Wasn't an attack on you. Was reflecting upon my re-thinking the reference to Hibbert being a knucklehead - and the 'no homo' reference just brought it back to focus for me. I was not comparing Hibbert to Ruben Patterson and convicted criminals but was making analogy to the fact that Lakers do not appear to use drug abuse, media based questions as to mental issues, and heart as criteria in making roster moves or keeping players on the payroll. Its about basketball skills and fit. Lawson smells more like a John Lucas than a Roy Tarpley but I think he could be a good reclamation project for someone. But - drinking and driving so many times - wow. Not smart at all aside from the obvious - he could kill someone. Back to the subject - I'd like to see the lakers make a move that lands them a boogie even if that means losing hibbert because I don't see him as the second coming of Mutumbo (though he stayed 4 years, wears 55, and blocks shots) and I do see Boogie as the second coming of Zack Randolph maybe better - which would suit the lakers very well given that Julius likes to get the ball at the elbow and Boogie lives down low and my dream (pipe dream) is to keep Randle, Russell and have Boogie as our core and it would be a work of genius if we got that by being part of a lawson deal. No one will touch lawson at this time.
I'd take a chance on Lawson for a year as a secondary player. No way in heck I'd put Cousins on the Lakers for the max on a long term deal. Lawson has issues with substance that have not shown to effect his game or his teammates. Cousins' issues are for more caustic to a team environment. He will never be part of a true contender regardless of his "stats". If you can't co-exist with Karl (who's had a long list of players with on and off the court issues) you've got some serious issues.
They both seem to be "broken" in some ways. Both talented but raw talent is just part of it. You have to have the right guys mentally. Lawson is a risk because of his off court issues. Cousins is a risk because of how he views himself before everyone else. Think Howard with a sour disposition and a jumper.
Boogie actually takes guys off the dribble more often than you'd expect. He's a pretty agile guy for his size. I'm not opposed to him. I think the Lakers have some pieces that could make sense at the deadline if Boogie/Karl doesn't work. I'm not completely done with Lawson. My only thing is that we give up nothing to get him. Lawson is a tire fire right now who is checking into rehab apparently. There's nothing I'd give up to get him at this point except our Room Exception. Sure, we're looking for more high character guys but we're also looking for talent...
I think we can forget getting Lawson signing here for the Room Exception. 1. We're not viewed as contenders. 2. I don't think he's a big Lakers fan. I still remember this interview from a few years back: That said, I'd take the risk of trading for him as long as we don't give up much. After working over the summer on becoming more of a pass-first PG, he was 1 of only 2 PG's who averaged 10 APG for much of last season. He's on a very reasonable contract for the production he brings. It takes s ton of pressure off of Russell to come in and be our starting PG right out of the gates. I'm sure the FO still has Boogie in their sights, if we can get Lawson back on the court producing, we'd have the guy it seems like Karl wants the most. There are plenty of reasons to not trade for Lawson, but I think the pros outweigh the cons here.
I think I disagreed with every single point made in this post, depending on your definition of secondary player. If you mean backup, Ty is easily a top 10 PG in the league. I believe Russell will be a star 1 day, but the Russell we've seen so far is outclassed by Lawson in every aspect of the game(atleast on the court). As for Boogie, we're talking about the best C in the NBA unless AD plays C this season. He definitely has some issues, but I don't think it's as bad as you make it seem. I don't think Boogie is the reason the Kings can't win, but I do think all of the losing is contributing to Boogies anger issues. A change of scenery, especially if it provides a winning environment could do wonders for Cousins. As far as that max contract you mentioned, he's locked into it for 3 more seasons and it's about 16M per season. Factor in the huge conracts coming next summer and after, and Cousins becomes a bargain. If Hibbert has a season like his good years in Indy, someone will be offering him a max deal next summer starting at atleast 25M. I'll take Boogie at 16M all day every day.
You won't come close to convincing me on Cousins. I felt the same way with Howard. You cannot change the "me" attitude and it's the cancer that has kept Howard where he is. Cousin's has it even worse. WTS. I believe ownership wants him bad and I wouldn't be surprised if we ship out a younger or two for him before the deadline. I think we will get to see first hand who's right in the next few years.... unfortunately. I skipped the Howard season because I detest him at the molecular level. I feel the same about Cousins. Everything about him is "non team".
I'd love to see the "math" on this projection or is it a "gut" feeling? That would be a 20+ win jump with a younger team with basically 4 new starters (kobe's injury). Statistically there is no base set for Russell, Randle, Brown and Nance against this level of competition. Black and Clarkson have very limited data sets as well. Did you run a standard deviation? A complete guess for me would be 32 to 38 wins if Kobe stays healthy and the rookies develop as hoped. That's around 10 more wins. Jumping more than that is pretty rare.
I understand your point was being made about Cousins, but the bolded copy (my italics) in your post...... for the WIN!!
I would also guess around 36-38 wins if Kobe is relatively healthy. Playing .500 ball would be amazing really.
If you look at the trending on stats with Ty Lawson, I think you would say his career is headed in the wrong direction since he arrived in the NBA: http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4000/ty-lawson Despite that fact that he's 5'11", and not white, I see no compelling reason at all why the Lakers would want him. This is just for clicks.
There's no standard deviation involved in this method. It's two different methods that take into account pretty different info. How many games will the player play? How many MPG will the player play? At what position will the player play most of his minutes? Will that player have a significantly different role? How many points is that player likely to contribute to the team's overall points scored per minute on the court? How many points is that player likely to contribute to the team's overall points allowed per minute on the court? How many Win Shares will the player likely generate per minute on the court? Those are all stats that go into these two measures. There's no projection without intuition, but saying that wins/loses are a "gut" feeling is pretty different from this method, at least as most people use the phrase "'gut' feeling." For instance, my gut feeling is that Kobe will play more than 1100 minutes, but that's what the projections suggest, so that's what I went with. Moreover, Kobe's overall positive contributions to the team will be, by the projections, better than only those of Sacre, J. Brown, and A. Brown. From a gut point of view, I think Jabari Brown could be a better player than Nick Young this year, too.
Mayber, Sirron, but I love seeing a PG who can score 15.2 on 12.3 shots a game while handing out 9.6 assists vs. 2.5 TO. That's pretty awesome. Almost a 15/10 double double with a nearly 4:1 ast/to ratio. As much as I don't like the guy, he has some serious game.
I got it. I thought you had a mathematical projection going. Differentiating variables for this season are off the chart. How do the rookies play? Does Kobe look like Kobe and for how long? Does Hibbert recover or implode? Does Williams produce the same numbers with a lesser team? Is Clarkson the first half or second half Clarkson? For a predictive analysis the standard deviation would be in the ridiculous range.... 35 wins with a SD of 15 or something like that. If it's anything over 32 that's quite a bit of progress. Over 35 and it would be a great year. Over 40 and it's would be historic I believe. Not too many teams (guessing here) have had 20+ game turnarounds year over year.
I don't disagree that he has game, but he's trending in the wrong direction for being so young I don't trade for him because: Efficiency on FG%, 3P%, and FT% is down. He has an alcohol issue We have a young star potential PG at the same position that needs developmental time like Clarkson did Mutiny on B Shaw Assists are great, but I don't see the upside of pairing him with our kids unless we are simply stockpiling assets. If that's the case and he bombs, we're stuck with him if no one wants him in December once we can trade him. I personally think we are better off not pursuing an undersized PG with declining efficiency with admitted substance abuse issues.
I'm not on the Lawson train. I think good stats belie his actual impact on and off the court. moreover, if he's going to be a reclamation project, that has to happen in a place closer to winning big. I get Houston's interest; I don't see la's.
His trends have a number of influencers. The quality of his teammates has changed in that time frame as has the system he's played in. Injuries and the off the court stuff is there definitely too. Depending on what we give up I'd take him to start early in the season to give Russell a break from the LA pressure. Lawson himself was brought along slowly off the bench in his first 2 years and I actually think it would be best for Russell too.
