In defensive rating, they're not quite in the bottom 10, but Kuz and Zo are 11th and 12th worst in the league. (Minimum 25 minutes per and 15 games played) Bruh?!? I expected Kuz...but Zo. I feel like I've been lied to. Fans have used words like elite to describe it....more like delete that adjective from discussion till proven otherwise.
^People here throw around the word elite quite often and most of the time its inaccurate. I personally haven't checked any stats but I feel that Lonzo is an above average defender, DEFINITELY not elite. He is no Pat Beverley and even if he was PG defense isn't that valuable because offense still cooks defense and most PG's are able to take advantage of it. Lonzo's passing is also not elite IMO but very good. His passing is elite in transition or lobs but merely average for a PG in half court sets. LeBron is an elite passer. You see him find holes in half court sets without even looking and he makes amazing bounce passes or "pocket" passes and other P&R passes, he is also the best player to drive and kick in the NBA. Lonzo is good at throwing lobs and outlet passes, but I don't see many half court passes that make me go WOW. I don't think throwing around elite is appropriate in this case. His rebounding was elite last year but has regressed to above average this year. He is below 5 rpg which according to his minutes are still great for a PG but for a guy 6'7 thats just very good in my book.
I like to think of Ball as a different type of defender. To borrow from football, if Beverly is a cornerback, then Ball is a safety. Beverly excels at playing individual defense, Ball excels at disrupting areas of space. At the rate he's going, I'm willing to say he will become elite at the latter; but just not yet. Basketball-reference has Zo as an average to below-average defender, measuring close to guys like Ricky Rubio, Iguodala, PJ Tucker and Jamal Murray. I'm not anti-statistics, but I am suspicious of a stat that ranks Ball 12th worst in the league. I think it's tricky to draw definitive conclusions from statistics, defensive ratings especially. Correct me of I'm wrong, stat gurus - wouldn't most of our defensive stats be skewed (on the side of bad), even from a team level, since our pace is so high? Genuinely curious.
Most defensive metrics are pace-adjusted. DRtg, for instance, is points per 100 possession. So is DRPM. So is counterpart PER.
@Purp n Gold Ball is excellent at disrupting and reading passing lanes, I fully agree. I think that's the best part of his defense. He is ok at running through screens, gets cooked off the dribble by faster players. His man defense overall is not bad because of his length considering he usually plays guys that are smaller than him. He is also too tall for other PG to post him up. His size is a huge help and his speed is also good for his size.
@trodgers thanks. Sorry if I sound obnoxious. But maybe I'm asking about the weaknesses in per-100 ratings. I'm not questioning whether ratings are useful after the adjustment. But isn't it possible pace still influences ratings even with the per-100 adjustment? I'm also under the impression that the ratings work pretty well for teams, but possibly less accurate for players. Where am I going wrong? I'm not traditionally a stat guy, but I welcome learning something here
i believe that many in the stat community are concerned about the validity of omnibus defensive stats as applied to individual players. that said, they're rarely fully contra-indicative (at least I think). thus, if you're finding yourself near the bottom, it's unlikely you're great, and if you're finding yourself near the top, it's unlikely you're terrible. but like everything, it's hard to fully contextualize this stuff. guys can move teams and systems and look very different in many metrics, indicating that fit with system and appropriate usage do some driving. i think amir johnson graded out as like, the nba's best player, for a couple years statistically, but in hindsight (and really, at the time) it was clear that this was really about good deployment of his abilities within a unique context. hell, see almost all spurs role players for examples. the lakers have been bad defensively for chunks of this year, and lonzo's been part of that, so he'll get dinged on the stats. fwiw, i do think that with how the game is currently played, there aren't a lot of better pg defenders than ball. unfortunately for him and us, it seems wiser to spend your money on pgs who can put the ball in the basket than those who can defend. i think the FO thought they were going to buck that trend (and others), but so far, it seems that the trend continues, and we're currently on the wrong side of it.
That pretty much sums it up. Which is why I have been on the Kemba/Lillard bandwagon for a while now.
Right on. Just as there’s not one offensive stat i trust, there’s not one defensive one i trust. I’m not sure why defensive numbers would be sensitive to pace except in cases where a player is playing in a system that is the wrong pace to maximize his talents. There are play-type stats where you can see how many points a player scores or surrenders on, say, 1 on 1, situations. Ball doesn’t play enough minutes for pace to matter too much - as he’s young, Touted as a good athlete, and often sits half the game. I don’t find these questions obnoxious. It’s understanding the uses and limitations of stats. I’m waiting on some advanced metrics - from 82games and he DRPM. But other metrics have Ball far below elite this year.
I only want Kemba if we can add another star this offseason. Durant ain't coming for a discount which means we have to hope Kawhi wants to come here to play with Lebron and Kemba with Kuz and Hart as role players since both Ball and Ingram would have to go in the Kemba trade to free up the necessary room. We can't trade for AD if we move both Ball and Ingram in the Kemba deal. I honestly think we are standing pat for the offseason where we will try to trade for AD and sign KD. That's the plan, and I think we're sticking to it. Our biggest concern right now is whether or not Ball and Ingram can improve to the point where trading them for AD is even possible.
all the AD talk: he's going to be supermax eligible, right? or did he already sign that deal? in any case, he leaves a lot of cash on the table if he's not in NO next year, i think.
You are correct, but he also locks himself into a mediocre team. I think the theory is his eyebrow will create more income for him in Los Angeles than in New Orleans.
I think many of you are judging too harshly and too quickly. Lonzo didn't play a full year last season as a rookie and this season has barely started. He's bringing great D, good rebounding and passing. His scoring is mediocre to bad but I don't think that's of the upmost importance right now when we have a lot of guys on this team that can score, and potentially we may add one or two more all stars with monster scoring in FA/trade. I'm happy we drafted him and that we have him. He's learning and he's contributing to wins. If he gets moved I'll understand it but I'm not complaining right now.
Tony Parker was never a good shooter, but he was a great finisher at the rim. Maybe lonzo should work on that aspect of his game, along with fts that go with that style of play. He's got the size, speed and handles to do this at a respectable level. I think he's not 100% because he's afraid of the ft line.
It’s not even a maybe at this point. It’s essential that Lonzo works on driving to the hoop and making layups. He supposedly had, but the the only time he does it is on a fast break, and he STILL gets blocked and misses on too many of them. He has to stop being afraid of contact and go to the hoop. That’s the only way the game is ever going to open up for him or he’s going to be effective on offense. Someone also pointed out a few days ago that he doesn’t even do the thing that has made so many PGs successful that is driving to the hoop, and then if the layup isn’t there, driving back out or passing out to an open player. Steve Nash perfected this. Hell, Steve Blake did this so much it became frustrating because he’d never take the layup, he’d just “survey the paint”. But Zo hasn’t done this, he isn’t ADDING to his game in this way, and to me that is what’s concerning. He’s trying a few more back downs in the paint for layups this year, he’s trying some weird a** 15 foot floaters that airball, but aside from making more threes this season he hasn’t added to his offensive game. That won’t get you far in this league.
This post would make sense if Zo weren't #2 lotto pick. What upset me the most is that he has all the intangibles and physicality (coming into this season) to be GREAT, but his mindset is just not there. His disappearing acts during games are very concerning. He could play like Jason Kidd in one game and the next 5 games he would look like Darius Morris. I'm really rooting for this kid, and I hope he finds it at some point. I just don't think Magic has the patience if Zo continues to play the way he does and not improving the way we EXPECTED of him. The 2nd year of every player usually tells the story how their careers will shaped up to, so far this season it has been very disappointing to say the least.
Trying to let it be since i have been pretty critical of him, but I have to mention that no one seems to have any issues accepting the stats with other players. I’ve watched almost every game and if I’m being honest, his defensive numbers are pretty believable for me. I don’t see much of the great defense that’s often touted.
