Lonzo Ball Discussion: Bulls

You can say it: anyone calling to bench Lonzo is stupid and doesn't know anything and should stop talking about basketball immediately.

 

You're missing out.

 

Yeah. Its thrilling as you never know where the balls are coming from. He can hit you when you arent expecting it.

 

It's a Ball Party. A Big Ball Party.

#BBB

 

Watched the game finally... Ball was aggressive in the third, a coast to coast lay in, a pair of shots in the paint with his off hand along with his expected ball movement ability that slick pass to Bogut in traffic. There was that nice block on Jackson on defense. Two plays stood out to me. One was that tap pass to Lopez and the other was that skipping bounce pass to Nance from the top of the key the second he touched it. A player one or two steps ahead of everyone on the floor. Thomas was raving about how Ball controls the game without scoring by dictating the tempo.

 

What took you so long? You wanna be a Big Baller, you gotta have home, away, Sunday, Summer League, training Camp, and every BBB shirt made.

 

ESPN Insider article on Lonzo

Kevin Pelton and Mike Schmitz continue their series on rookies with a close look at Lonzo Ball.

Kevin Pelton: No. 2 overall pick Lonzo Ball was one of the most polarizing draft prospects in recent memory and not merely because of his father's provocative comments. Ball's unusual skill set, featuring both elite passing and pattern recognition as well as shaky shooting and individual defense, divided scouts.

Seven games into Ball's career, we've learned a little more about how those strengths and weaknesses will translate to the NBA game. Let's break down his start and how it compares to what was expected in four key categories.


First up: pick-and-roll play. For a point guard, Ball ran relatively few pick-and-rolls in UCLA's offense -- just 185 all season that produced either a shot by Ball or the player to whom he passed, a trip to the free throw line or a turnover. (By contrast, No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz had 312 in 11 fewer games.)

So far, Ball has played a bit more conventionally in the NBA. His 41.3 direct picks per 100 possessions rank 38th in the league, according to data provided by Second Spectrum. Among the 73 players who have received at least 50 direct picks, Ball's 0.86 points per play on those opportunities ranks 53rd. In particular, Ball has struggled to finish, shooting just 45.5 percent in the paint off pick-and-rolls based on analysis by Second Spectrum.

Mike, what are you seeing from Ball in the pick-and-roll game?

Mike Schmitz: It's no surprise that Ball has had somewhat of a slow start adjusting to the ball-screen-heavy NBA. So far, some teams have tested Ball's range, going under screens and forcing him to beat them from the perimeter. He has had mixed results when teams dare him to shoot but has proven capable enough for several opponents to start fighting over the top, especially after he hits his first shot. When teams fight over, Ball's first instinct has been to speed dribble and pitch back to Brook Lopez or Kyle Kuzma spotting up behind the arc. When he doesn't have that spot-up option, Ball has looked most comfortable throwing basic pocket passes to a slow-rolling Lopez for a patented push shot in the lane or hitting Larry Nance Jr. for an occasional short roll or lob. Having a stretch 4/5 is key for Ball, as he's not quite dynamic enough as a slasher to get downhill and attack a big defender who doesn't have to worry about retreating to a shooter.

Ball's quick pitch-back can be a bit predictable. It gets the ball moving, but you'd like to see him find more ways to put pressure on the rim and collapse the defense, adding more versatility to his playmaking attack. The fact that Lopez, Brandon Ingramand Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are all shooting less than 35 percent from 3 hasn't helped Ball. Kuzma and Jordan Clarkson are the only Lakers shooting better than 35 percent from 3 through seven games, shrinking Ball's already sparse half-court space.

Although a good athlete in space and an excellent finisher at UCLA, Ball has never had a great knack for drawing fouls around the rim, and that has carried over to the NBA so far. Too often he gets knocked off line on his way to the rim, and he can do a better job driving his man into the screen before turning the corner. Adding more skill finishes predicated on deception would also benefit Ball as he continues to get stronger.

Part of his finishing struggles have been due to his lack of a consistent midrange or floater game, especially going right. While 2-point jumpers are shots that defenses clearly want you to take, the fact that he's not yet a consistent threat in those areas allows the big defender to drop deep into the paint without a need to contest until Ball gets to the rim. Ball took just six floaters and eight jumpers inside the arc at UCLA, and he can be seen working on these exact shots before every home game in Staples Center.

To Ball's credit, he has made great strides in these areas since the season began. Against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday he looked much more comfortable using his body to keep his defender on his back, regularly snaking or splitting ball screens to get to the middle of the floor, even knocking down a midrange jumper. This pulled Andre Drummond away from the rim on a few occasions, and Ball was able to change speeds and explode to the rim, once for a finish and once for a dropoff. Becoming more of a threat at the rim and in the paint will pull the second line of defense out of the paint and allow Ball to play more off of hesitations, moving defenders with his eyes.

He may never be an explosive pick-and-roll finisher like John Wall or as savvy as Chris Paul, but the progress Ball has made given his lack of ball-screen experience is encouraging.

Pelton: Next, let's look at Ball ... off the ball. While as you note Ball has done a good job of making opponents pay for going under screens with pull-ups from the perimeter, he's shooting 3-21 (14.3 percent) on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, according to data provided by Second Spectrum. That's a big difference from last season, when Ball shot 50-of-112 (44.6 percent) on catch-and-shoot 3s, via Synergy Sports tracking.

Last year, Kevin O'Connor of the Ringer passed along a front office executive's theory that Ball benefited from the stickier Wilson basketballs used by UCLA, noting that Ball had shot 43.6 percent from 3-point range in games played in 26 games with Wilson basketballs and 34.1 percent in seven games with Nike basketballs. (This did not include Ball's three games in the NCAA tournament.)

Since getting to the NBA, which uses Spalding basketballs with less grip than the ones used at the college level, Ball has shot 10-of-42 (23.8 percent) from 3-point range in the summer league, 2-of-8 (25.0 percent) in preseason and 10-of-35 (28.6 percent) in the regular season -- a total of 22-of-85 (25.9 percent). That's a small sample, but it suggests Ball's 3-point percentage at UCLA may have been misleading.

Do you agree? And what else is Ball contributing when he plays without the ball in his hands?

Schmitz: I'm not ready to blame Spalding for Ball's shooting struggles so far this season. Every player goes through an adjustment period transitioning from NCAA basketballs to the NBA balls -- and the NCAA 3-point line to the NBA 3-point line. I also don't think Ball is any worse because he has unconventional shooting mechanics.

I do, however, think that his 41.2 3-point percentage on 6.1 attempts per 40 minutes at UCLA was a bit misleading. Ball was a streaky shooter at the high school level, splashing consecutive 30-footers in one half and going 0-for-the-field the next.

Although it's not a huge sample, Ball shot 27-of-89 (30.3 percent) from the high school 3-point line in 14 Adidas games in 2015, according to the DraftExpress Database. According to MaxPreps, he was a 36 percent 3-point shooter as a senior at Chino Hills. Ball also really struggled to make shots on UCLA's preseason Australian tour, going 9-of-36 from the field (39.1 percent) and 4-of-21 from 3 (19.0 percent) in three games while experimenting with different mechanics.

He was always much more of a shot maker than a pure shooter, and I figured Ball would hover around the 35 percent mark as a rookie, with some monster shooting nights to balance out the duds. The fact that he's struggling so much off the catch is a bit surprising to me, as I had more questions about his ability to get to pull-ups versus length, especially going to his right. Watching Ball shoot pregame and in live action, I do think that his percentages will normalize and he'll become more reliable. Despite his funky mechanics he still gets excellent rotation, shoots it with good arc and has natural touch. Slow shooting starts are nothing new for Ball, and I believe that's all this is.

At UCLA, he had a lot of success playing off of closeouts, which played a big part in his outrageous 73.2 2-point percentage and the Bruins' tremendous ball movement. Because Ball was so deadly shooting off the catch, defenders regularly ran him off the line and allowed him to unleash his greatest strength -- playing read-and-react basketball against a scrambling defense. Such a dangerous passer on the move, Ball often had a wide open lane for an uncontested finish as defenders retreated for an uncontested finish

So far Lakers opponents have had no reason to run Ball off the 3-point line, and when he has been able to attack a closeout he has either had a defender attached to his hip or a rim protector rotating over, and he has struggled to finish. Making more shots off the catch will really open things up for Ball, and the Lakers can continue to look for different ways to get him going like Steve Alford did at UCLA.

Against the Pistons we started to see more of the contagious passing that Ball's natural style creates, and the Lakers could turn the corner offensively sooner rather than later if that continues. They have other ball handlers and passers who can playmake in a pinch, and getting Ball moving off the ball allows him to play quick-decision basketball while also putting less pressure on his still-developing pick-and-roll game. He's a tremendous cutter and an excellent offensive rebounder for his position, so using Ball more off the ball in quick-hitting actions could be beneficial.

Pelton: So far we've focused on half-court offense, but the transition game is key to Ball's value. Per Synergy Sports, the Bruins ranked 12th among Division I teams in the percentage of their plays that came in transition (22 percent), and no team in the country had both more transition opportunities and scored more points per play (1.11) than UCLA.

The Lakers have been running plenty too. Based on analysis by Second Spectrum, only the Golden State Warriors have more transition chances per 100 possessions. However, the Lakers' efficiency (1.2 points per chance) has been middle of the pack. Can they become more effective in transition?

Schmitz: It's only a matter of time before the Lakers become an even more efficient transition team, especially if they continue to defend the way they have been through seven games. We saw in summer league that it takes time to adjust to playing with Ball -- eyes up and hands ready at all times. Ball empowers teammates by giving it up early, and gives big men incentive to sprint the floor.

While he has shown flashes of his home-run outlet passes -- a Milos Teodosic of the overhand variety -- the Lakers are still adjusting to his "pass you open" transition style. Ball has also had a tendency to be a bit careless with some of his transition feeds in the past, and that has shown up a few times this season.

The Lakers have the personnel to get out and run, especially when they play smaller with Julius Randle and Kuzma occupying the big spots. Ball's "give it up early" mentality also blends well with Luke Walton's more versatile lineups, as guys like Kuzma, Randle, Ingram, Clarkson and Caldwell-Pope can all handle or fill the lanes in transition. They may not be as dangerous with slower big men such as Lopez and Andrew Bogut on the floor, but as Ball proved at UCLA with the slow-twitch Thomas Welsh, he can run with just about anyone, and Lopez does offer a nice secondary break, trail 3 option.

In addition to running the floor harder and giving Ball more targets, knocking down more open 3s will also up their transition efficiency. Ball can hit rim runners and lane fillers no problem, but what made him so effective at UCLA was his ability to get shooters like Bryce Alford, Aaron Holiday, Isaac Hamilton and TJ Leaf wide open looks in stride. Ball can also do a better job of finishing at the rim himself when he does go end to end, as he has struggled a bit to score on his own in the open floor.

Pelton: Let's wrap up by discussing defense. Early in summer-league play, Ball had a hard time keeping any point guard in front of him and was getting picked off by screens too easily. That hasn't seemed to be the same kind of issue during the regular season.

Statistically, Ball's box plus-minus is far better on defense than offense, largely because of his outstanding defensive rebounding -- his 18.5 percent defensive rebound rate is close to the average among power forwards (19.1 percent) and far better than the average for point guards (11.1 percent).

How good has he been subjectively?

Schmitz: I've found that the worries about Ball's defense were far overblown, and that has proven to be true so far this season with the Lakers as a unit defending much better than some anticipated. Ball is never going to be a 94-feet pitbull like Patrick Beverley, but with his positional size and length, excellent anticipation, quick hands and fast-twitch agility he's more than adequate both on and off the ball.

That said, as is the case with most rookie point guards, Lonzo has experienced some growing pains guarding ball screens through seven games. He can do a better job of keeping the ball in the sideline alley in ice situations, and too often allows the opponent to get to his strong hand even when he's angling him weak. Ball can also improve his ability to get skinny over screens, recover versus physicality and keep quicker guards in front when they reject ball screens.

Both Wall and Ish Smith spun Ball around on a couple occasions, but all in all he does a nice job of recovering with length and contesting shots at the rim. He has better feet in small spaces than he gets credit for, and he has held his own containing and contesting when switched onto other players.

Off the ball he is a bit of a mixed bag. Ball is rangy with great instincts but does tend to have occasional lapses, losing track of shooters, falling victim to veteran push-offs or missing a box out as explosive Donovan Mitchell crashes in for a tip dunk. Ball had these up-and-down moments at UCLA as well, but overall he's more active than your average rookie, and the fact that he's an elite positional rebounder covers up most off-ball blunders.

He has tremendous instincts reading the ball off the backboard, and does a great job of using his athleticism and length to tip balls to teammates. Ball may never be a defensive stopper as he's still a bit upright at times and has never been the most physical defender, but he's more than adequate with the tools and instincts to be well above average as he continues to get stronger and gain more experience.

 

The word for today is passive.

Not a good word.

 

I like what Lonzo does but he has nights where he's just not a threat offensively. If he's not a threat, it isnt gong to open up passing lanes and things for everyone else.