Jaxson Hayes Discussion: He's Back

i'll quibble: by the time DFS got here, he had a pretty substantial record of not being very impactful (this is why i lol'd when the nets were going around asking for three firsts for him), so the leeway he got from both fans and jj was about as deserved as laravia's, and for the same reasons--not past, present--he's willing to do the dirty work on both ends.

laravia has actually been a better player for us than DFS was last year (don't even look at DFS this year), and that's with the bad shooting.

 

Umm arguing that DFS was overrated and not good is one thing but the metrics hate Jake
People give a lot more leeway to guys who are likable (i.e. hustle, look like they give a s***) but I'm really surprised especially if you've been watching games over the last month of how bad Laravia has been. Teams literally do not close out on him on the perimeter. It's not just missing shots but they are playing 5 on 4 defense similar to what teams did to Vando in the playoffs. This isn't good when it's regular season and teams are doing this without the prep time of playoffs.


rapm



lal last year

RAPM

 

ironically, you should be arguing for your favorite player vando to be getting jake's minutes, lol.

anyway, this is the hayes thread, and he is, sadly, our 4th best player this year by the numbers, with smart/ayton/kennard/vando after that.

it's slim pickins.

 

LaRavia shade in the Jaxson thread?

 

What's this stat?

Rui's numbers and Smart's offense are atrocious

Problem is he got outplayed in the playoffs. That's a liability and shortens the rotation. You're pushed to go small even if you don't have the personnel. Ideally you'd have a big or 2 you can play in the playoffs.
He's better this year so maybe he works out in this postseason

I also don't think we solve our center situation this summer. But I'm also not sure Ayton's comes back. He's highly inconsistent and can be outplayed mentally.
I think the playoffs will determine how we approach the center position in the summer

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eh, gobert's been an absolute liability in deep round playoff games many times. lots of times, teams simply don't play bigs in big moments. again, unless they're an allstar.

i'm all in on not paying big for centers unless they're like, jokic. hayes/ayton can get you to where you're playing lebron as draymond center in the closing lineups.

 

Are we ever going to stop talking about the MN series last year? WTF! Reaves is stronger and at a higher level of play this year which along with Luka being in shape and our center situation vastly improved compared to last year, Smart, LaRavia, Kennard and a deeper squad …. which all contributed to us sweeping their a**es THIS year. Same thing with Hayes this season with 10-15lbs more muscle and improved all around game. Eff MN!

 

True, but that's why they have Naz and Randle/Towns. I don't think we have that guy yet. Playing Rui/Bron at the 5 is not ideal. I think Rui is even worse just because he rebounds so little.
Which leads me to think thatmaybe is something we look for in the summer. Maybe we try to pry Collins or someone in that frame

Playoffs are a completely different game than regular season and that one is the most recent. It will stop being talked about after the first series this year.

 

lebron's better at center than randle; he just refuses to accept it, lol. i just think if you have a forward who can rebound and credibly block a shot (like DFS), you can steal minutes--including in end-game situations--with them at center. dantoniball can work in small doses, quite effectively. but never full dantoni.

collins is definitely someone who, could, at least in theory, serve in this capacity. he at least rebounds fairly well. his defense is maybe not where i want it to be for that role, but it's not as bad as advertised.

but yeah, rui's really not ideal at it, and DFS is gone/dead. so right now we only have lebron to play this role, and if lebron's gone next year, we have nobody.

but back to the point: hayes (and ayton) for 20-24mpg at a total salary of 13 million per is probably a wiser use of salary than like, walker kessler at 30+ million per.

 

Ayton was probably promised a starting role and Lakers are keeping that promise to him but I seriously do wonder if Hayes starting might be best for this team.

Hayes just provides more energy right off the bat and can give the Lakers momentum.

On the other hand, Ayton's confidence and demeanor will plummet if he becomes a bench player so you'll have issues there as well.

 

I really don't like center-less basketball for this team because both Luka and Austin are better as P&R ballhandlers than they are in pure isolation.

You don't play center-less basketball for the sake of doing it, you do it because you think it poses some type of advantage. Typically, teams do it because the benefit of playing true 5-out offense outweighs the loss rim protection/rim-running/rebounding and you can mitigate some of the defensive drawbacks by going extremely switch heavy for a few minutes. I don't know if that typical calculation works for us because I don't know that it really juices our offense to put LeBron at the 5. We already have a pretty dominant halfcourt offense when our three guys our playing, the teams that result to small ball are typically the ones who's offense gets a little clunky when they play their traditional center. Luka and Austin are at their best when they can use the threat of the roll-guy to put the dropping defender in limbo, I don't want to take that tool away from them and instead ask them to just beat the switch defender in isolation over and over.

 

He's been great the past couple weeks. Overall, I like what he's brought this season. Bulking up was a game changer for him.

I think he's a better fit with all our passers (Luka, AR, Bron) than DA. He brings consistent effort and motor out there and that is also infectious.

The problem is he doesn't use his athleticism to rebound. He's awful on the glass. There's over 60 players who have played center minutes this year who average more RPG. Can't start someone like that.

I'm not sure where that leaves us moving forward. DA ain't it, but you want a stylistic difference from Jax if you're going to pay to keep him as a high-end backup. Off the rip, that elimiates guys like Claxton. We're looking at a weak FA crop, so the options are: use some of the picks to trade for an upgrade (think those need to go to wing help), run it back with DA (yuck), or find another FA to split the minutes with Jax -- Mitchell Robinson (Buha's been mentioning that one A LOT lately), Robert Williams, Richards, Drummond.

 

i think we dodged a bullet on nic claxton. we may have caught the bullet on mark williams, who is basically ayton with a motor. we've had interest in robinson over time; the knicks are in a bit of salary trouble, and a two-headed center of robinson/hayes would be really good, imo.

though i think the knicks are going to offload towns this summer and try to keep robinson.

the draft night trades will set the stage on what's possible for stuff like this, i think. i just hope the giannis thing doesn't hold everything up.

 

Where does KAT go? Dallas? Kyrie / Christie / Flagg / KAT / Lively is an interesting core.

I still believe Caxton can be an excellent addition. He has been stuck in purgatory in Brooklyn for his whole career. Bring the guy in out of the weather, give him a few PNR partners and a reason to get back to DPOY form and watch out.

As for Hayes, I’m keen to keep him at about 5m per. Good backup big.

 

before chicago fired their bad management, i would have had towns to chicago as a lead pipe lock, lol.

not sure dallas goes for it, though he's a better theoretical fit than AD. i think towns has become kind of radioactive, tbh. the trae young of bigs. like young, i think he's good enough to take a bad team and make them interesting, but add him to a good team and you're looking to subtract quite soon.

like some other folks the forum has been heavily interested in (e.g., herb jones), i think he's been on a sort of undeniable downward trend for too long to call it a blip. like, could he be the guy he was two years ago? maybe. am i paying future firsts to find out? no*.

it's just hard to justify paying him 4X what you pay hayes.


*caveat here is if we could get him with picks without dipping too far into cap space (e.g., vando/knecht/ayton (if he opts in)/picks)

 

Outside of the and1 and helping trap and turnover Sheppard with Bron, I thought he was bad and the worst Laker on the court last night.

Houston is a bad match up for him, his season splits against them will make your eyes bleed.

He couldn't stop fouling and should only be in against Capela.

 

I thought Hayes really struggled against Sengun for the first 3 quarters and it was a tough slog for him. We need a lot more rebounding from him if he is getting minutes.