good backup like Davis. The only way I see Ed not coming back is if we sign an established star big like Love or LMA, or if another team gives him the big contract he probably deserves.

 

Latest on Ed Davis returning to the Lakers: http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/...-remain-in-la-wants-to-cash-in-on-career-year

 

Well that's how much he hopes to get, doesn't mean he will. Hopefully the Lakers aren't the one to give it to him if he does get $9mil.

 

I really like him, we'll see just how much he likes is by seeing how far down from that figure he's willing to go. He loves it here -- city, team, teammates, fans. Having a sense of security and knowing you can setup a home and stop jumping between teams might be worth a couple mill a year to him. That's the only way he's coming back.

 

I like Ed Davis a lot too, but not 7-9 million likes.

 

Good luck Ed. Thanks for the quality play on a bargain deal. Dude deserves a bigger paycheck somewhere.

 

The last thing this team needs to do is overpay for players. I like Ed but for the love of God, no more Hill type of deals. To give the FO credit, I don't think they'll bite this time.

 

Well, going into this season looks a weee bit different than going into last season big man wise. Adding Jahlil Okafor, Boom Boom and new and improved Julius the Beast makes the need not nearly as pressing as when Hill was the best Big we had.

 

After giving this a little more consideration, I'd pass on Davis; even for $5-6 million.

 

And Kelly has been in the gym working his a** off this whole off season to finally reach the beginning of his professional peak. He will be a lean and in shape machine for Byron 1st day ....wants no repeat of hammy problems. IF he stays healthy and has done all of that I'm still excited to see that on the floor hopefully. Smart player and comes from winning at highest levels of college ball.

 

I think kelly could work out harder than anyone in the league and he will still be a decent role player at best