I know... That is so long ago isn't it? I still have the Sports Sections from all the Laker Finals wins dating back to 2000.
^when you are 20....no progression IS regression. You don't have to necessarily get worse. Just the fact that you aren't getting significantly better is a concern. The learning curve is particularly steep during your first few seasons before it plateaus. Randle is running out of time if he wants to show glimpses of a star. Russell has about 2-3 years to show he is going to be a star. Its very simple. If you aren't a star/cornerstone player by the age of 24, you are almost certainly never going to be one.
@therealdeal I disagree with your assessment on Julius. 56.8% ---> 63.3% at the rim 24.5% ---> 44.6% from 10 feet to 3pt line That is a MASSIVE improvement. And who expected him to become a reliable 3 pt shooter in 1 year?
Ya, and his rebounding is a massive regression. Whats the point? Is Julius better than last year? yes but only slightly. His main problems are still the same. Still can't shoot comfortably, still doesn't D up, still doesn't understand team concepts on defense, still has the same awareness issues, still is inconsistent. Look at the big picture. He doesn't take enough long shots for the percentage to be that big of a deal.
No, he has not regressed as a rebounder. He's asked to play further away from the basket on offense (doubling his assists) and the frontcourt of Deng/Mozgov are better rebounders than Kobe/Hibbert. (by 1.8 boards) Julius is still an elite rebounder. To think otherwise is silly. He takes 1.5 of those long jumpers per game, and he's only behind Young in efficiency from that area. I'd say that's encouraging and he should be taking more.
Elite rebounder? That's a stretch. He's a good rebounder when he wants to be. That means, when he has an opportunity to grab the ball and push it, he will be motivated to rebound and he usually chases down boards rather boxes out.
Playing further away from the basket hasn't impacted his offensive rebounding much. He's playing basically the same minutes through this season as he did last season and the difference is only 0.3 per game. I'd wager if Kobe was still playing, there'd be a lot more offensive rebounds available for Randle this season. The real hit is the defensive rebounding where he is down 1.8 per game. Deng/Mozgov may be better rebounders than Kobe/Hibbert but that's not saying much. Last season, Kobe was old and relatively small for the SF spot and only averaged 3.7rpg. Hibbert, despite being massive, was never a good rebounder in his career not once hitting 9rpg, inexplicable for someone 7'2" and seeing a good amount of minutes. Deng and Mozgov rank, among qualified players, tied for 98 and tied 66th in rebounds per minute. So Randle isn't exactly battling with fierce rebounders out there. Randle is a solid rebounder without a doubt but I think there is more to the rebounding numbers declining than the reasons listed above. He actually got worse from November (9.4rpg in 27.1mpg) to January (8rpg in 30mpg).
He currently ranks #7 among PF's in rebounding. Whether that's considered elite is debatable. I think that stretch in December where he was recovering from the back injury hurt his stats a bit.
See the thing for me that's keeping Julius from being "elite" in anything is his drive, motivation, and his consistency. I get it, he's young, and he has to learn. But until he does so, I can't really consider him elite in any category until he gets there. He's definitely shown flashes of it, but to be even considered elite, it requires consistency and competency. Right now, it's potential.
Look at the number of shots taken too. He's improving, but not exponentially. I'm one of Julius's biggest supporters on this site. You don't have to convince me of this kid's talent. I can however be objective and say he hasn't grown as much as he probably should have by now in other areas of his game. I'm actually not all that worried about his rebounding, but his defense has not taken a serious leap forward. He has shown just rudimentary improvement in many areas. Look for instance at the growth of Zubac and Ingram. I do think Julius has improved defensively, just not very much. His shooting has improved, but not in areas of need. I don't need him to be a three point bomber yet, but he needs to TAKE more of those shots. His efficiency is improving which is great but he needs to TAKE more shots in order to open the offense up. This isn't unique to Julius. As you can see in the stats D'Angelo has not grown either. Clarkson has pretty obviously regressed playing next to Lou Williams. Those three are supposed to be our building blocks, but they've yet to improve much. It's disappointing.
Julius's December rebounding numbers are his second best f the season. He's lower in January and even lower in February.
Well his assists doubled and most of them are from DHO's. He can't grab offensive boards when he's setting up screen assists at the 3pt line. There's only one ball and if Deng is rebounding 1.7 more than Kobe, then there is 1.7 less rebounding opportunities.
I see your point, but Julius came into the league as a raw player. So he had more holes than anyone on the team. We've seen him improve in many parts of his game, like: - playmaking - midrange shooting - control in paint - finishing with right hand - setting screens (though marginally) And we're all expecting him to simultaneously improve in 20 other areas as well? In one offseason? How is that even remotely possible?
i think the latter is a bit too simplistic. you need to know how many available boards they are, whether the TEAM rebounds better when he's on the floor, etc. http://www.82games.com/1617/16LAL11.HTM http://www.82games.com/1516/15LAL10.HTM a comparison of those numbers suggest his rebounding has regressed to some extent in the past year, on both ends.
He averaged 2.1 offensive rebounds per game and is at 1.8 this year. I'm just saying that if we are discussing the statistical decline, it's fairly negligible here on this end of the court. We are talking about a SF in Deng averaging 5.5rpg and a C in Mozgov averaging 4.9rpg. Neither of whom in the Top 65 in rebounds per minute. I get the math when compared to Kobe/Hibbert last year but in the end, Deng/Moz are not remotely dominating the boards and preventing Randle from doing so. It's hardly an excuse.
I feel like the drive is inside Randle. For me the consistency has taken a little hit after a very strong start to the season. To be fair he did get hurt, he did have a kid and he did get pneumonia. So those are legit reasons for some production inconsistency. It is too bad that his rebounding is down this year, but as tada mentioned he has improved in other areas, specifically in the Draymond Green role of setting guys up in Luke's offense (doubled his assists average). He really does need to take and make more outside shots. Larry Nance is reluctant to do so also.
