Brandon Ingram Discussion: He Is Who We Thought He Could Be

Discussion in 'NBA Discussion' started by Lakers2015, Jun 23, 2016.

  1. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    :Laugh:
     
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  2. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    Trodgers I've always admitted AD is far better at defense than BI... but defensive rating systems are far from an exact science at this point.

    Utah is a good defensive team and BI put up 35 and 49 against them in consecutive games.
    If you put the five best offensive specialists vs. the five best defensive specialists in a game, the offensive specialists would crush them.
    (Hard to do because there is some overlap in those categories)

    I watched the game last night... BI wasn't AD or even Dwight or JaVale... but he was active on defense and disturbed a lot of shots with his length.
    I also believe he is instructed to stay out of foul trouble because he's too crucial to them offensively to guard people too tightly as he was earlier in the season.
     
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  3. 432J

    432J - Lakers All Star -

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    love what BI is doing in NO

    we would not have seen this version of BI had he still been a laker. he showed flashes out of it last season but right now he's the featured weapon in NO and that's why he's thriving
     
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  4. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    I mostly agree with everything you've said here. I think it's pretty obvious that something is lacking BI's defensive game, and I also think he's a below average defender for his position. I gave the detailed breakdown of his offensive game. Being at close to 90 as a Big - especially from someone as slender as him - is awesome. I think he's going to be an All-Star.

    I should dig out my projections on him. I made them as soon as he was drafted, and nothing I've seen from him changes the overall projection - a career 20 PPG scorer whose shot would develop.

    My position on the young guys is complicated. I hated the Ball pick. I loved Russ and Ingram. I didn't like Kuzma on that team, but he probably fits here on this team. I think Zubac was an inspired pick. But once you drafted Ball, that created momentum. Moving Russ made some sense, but I think that was terribly handled by Magic in particular. I wouldn't have traded Russ, but I wouldn't have taken Ball either.

    Once Russ was gone and LBJ lands, it's clear - sell out for a W. And AD gives the team a chance to compete for years after James retires.

    All that's to say, I'd be thrilled to watch Russ and Ingram playing in the P&G. They're my favorite players since Kobe. They're the only players I'll watch at all, in fact.
     
  5. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    Luka's DRPM is worse than Ingram's... yet no one here would argue that Luka's a game changing player.

    Obviously his superior passing abilities take him to the next level as does aging LBJ's.

    If you fashioned a team from the best DRPM list with a negative ORPM and put them against the best ORPM with a negative DRPM you'd get something like this using ESPN's positions

    Top DRPM players with negative ORPM

    Alex Caruso SG
    Kris Dunn PG
    Tobias Harris SF
    Wendell Carter Jr C
    Richaun Holmes PF

    Top ORPM players with negative DRPM

    Devin Booker SG
    Trae Young PG
    Luka Doncic SF
    Karl Anthony Towns C
    Jabari Parker PF

    The ORPM players would destroy the DRPM players... yet the weight for both ratings is the same. I think offense should be given more weight as great offensive players have more impact than great defensive players.

    This is why I take these advanced defensive stats with a huge grain of salt.

    Maybe in ten years they will come closer to matching reality.

    But I would love to see that game more than the all star game... maybe the defensive team would surprise me.
     
  6. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    Luka vs Ingram is a blowout.
     
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  7. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    How did "defense wins championships" come to be an accepted truism in the NBA, SM? Acknowledging good to great offense needed too.
     
  8. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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  9. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    You brought him up. It’s not a name you want in this thread.
     
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  10. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    The discussion was about how Ingram had a bad DRPM.

    I simply pointed out that LBJ was rated the best defender and it perhaps isn't a perfected stat and the best criteria by which to rate a player.
     
  11. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    Lebron has played much better on that end this year.

    anyway, I don’t love any defensive metric that much. But it’s hard to find one that speaks favorably for Ingram.

    surprised me is all. He should be better there, in theory.
     
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  12. Sentient Meat

    Sentient Meat - Rookie -

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    He's still clumsy and underdeveloped compared to Luka, AD or LBJ

    If you think his body is fully matured then you'd think this is ceiling... if you think it isn't... then maybe he has a little more improvement coming his way.

    At the beginning of the season, he kept getting into foul trouble due to his weakness and clumsiness. On a team where he wasn't the focal point this wouldn't matter too much. However, it's necessary for him to stay in the game on this team.

    I noticed he's become better at staying in the game and I think that's because he's not challenging as much on defense... but I'm thinking that's more because of coaching rather than a lack of effort

    My prediction is that when Zion comes back he will be better at defense and fall into the low twenties for scoring because he won't be as crucial for them on offense.

    LBJ has been better but he's not the best defender in the league.
     
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  13. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff - Lakers Legend -

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    I was impressed how smooth his highlights looked. Not as herky jerky as when he was here. You knew it would come.

    I think everyone will end up looking at this trade as a win win down the road. The Pelicans reloaded just fine and have additional picks as well.

    Glad to see the former Lakers doing well. I hope Lavar is muzzled forever, but I bet that's over starting next year when his youngest gets drafted.
     
  14. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    ^^^ and Lonzo up for extending or being traded.
     
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  15. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    That's DRPM.
    Hold on. The discussion is not about a bad DRPM. It’s about three bad defensive metrics. DRPM, Drtg, and D-PIPM.

    I’ll dig into the “AD losing” and “five best” stuff today, but you’ve got to give and take. Do you know of any defensive metric at all where BI is good?
     
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  16. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    AD vs. BI - Losing

    Gross Metrics
    AD has a career 46.2 win% in games he has played - prior to this year. But his teams are also 33.6% winners without him. That's an average of 10.4 wins per 82 games provided by AD if you like those gross metrics.
    In BI's best season, his team won 45.2% of their games when he played. They won 40% of games without him. In his career, his teams are 39.6% winners, but those teams are also 38.3% without him. That's a difference of 1.0 wins per 82 games provided by BI.


    Win Shares
    If you like Win Shares, AD has never posted below 6.1, has been at 10+ four times (9.5 a fifth), and he's on pace for double digits again.
    Ingram hadn't posted above 2.8 WS prior to this season. He's on pace for 7, so we'll see where he ends up.

    AD's best teammates by season, WS:
    Ryan Anderson 6.5
    Al-Farouq Aminu 3.1
    Omer Asik 5.0
    Ryan Anderson 3.9
    Jrue Holiday 3.8
    Jrue Holiday 7.1
    Julius Randle 6.1

    This season, Ingram's at 3.8, and Jaxson Hayes 2.8 and JJ Redick 2.7 are next, so things are looking comparable. Hayes and Redick are on pace for 5.4 each, which would give BI two teammates right in the middle of that mix, tying for fourth among the nine players listed there.

    Thoughts
    AD is not a big winner in his career. That's undeniable. But he makes a massive difference to his team's success. That seems undeniable, too. Ingram is walking a good line right now, but he's a huge loser, and he hasn't made much difference to his team's win percentage. By the way, this season, the Pelicans are better (win% wise) without him.
     
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  17. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    DRPM vs. ORPM Teams

    Negative DRPM / Best Offensive Player
    PG: Trae Young 10-32
    SG: Devin Booker 17-24
    SF: Luka Doncic 27-15
    PF: Jabari Parker 10-32
    C: KAT 15-26
    Cumulative Record: 79-129


    Negative ORPM / Best Defensive Player
    PG: Kris Dunn 15-28 / Patrick Beverley 29-13
    SG: Alex Caruso 33-8 / Gary Harris 29-12
    SF: Tobias Harris 27-16
    PF: Domantas Sabonis 27-15
    C: Marc Gasol 27-14
    129-80 (or 139-69 if you limit it to 30+ MPG - note that no one in the first team played below 30 MPG)

    So, if you want to talk about winners, you want that second team.
     
  18. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    my fear with ingram was that for him to look his best, your team had to be a bad one. this is because he needed the ball a lot to be successful, and i didn't think he was good enough to warrant that. now, if zion ends up being able to be effective without the ball in his hands, maybe it works out in NO. but if both need the ball, zion's probably going to be the one you want to give it to. then what happens? does ingram slot in as a secondary playmaker and scorer? again, if he does, great. if not...yikes. add in that he's still not a good defender, and i'm just not wringing my hands over it.

    well, that and...we got AD.
     
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  19. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    sabonis has bad offensive numbers?
     
  20. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    His ORPM is -0.02. I think DRPM (and ORPM) are the least plausible of these metrics, by the way. He doesn't light it up offensively, but he's efficient, and he's a good passer for a big. Maybe it's his lack of threes.

    He's third in D-PIPM among Centers with at least 1000 minutes played, and he's also third among those Centers in O-PIPM. The two ahead of him are:
    O-PIPM: Gobert, Embiid
    D-PIPM: Gobert, Brook Lopez

    That list surely passes the laugh test.
     
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