Russell Westbrick Discussion: Clipper Gonna Clip

how is max speed calculated? i'd like to see the full data set, too, of course.

and yes, it matches the eye test (he's slower), so it's easier to swallow, but maybe it over-pronounces the effect. our general offensive stagnation (lebron dribble offense), for example, could drop "max speed" depending on how it's measured.

i don't think the stat is meaningless, but i need a lot of context.

edit: svtzr beat me to it in a way.

and he's dead on about effort. probably the 10th time in this thread i'm saying how disappointed i am that the consummate warrior just mailed in most of last year. ugh. never felt that way about kobe. even old kobe who "conserved energy".

 

But … but … Cranjis!, scrubs.

 

i actually agree that cranjis knows his stuff. i just think there's also evidence he doesn't know all the stuff.

 

Cranji is a great follow. But like everyone he isn’t 100% right about everything 100% of the time. He also has a blind spot in that his whole livelihood is data and that means sometimes he is trying to slay windmills by looking at obscure data like max speed.

This to me is just pushing a narrative on why Westbrook failed last season. It’s much simpler than that, he didn’t put in a enough effort and he didn’t change enough of his game to he successful. The effort is on him, the sacrifice of his game is on him, Lebron and our coaching staff.

 

Is this the cause or the effect: Lebron dribble offense is the break the glass type ideally reserved for grind out situations like playoff games where defenses are at their best.
For the Lakers this year you can't separate it from the fact that the personnel was just not there to run a competent offense.
!) Westbrick athletic regression and lack of shooting has given him reverse gravity which bogs down your whole offense
2) This was aggravated by AD's inexplicable shooting regression (big men typically get better with age shooting and he's been a great FT shooter: he should be a 40% 3 pt shooting big man but has become Rudy Gobert)
3) MOre injuries: THT variance last year was in large part due to a bunch of injuries, Nunn injury
4) Just an overall lack of talent: Stanley Johnson/Reaves/THT/Monk - that is not a great foursome but this was significantly better then Isiah Thomas, Bradley, etc
5) Coaching weirdness: Fizdale being overrule by Vogel on offense didn't help

 

I think this is Synergy data. This matches the eye test well and there is no reason expectation considering he's on the wrong side of 30 that this will change.
They have to dump him or this is another lost season in the making: you can hire the right coach, get lucky in the second round again, and get a decent pickup in FA but he's a negative player now

 

I’m not a fan of Lebron ball. It works, but it works because Lebron is an all time great with an all time athletic combination of power, speed, strength and height and with the best longevity of anyone outside the Cap and Malone.

Just like Kobe gets criticism for potentially winning more rings if he had shared the ball better and taken less difficult shots. I think Lebron probably wins more rings if he allows other players to run the offence at times and focuses more on finishing plays rather than controlling them all.

 

Doubtful, I think Lebron was the better player but the Kobe criticism really only applied to the Shaq years and they had a 3 peat. The team was constructed for him to be the only wing scorer on his next two title teams. If the team builds their team with a strong 2 way interior players and 3 and D types wings and guards, I think it's hard to blame the player for gunning.

With Lebron he's more of swiss army knife. The conundrum of his career is two fold: he had by the far the worst teammates of any GOAT candidate for the first 7 years of his career and even on his talented teams he has always been the best PG. So even if he ran plenty off ball action with guys like Kyrie being the initiator, coaches will always put him in the lead spot. Hard to blame them as his teams in the playoffs have done really well with him being lead. I mean in the Bubble when Bam took away all the pretty AD plays it ended up in slug fest between Butler and Lebron. Lebron won that one fairly easily in comparison to the rouble this Boston team had with him

 

My apologies. I realized this immediately after and tried to edit it with asterisks and it wouldn't let me. I tried repeatedly, then gave up.

Oddly I was able to today. Of course I will be more careful in the future and abide by these guidelines...

 

For me, what they wind up doing with Westbrook is the 3rd clog on their impending success next season. I know it is easy to say it is the most important problem to address because of what he is getting paid, his fit, his obvious decline, etc; but it isn't. Important sure, but I would argue that his salary and lack of trade value correlating to what #2 is (getting the necessary role players around LBJ and AD) is more of the reason it is so high, than what Hamm is magically going to get him to change into. I like the hire and the seriousness of his tone, but I dont think any coach is going to make him a plus player on our roster that has James needing the ball in his hands and what #1 clearly is....

#1, without any doubt whatsoever, is in fact Anthony Davis. Can he stay healthy and return to form as being mentioned as one of the best 5 players in the NBA. If he doesn't then it really matters little what we get out of Russell Westbrook.

AD has played 70+ games in a regular season TWICE in his 10-year career. His three-point shooting has fallen off completely the last two injury-filled campaigns where he has shot a meager 23% from distance in those combined 76 games he has dressed up for. After a 3-year stretch of 33.5% and averaging almost one make per game, it completely bottomed out last season (.3 per game, 19%). Across the board with his scoring, defense, almost everything he hasn't remotely been the same player, obviously the biggest deterrent being his ability to stay healthy.

With his unique talent and still being young enough (doesn't turn 30 until the new year- Feb) he should be one of the best big men night in and night out in the NBA. For us to have ANY chance of competing he has to return to form and stay healthy....period.

#2 is finding players that fit the new NBA and that is long stretch wings that can shoot and compliment our two stars (notice I leave RW completely out of this argument). We currently have ZERO on our roster. No offense to Stanley Johnson and Wenyen Gabriel, but neither are guys you would want in your 8 or 10 man rotation. Austin Reeves is the closest thing we have on the roster, but even he is barely 6 ft 5 and isn't a particularly good shooter. If I were him, I would be shooting all summer and try and at least get respectable there (shot 31.7%) because it more than anything will determine if he is going to be part of that 8/10 mix, especially if his attempts are going to be 4+ times a game like last season.

If Westbrook stays, then the Lakers have to make three hard decisions immediately IMO and that means saying bye to all three of Kendrick Nunn, Talen-Horton Tucker and yes, Malik Monk and that is unfortunate when I would rather have any of them on my roster next season than RW. But the truth is, THT doesn't fit this offense anymore than RW does, is a limited defender because of his lack of size and is almost as terrible a shooter (perhaps worse). Sure he has upside and is only 21 years old, but he along with Nunn are your only trade chips to hopefully get one of those type of players you desperately need. Nunn, assuming he is healthy; would be a welcomed addition to the bench if he even came close to resembling the player he was his first two seasons in Miami- averaging 15ppg, making 2 threes a game at a 36% clip and hitting 90% of his free-throws in less than 30 minutes per game. But it is a luxury we simply can't afford because he is short in stature, not a plus defender and isn't taking the ball out of LBJ or RW's hands at the point. Lakers can find their 3rd PG elsewhere...

And that leaves Monk, who did average 2 3PM a game, shot close to 40% in doing so (.391) but also is undersized and a defensive liability. A team in desperate need of length and wings can't spend their MLE on such a player. Not that he will take it anyways, as he is likely getting twice that somewhere based on his athletic ability, age (24) and shooting alone...

Personally, I dont know which is more depressing; the fact that the Lakers traded away almost all of the players who fit the type of player(s) we desperately need at the moment (or simply were to cheap to re-sign, et all Caruso) for a player who doesn't bring any of those qualities to the table or the fact that we have to trade (or can't bring back) the three guys who bring youth and some upside and would fit a team who had a couple, three of those type of players they aren't.......because you can't trade the player who you threw it all away for....

If Hamm and the Lakers are serious about riding it out with RW on his final season (basically continuing to try and put a square peg in a round hole IMO) then how do we use a meager 6.3 million MLE, a young player who has lost quite a bit of his luster and a point guard who didn't play a minute of it in a trade and cough* cough* minimum salary offers to make this work? And do it all WITHOUT trading away any of your future first round picks????

An AD return to form is a must, but even then I find the task nothing short of impossible....

 

Like the post. To nit pick … Reaves is closer to 6’6” than 6’5” and Johnson especially, and Gabriel hopefully ought to be decent off the bench. We don’t have a lot of options here because as you mention Westbrook’s salary.

 

Hmmmm, I guess mine eyes weren’t failing me when I stated here a few days back about his declining explosiveness.

 

WB is garbage.

I go on both LG and LB.

WB has like 4 posters defending him on both sites.

Point? Ship his a** out. Consensus is strong on this one.

 

hahaha :THT Heart Hands:

 

Great post.
Agree with most of it. AD and the Westbrook trade are on point.

Where I think it's arguable is with Monk. He does provide spacing and shooting that we desperately need with our big 2(or 3). I think his defense (in)ability can be mitigated with a proper scheme.
I think him, Stan and Gabriel are not great in an ideal roster. But considering our context and lack of flexibility, I think we need to ride with them, with or without a Russ trade.

Another thing is that we should do a SWOT analysis on our roster. One of our strengths is that we have 3-max players. Not many teams have it so we need to double down on it in our game plan. We need the 3 of them to have max numbers and that's the only way this can make sense.
I really don't see a way where we can win a title with this personnel, but our only goal has to be to make the best with what we have. So we can't expect any other player from 4-15 to do big strides or carry the load. We need our 3 max players to be dominant throughout all game everytime they are on the court.
That means Russ and LeBron averaging a near triple double and AD a 25/8. How? Well, that's on the coaching staff to figure it out and whoever had the idea to do that dumb trade.
I think it starts with defense as it opens the whole floor and makes it easy for them. Actually, the 3 of them thrive in open court, that's where they are at their best. So we need to play that way. If they are old or unhealthy, reduce their minutes and do load management, but if they're to be dominant, they need to play with that pace.
I think we need to defend and play as much in transition as possible. In half court there's not much you can do with those 3 because they all need the paint, so you have to find ways to open it for them. P&R between LeBron and AD is deadly so I wouldn't mind running it to exhaustion.
In the end, it all starts with making an effort, physically (in defense and running) and mentally (playing the way it suits the team and not what they think it's best for them + caring about winning. So Team over Me).

I would be shocked if the three of them would actually change this much on their approach

 

I have a strong feeling that these posters value aggressive dunks and postures thereafter as an important part of the game. I don't.

 

This is a great post. I’ve spoken at length about how we need to get more out of Westbrook, how Lebron was only playing one side of the ball and how AD being injured and/or uninterested meant we had lost our DPOY candidate that broke small ball.

I agree with you that if we’re going to have any success, we need those three firing. It starts with AD being healthy as I believe both Westbrook and Lebron will play well with him in pick and rolls. Then it moves to splitting time on the court between Westbrook and Lebron so they can both run the offence. And probably most importantly, it’s going to take a ton of defensive effort by everyone.

 

I have come to the conclusion that most don't know what they are watching.

 

I don’t believe there are FOUR. They are all the same poster.

 

LOL.

Naw, they are all very different.