Paul George Discussion

Lebron to GSW is the "hold my beer KD" for the biggest b**** move in the history of the league. I think he's wary of that image. Then again, I wouldn't put it past him.

 

Don't f*** us like the other Paul , George.

 

I'd like to know on what planet a CBA that was designed "to protect small market teams and promote parity" allows even the slightest possibility of Curry, Durant, Green and LeBron on the same team without them taking immense pay cuts?

Well done, Silver.

 

Isn't that more on Stern? Silver wants the Lakers to be contenders just as much as we do... Don't trip

 

vegas has houston as the favorites. +140 is the line. chris bosh thinks lebron's going to houston, and when pressed on the hows, he basically responded like i have: meh, details.

 

You called it before Chris

 

LeBron is NOT going to Houston.

I will put any amount of $ down on this. It's NOT happening. It's NOT EFFING HAPPENING.

 

well, vegas might take "the field" over houston, but they think you're pretty far off on this one. they're alone in first place (next is a three-way tie at +350 for the lakers, philly, and cavs--i think).

i think it's the most likely outcome as of today, just as i have since about midseason. nothing has changed my mind, and the manner in which the conference finals and finals have gone have only increased the likelihood, imo. he wants to beat the warriors. there's only one team who's come close. i think he can force his way there while allowing houston to keep: paul, harden, ariza, tucker, and capela. and maybe even a couple others.

it may be the move that forces the next lockout, too, as the league will push for a hard cap after these shenanigans (as if the paul forced trade wasn't bad enough).

 

Unless there's a team that has a secret jonesn for Anderson, how Houston keeps Harden, a maxed out CP3, a maxed out Capela and adds Bron is a cap-er too absurd for this amateur cap enthusiast to tell. No, that ridiculous story is only suitable for the clown prince himself. If Morey pulls it off, Bron most likely joins a team that is vastly different than the one we saw 1 win away from a Finals appearance. If Morey pulls it off by still retaining the core pieces of Houston's playoff team this year, then the Avengers have a new enemy to take on next summer...cause that gauntlet needs more than just infinity stones to achieve.

It is damn near impossible for Bron to join "that" Houston team. And if he joins Capela, CP3, Ariza and Harden, then fire D'Antoni and bring in Thibs asap, cause you better get your morey's worth.

 

Again, the salary cap gymnastics on this one is far too strong my friend. The ONLY WAY for the Rockets to get everybody is if Cp3 and LeBron take MASSIVE paycuts, we're talking 15-20M paycuts EACH. I do NOT see this happening for one reason: The rockets were 1 win away from beating GS WITHOUT LeBron...so Cp3 isn't going to take a paycut, and neither is anybody else (includes ARiza, Capela, etc).

The Rockets ALSO have to dump BOTH Anderson AND Gordon. DUmping gordon shouldn't be hard, but dumping Anderson? Oh boy. Good luck.

On top of that, they have to HOPE and PRAY that Capela doesn't sign a max offer sheet on DAY ONE of Free Agency (and hes' gonna get one from somebody and he'd be dumb to not sign it).

They also have to renounce Ariza and Mbah Moute.

So you're talking about potentially losing Gordon, Anderson, Capela, Ariza, Mbah Moute for a CHANCE at signing LeBron...a CHANCE.

Also, Houston has to dump players in order for any of this to be possible...which once again, it is not (unless they dump 4 first roudn picks).

The other way they can do it is have LeBron opt-in and force a trade with houston. Again, i don't see Gilbert doing this even if it means getting 4 first round picks....they'll have to take on both Anderson and Gordon's contracts and they'll be saddled with the highest payroll in the league for a non-contending LOTTERY team. I do not foresee GIlbert doing this.

I will bet you $100 right now Abeer that he does NOT end up on the Rockets. You can venmo me when I'm right.

 

gordon and anderson make enough to match salaries. i read somewhere that they can do gordon/tucker/nene/junk and get enough outgoing salary to bring lebron in, too. i'm too lazy to fact-check it. the beauty of the trade is that they keep all of their rights and exceptions. so ariza can stay...at any price. capela can stay...at any price.

the question is how many picks. i think unprotected picks in 2021 and 2023 and right to swap in 2022 is what i'd ask for in cleveland. by 2023, that pick may be a good one, and by then, you'll have dug out from the hole you're in. to reduce the lux tax hit for next year, you dump love (plus something less undesirable?) into cap space (which a few teams will have and might like to use on an allstar, maybe even our own lakers, tbh). if you dump love and say, korver (two guys teams would take), you're basically out of the tax. if you bottom out for two years, the pick you owe atlanta (top 10 protected)turns into second rounders (like our dwight trade).

now, the laker fan in me says all this means there's a way to do an opt-in and trade to la with deng as the centerpiece (we'd have to add serious goodies, though). but the houston angle is just too obvious. and the oddsmakers have finally caught up.

 

or real's shorter version. point is that all this talk of cap impossibility is just wrong. it's why dantoni and morey laughed at reporters who suggested they'd have to gut the team to get lebron. all they need is an owner willing to pay big tax, and word is that they have that.

 

@abeer3 I'm fully aware of the cap numbers and how it "could" work..haha. Just as Real has been doing, I've tried to see how you can present any gut-wrenching scenario to Gilbert with a nice little bow to make it at least somewhat appealing, but I just don't see it.

Lets revisit the CP3 opt-in and trade scenario. Houston had roughly 80M in team salary last summer and had roughly 19M in cap space to offer CP3. CP3 used that number to leverage the cLips into opting into his 24M option year and trading him so that the cLips at least gets some assets in return. CP3 was willing to sacrifice roughly 5M to waive his option year and just walk onto the Houston Rockets without the opt-in trade option, and in doing so, he successfully leveraged the cLips.

But remember that with the trade, Houston also acquired CP3's bird rights and why are those bird rights so important? Cause CP3, as the NBA players association president, successfully changed the "over-36 rule" to the "over-38 rule" in the current CBA. Essentially the rule stipulated that as players age, they are more prone to injury/retirement and hence a team can get an out from the latter guaranteed portions of these players contracts so they don't have to pay said player if they unexpectedly get injured and are forced to retire. It used to be that age 36 was where the contract was earmarked...but CP3 changed that to age 38.

Dude just turned 33 and is going to be an UFA this summer. Houston is the only team that can offer him a 5 year maxed out deal using his bird rights. This contract would take him right up into age 38, meaning this 5 year deal would be fully guaranteed and Houston would not receive an out if Cp3 were to unexpectedly retire or fall in injury. This is essentially Cp3's final pay day, so you think he's going to take a paycut even for his buddy LeBron?

So that essentially shuts the door on any scenario where Bron opts out of his contract to become a free agent and walk onto Houston to play with his buddy CP3...cause Houston would have to renounce CP3 (35M cap hold) and his bird rights to have enough cap to offer Bron a contract...and they wouldn't even have enough cap in this scenario to present Bron his true max (35.4M)....essentially costing not only Bron his max, but CP3 as well.

So the ONLY way to bring Bron onto a team with Harden and (a maxed/near-maxed out) CP3 is via trade. Free agency is out of the question. That means Morey HAS to deal with Gilbert to make this a reality.

That's STRIKE 1.

So now lets look at Gilbert and what he's willing to accept in a trade...

Gilbert accepted 5 future picks and a trade exception. Notice how none of those elements attribute towards immediate team salary and as a result, luxury taxes. Houston 2018 1st round picks...they got none. Houston does have a 2018 2nd round pick (46th overall) but owes their 2019 2nd round pick. So in the department of future picks (that may not be impacted by a successful Bron, Harden, CP3 pairing), looks like Houston can provide Gilbert with the necessary future picks it takes to trade for Bron. But then when we get to the "very large" trade exception..."Houston, we have a problem!" The Rockets can't provide Gilbert with a "very large" trade exception because they don't have the cap space to just trade Bron into, unless they renounce the rights to their players and well CP3 would have a problem with that. So they have to send out guaranteed salary in Anderson, Gordon, Tucker, Nene, etc. Anderson HAS to be part of a trade package, cause just Gordon, Tucker and Nene isn't enough outgoing salary to trade Bron for. In fact, if you added up all the guaranteed team salary of Houston (outside of Anderson) then its still not enough to trade for Lebron. Also, Morey can't just S&T some random free agent sitting at home (GeraldGreen2.0) to make the numbers work, cause if he did that then Houston, by rule, is hard-capped at 130M in team salary....meaning they can't go above that number in total team salary at any point during the '18/19 NBA calendar year. A maxed out CP3, Capela, Bron and Harden already accounts for about 125M in total team salary just for those 4. So using Ariza's bird rights won't mean squat cause they have to round out the roster and won't be able to go past 130M. Anyways, back to Anderson...

So you can't stretch Anderson to make Houston's tax bill look better cause he HAS to be used in a trade for Bron...otherwise, there is no trade. And if Anderson gets traded to the Cavs, that means his salary contributes towards team salary (stretched or otherwise) pushing towards a luxury tax bill for the Cavs.

Lets say Bron simply walks off the Cavs, their team salary is still above 101M and that means they're capped out (and it doesn't even take into account that Hood is a RFA and they might have to match offer-sheets to retain him). So is Gilbert willing to spend a luxury tax on a Lebron-less team because of Ryan f***ing Anderson?

That's STRIKE 2.

Bron can use the CP3 opt in and trade to leverage Gilbert into getting something in return for him, but where exactly is the leverage? The only way for Houston to provide cap space for Bron to walk onto is if they renounce CP3, Capela and all their free agents. And still that would only open up roughly 20M in cap space...roughly 15M short of Bron's max. They can stretch Anderson and open up about 12M more in cap space, but they're still roughly 3M short in offering Bron his max. And in doing all this, he's only joining Harden cause CP3, Ariza and Capela had to be renounced. So again, with no true cap space to leverage Gilbert with, how is Bron supposed to CP3 his way to Houston?

That's STRIKE 3.

Bron is OUT for sure....but just not to Houston imho.

Btw, what's the return policy on that crystal ball, abeerstrodamus?

 

Thank you lol. Lebron opting in and forcing them to trade him to Houston? If I were a Gilbert id give Lebron and Houston a big fat f*** you and not trade him. What is Lebron gonna do, hold out? Lol.

And seriously Chris Paul and Capela were the big dogs for Houston... Obviously Paul more so big time and he got hurt. Harden has been a big disappointment in his playoff career.