Come on man, "probably elite?" TRD posted some stats that looked pretty elite to me. Did you lose a bet or something? Yo Honestly, that was as negative as I can recall you ever being :Randallconfused: I understand your viewpoint, but Randle's work ethic and the way he carries himself are the reasons I think he'll fulfill my expectations.
I said in my original post that it was obviously technically not his rookie season, it was his second but in effect it was his rookie season. I don't think Summer League and about a month to a month and a half or so of practice is really a lot to go on. He's still only a few months removed from college. This last season was more comparable to a rookie season than not. I don't see any real reason how that's not true and how that can be overlooked in evaluating his learning curve. I guess we're going to disagree on that point. I mean I've made it clear that I find Julius more valuable than most players in his draft class for his rebounding prowess because he can do something at an elite level while nobody else in his class really has that yet outside of perhaps Wiggins. Is there any great evidence that either of those guys are better than Julius? You brought their names up so I figure you've got something. Well this is why I want to better define what you mean by cornerstone. I've said he'll be a cornerstone for us in the fact that he'll be a key piece of our young core. He provides something for this team that no one else does: the ability from the 4 spot to rebound at an elite level and push the tempo up the court. I don't think his prospects are any better or worse than any of our kids as far as improving offensively or defensively. Clarkson improved well offensively in his second full season. I don't think it's so far out of the question for Julius to be able to do that. Draymond Green increased his outside shooting ability every season. Here's some numbers: Draymond: 1st year: 32.7 FG% 20.9 3PT% 40.4 TS% at 22 years old 2nd year: 40.7 FG% 33.3 3PT% 49.8 TS% at 23 years old 3rd year: 44.5 FG% 33.7 3PT% 54.0 TS% at 24 years old 4th year: 49.0 FG% 38.8 3PT% 58.7 TS% at 25 years old Julius: 1st year: 33.3 FG% n/a 3PT% 25.8 TS% at 20 years old (14 minute sample size) 2nd year: 42.9 FG% 27.8 3PT% 48.2 TS% at 21 years old Now I know Julius is not the defender that Draymond is and is unlikely to be anything close to that, but I don't see why he can't have that type of growth offensively. In fact Julius has a more natural feel for offense than Draymond does. In fact I find this growth pretty encouraging given that we'll be running a similar system to Dryamond's 3rd year in the league where he showed the most growth. You're comparing him to the entire NBA as a sophomore with slightly more than a year's worth of experience. How does he stack up against his contemporaries? How does he stack up historically at his age? Zach Randolph has a similar build as a PF and he shot just 44.9% his first season in the NBA. Like I said Draymond was under 40% and Kevin Love shot 45.9% from the field his rookie season. For all three of those guys it took them 2-3 years to really find their stride. I'm not really sugarcoating anything I don't think. I think I'm being pretty rational about the way I view Randle. I guess I'm just more optimistic while you think he's not going to develop anymore. I think it's impressive to improve efficiency while maintaining output. If I were running a manufacturing plant that maintained output while improving efficiency I'd say that was a good thing, no? And I'm not sure he's a volume shooter. He had to take a lot of shots last season because... who else would? He still took less shots than Trevor Ariza and Serge Ibaka. In an ideal situation he probably shoots a little less, but I'm not sure last season was an ideal situation for anybody. True. My point is you're delving into his faults, but I'm not reading much in your posts about how valuable he is as an elite level rebounder. And I wouldn't try to deny it. I would also say that 11.3/10.2/1.8 is also undeniably good.
If you anoint him as an elite rebounder after one season, that's your call. I'll say "Probably." BTW, y'all might not want to hear my take on JC.
Real, the Draymond thing is a non-starter. That's like saying, "Dwyane Wade went from 16-4-4 as a rookie to 24-7-5 so Russell might." I mean, he MIGHT, but that's not a strong inductive argument. Draymond's offensive game is a good comparison piece. He's a far better shooter than Randle, but it's his passing on offense that makes him so valuable, and it's his defense that makes him overall so good. Of all the 6'9" players to play 500+ minutes at age 21, Randle has the 39th worst FG% (out of 55, and many of these dudes play SF, playing farther from the basket), and none of the players below him made an ASG. 11th worst eFG%, 10th worst TS%. Among all the 21 year olds to average 8+ rebounds (50 of them), Julius's PPG is 8th worst. His FG% is 6th worst, his eFG% is 5th worst, and his TS% is 7th worst. His rebounding looks awesome. The rest of his game looks really bad. I'll stop there, because I don't want to be any more negative.
What names are we dealing with at 21 years old? Out of curiosity. I understand the advanced stats don't like his efficiency, but he is also one of only 19 players in NBA history to average a double-double at 21 years old. I also don't think Draymond is a much better passer than Julius. I think Julius is a good passer and we'll see it in the new offense. Draymond's passing wasn't great until Kerr came along. I don't think looking at Draymond's stats is too much different from using past players to determine what Julius will be. In fact I think the Dryamond comparison is about as good as we can find. He's wanted to model his game after Green, he's about to play in the same system, and they're similar sizes (Julius is a bit bigger actually). I just have great faith in Julius and his work ethic. For what it's worth Jerry West agrees more with you, but I think for once he might be wrong.
Julius will be fine. Just finished his first full year of basketball in the NBA after sitting out a full year. By all accounts and photos I've seen the guy is hard at work on everything and mainly his shot.
You don't make a strong inductive argument by looking at one player. You can't choose the one you like and go from there. And when you say, "What names are we dealing with?" I wonder what the point is. Will you say he's better than those players? If so, you beg the question. Draymond averaged 4 assists per game in college over his final two seasons. And an Ast/to ratio of about 1.5:1, which is awesome for a Forward in college. Julius averaged 1.4:2:5. Now, the system matters. A lot. And it's why I'm hopeful for Julius. But to be confident in his prospects for success is to go out on a limb.
That's not really that bad of an issue if it's true though and we can re-sign him for a reasonable amount, is it? A really athletic hard working guy who gets you 15/16, 4 boards, 2 assists, 46th pick in the draft. My only real concern about him peaking is his defense, that must improve.
Yeah. And he may improve a lot. He's already a success as a second rounder, but he could be a very good starter.
I understand the point but I still think the comparison holds merit given the circumstances. As for the assist ratio, Julius has said before that his role at Kentucky was dictated to him: score the ball. When he first came on the scene he was a better passer than we expected by a large margin. Draymond played 4 years in college where he was shown how and when to move the ball in their system. Julius has just over a year with almost no system in place. I'm not saying Julius will jump to 4:1 but he can definitely jump to 2:1 instead of 1:1 where he was last season. And beyond that he can improve more given time. I think there's more reason for optimism than you're finding. And I agree on Jordan peaking although I definitely expect him to improve at least a little defensively.
Don't really see how it's going out on a limb. Julius is 21 years old. Just completed his first season in the NBA. Under a horrible head coach. He's shown tremendous growth and improvement. He showed he has passing skills. I just don't see why he can't become a Draymond type player.
Really enjoying the arguments guys. We'll have to wait and see. It is an incredible blessing to be able to sign Luke as a coach. The offensive system he brings will force Julius to improve his game in ways that are productive to bothe the team and himself.
Oh lord, the hair thing again. Is this from that same dude that seems to think he's onto something here as well? Not like Julius's hair is all that long.
Dammit... I thought it was a real video and it's just a silly hair thing. His shot form that they said looked good does not look good. Watch him shoot a three, that's his best looking shot. A lot of the mid-range stuff he twists and turns and pushes the ball.
I'm also not too bullish on Randle and I have said that before many times. People are bullish on him because he is 21. If he was 29 right now, everybody would ask for his head. But people tend to fantasize how everyone will be working on their weaknesses and continue to build on their strengths... very few NBA players make those amazing jumps. Julius can too but he is inefficient on offense and inefficient on defense right now. That is a fact based on the eye test. He has the work ethik and he is physical. But he also has very short arms, can't shoot, has rather low basketball IQ, has no off-hand, can't make correct reads, is sometimes too hesitant and sometimes too out of control... the only thing he does well right now is rebounding. Thats not enough to be a key player in the NBA...unless you can grab 15+ rpg.
