That's a great post @vasashi17 with a lot of very valid points. I think the only part I disagree with is that Randle would be Dallas' contingency plan because, at this time, I don't know what plan would take precedence. They can't realistically believe they have any shot at Lebron, George or even Boogie. On paper Randle just makes sense as their top priority due to the realism in obtaining him. That said, if they draft a PF like Marvin Bagley or Jaren Jackson Jr., then that could very well make them less likely to be at Randle's doorstep at 12:01am when free agency starts and he then becomes a contingency plan in the absence of addressing other needs.
@EddieEddie Thanks bud... You clearly know the cap and it's intricacies and I love discussing stuff like that so I totally understood where you're coming from and I agree that Dallas is probably our most likely competitor in bidding for Jules's services. Also, I'm calling it a contigency based off of what the Mavs have done in free agency as of late and recently there was a round table of Mavs beat writers explaining what their dream summer would be. Jules name came up once and none of these Mavs beat writers had him in their ideal dream lineups or as their primary targets. Either thats a brilliant smokescreen, or they legit value RFAs like Capela and Gordon more.
I think a lot for Dallas hinges on what they do in the draft. Honestly, thinking about it, if they do draft a PF with a Top 3 pick like Jackson Jr. or Bagley, it would make more sense for them to aggressively push for a Clint Capela. The Rockets will say they have every intention of re-signing Capela but when faced with a big time offer sheet, it's easier said than done. If they re-sign Chris Paul to a massive extension, they are looking at a hugeeeee payroll when you factor in Harden's massive contract, Anderson, Gordon etc. - while having to fill other needs (they have other key free agents). An aggressive offer could very well pry Capela away. Between DSJ, Barnes, Capela, Jackson Jr/Bagley, suddenly the Mavs actually have something brewing. As such, the Lakers should be rooting for Dallas in the NBA lottery. Well maybe for them to get #2 or #3. If they get #1 and draft Ayton, then never mind with the Capela talk.
It's because you want so much for everyone to agree that he's not worth more than 15mil because that's what you're happy with that you go overboard to detract from the value he has for this team. A lot of us would be happy with that too but we look around the league and see lesser players getting a lot more so we're just saying it's likely unrealistic. And if he likely gets an offer of 20-22 from Cuban but hopefully will take less all the way down to 17-18 the Lakers aren't going to feel it's a bad deal and can't wait to trade him. I brought up yesterday he bounced guys around all year for us .... is our one Ron Artest / MWP tough guy on the team that likes the contact and played in all 82 games this year for us. Rather than acknowledge that's valuable as we're always grumping here that we have a bunch of soft players who get injured and aren't available ... you instead mention it with the big BUT ... you know he has that medical history where he missed a whole year. No **** his leg was broken. That was 4 years ago and he's been very healthy since. Yesterday I put in red letters this, "I'm just maintaining if they wind up having to pay 18 say .... that with the expected improvement year to year and his uniqueness in the league and on this roster .... that is still a bargain." To which you quickly came back with, "I disagree with everything in red. 18M is not a bargain. 12M is a bargain." Really? I get you don't like 18 but you also disagree with he can be expected to continue to improve every year and he's very unique in the league and on our team? 12M would be a steal and also impossible. 15M for an IMPROVED Julius over and above the jump he made this year, just like we expect improved Zo, BI, Kuzma, Hart..... would also be a steal. Randle should not be expected to sign for 15 or he's just greedy now. 17-18M if we can swing that home town discount from him if he gets offered 20 - 22 or more is not a bad and unattractive deal for Julius if we want to keep him on the Lakers. He's giving up 12-16M over the contract he was offered. If no one offers that much then fantastic for us.
I honestly can see Dallas throwing a wrench into the far-fetched Bron to Houston path rather than Bron to LA path. Hypothetically, if Dallas wanted to play the role of cap hooligans, then throwing max money at Capela (25M) means Bron to Houston is all but dead via free agency. The only way Bron to Houston works is if Gilbert is willing to swallow a salary dump (Anderson, Gordon) and tax bill to match for a non-Lebron roster. If Houston doesn't match a Capela offer sheet and allows him to walk then Bron is essentially coming to a team that is missing a vital defensive component. Also It only leaves roughly 23M for Bron, CP3 and Ariza to split between. Let's say for some reason Gilbert accepts a Houston salary dump after Houston matches a max offer sheet for Capela, then Houston is in for a ridiculous tax bill. Capela at 25M max + Bron 35.6M player opted in final year + 45M in team salary including Harden at 30M...means you're already sitting at 106M in team salary for 8 players without CP3 and Ariza. The luxury tax threshold is at 123M. So you would need to divvy 17M between CP3 and Ariza to avoid a tax hit...but that would still put the roster at only 10 players total (2 of which are nonguaranteed contracts at a combined 2.7M which they can further make available to CP3 and Ariza, but why waive cheap labor when you're already projected to be over the cap?). All Houston has is the 46th overall pick, vet mins and the tax-paying MLE to round out roughly 5 more bodies to the roster. However, that's assuming that all Gilbert took back in the salary dump for Bron was Anderson and Gordon. I'm sure Gilbert would want some picks....does he accept future 1st round picks from Houston knowing that they will probably be really low IF Bron, Capela, Harden and CP3 become a reality. Does the 46th pick get a salary dump done? Does 17M split between Cp3 and Ariza work for them dudes to avoid a tax bill for the new Houston owner? If not, then how much is Fertitta willing to throw out in taxes after he just spent a grip to buy the team in the first place? Meanwhile, stretching Deng and having Bron and PG shed roughly 5M from their combined true maxes (61M vs 66M) allows us to not only keep Jules, but match even a max offer sheet of 25M. Less hoops to jump through and we still have all our youth (10 players in team salary w/o Bron and George) and the 25th and 47th overall picks in this draft. Not to mention the 4.8M Room exception. Dallas has more of an opportunity to meddle and hurt Houston than us. FYI: Kanter (2nd leading offensive rebounder in the league only behind fellow 'stache brother Adams) is anticipating that he will opt out and become a UFA to join a strong frontline list of free agents this summer. Yet another target for other teams to focus on while they glance away from Jules.
Listen bud, I want Jules on the roster as much as you do. But I want him at the right price. But my price point is the way that I personally evaluate his talent (nba achievements, league leader in stats recorded, etc). I'm not saying that my talent evaluation is the be all end all...I just would be comfortable with Jules at a particular price point. Our talent evaluation and thresholds are different. There's nothing really more to say on it. But you are aware at how players get evaluated....the larger salary normally means more scrutiny. Jules at 12M is a great deal, but when Bullyius has his Foolius moments, you can look to his salary and say, I got a larger theshold for it cause he's not paid like a pseudo star, rather an accomplished role player. But the more that salary moves towards 20M, the more scrutiny we give him and now suddenly he's trade fodder...its inevitable. Fans keep pointing to other players and what other teams did in offering them those contracts. If those franchises aren't legit title contenders then I don't want to hear it. I'm sure your folks told you about certain people jumping off a cliff, well would you? Its a copy cat league, but do you really want to copy cat the wrong franchises? Each market has been different, so till we see this summer's salaries, we don't know how much is fair and how much is a bargain for Jules. But we do know what the cap is set at...101M and if Jules is taking roughly 20-25% of it, then I'm not comfortable with that. For every Noah, Mozgov, Porter, Parsons contract that people want to bring up to justify Jules getting paid, I can bring you all-star and blocking leader AD's contract or soon to be DPOY Rudy Gobert's contract and tell you Jules ain't even on that level so why pay him that much? I'm not looking at bad examples (bad contracts and bad teams) as justification for paying Jules...lets look to the better teams and the more cost efficient contracts as a justification in paying Jules the fair amount. When people felt Pau had gone soft, they looked to his salary and thought, he's gotta give more help to Kob cause he's paid like a 2nd star. Then it was year after year of nonstop trade rumors and this was after a failed trade for CP3 (a star we thought that could better help Kobe and from the looks of what the Harden CP3 pairing is doing in Houston, IMHO it would have been a solid backcourt pairing). Folks compared Nance to Jules nonstop this last season, but imagine the hate Nance would get if he was paid double than Jules (8 vs 4) compared to what he was actually paid, which was about half of what Jules got paid (1.4 vs 4). Actually think of the hate Jules got at 4M this season. Now multiply it by 4 or 5 if he continues to frustrate the fan base. Wanting him back at a lower price point is just a feel good way of going about it. Durant took less than the max to fit in Livingston and Iguodala. Bron has taken less in Miami and his return to Cleveland to make the cap restrictions work in order to field a better team. PG seemed to shrug off the supermax and still wanted to leave Indy even if they are the only team that can offer it to him. These guys could look to shed some pay for Jules to remain on the roster. But Jules too should look to shed some of that bag to see if some of his fellow teammates (like Brook) can come back and further fortify the depth of our roster so we can become legit contenders if we add our 2max guys. Its just a feel good way of looking at it. But if he's hungry for a few more million, then as a fan, I personally ain't with it cause 15M is nearly 3 times the amount of what an average NBA player gets paid. That's fair IMHO...especially when you consider his accomplishments/achievements and overall impact towards team W/Ls are so far. You keep using red font, but there's plenty of red ink on Jules's file and till he rectifies it, I'm not comfortable paying him like a pseudo star.
Turns out free agents cost whatever someone is willing to pay Should be interesting to see how that plays out in a tight market with limited top tier options I think we all hope we get Julius back in a win win scenario, but if not, I hope the front office has some great Plan B’s for us
Why say you wouldn't be comfortable with Julius taking 20-25% of 101M cap? When the conversation is for a lot of us hoping for lower but expecting 16-18%? That's the kind of stuff that makes me come throw in my unsolicited 2 cents too often.
Dude, its a discussion forum...your 2 cents are not only necessary, they're expected. Disclaimer: till we see what comparable frontline players get this summer and whether UFA vs RFA makes a difference, we really won't know what's fair value for Jules, what's a bargain, and what's overpaying. That said, let me clarify and give you acutal numbers that would make me (and me alone) comfortable based off of my (and only my opinion) talent evaluation based off of a impact on team W/Ls, NBA achievements, stat rankings, etc. 12-15M = I'm comfortable with and believe its a great team deal. Recall, that the Lakers did NOT offer a 12M per year extension before the season started. So they're obviously looking for a team friendly deal as well. Meanwhile, Mintz and Jules were reportedly willing to take that amount. If they're willing to take that, would they really scoff at 15M and consider it insulting? 15-17M = I can stomach, but Jules has to really show me things next year that will make me more comfortable with that type of salary. If things go to plan and we get Bron/George, then that only makes life easier for Jules, so he is expected and should be able to put up great numbers next year. 17-max = No thank you and even though its a mere 5M away from what I'm comfortable with, its also a mere 5M away from the the likes of AD and Rudy Gobert (22M), both players I would happily and eagerly trade Jules for (especially if dude is making similar money to them dudes). Consider this: Kawhi, Kyrie and Klay are 2019 free agent targets and would be making the same type of money if Jules falls in that latter 17-max bracket. In fact if Jules breaks 20M then he's making more then some of those dudes. So for every Bazemore, Otto, Noah, Chandler that is brought up, consider the other players that are getting underpaid. Heck, KD is making 25M this season. Also if Jules had a jumpshot and was a legit 7 footer, then of course his market value becomes that much greater. I love his bully ball skillset, but I don't consider it 15-20M worthy....especially cause (get ready for it...you might want to turn away for this) it didn't move the needle.
But that's the thing. You can't really consider it because of how drastically different the CBA's were. Ben Simmons made less than 10 million this season. When deciding what a person is worth, you almost have to break it down into contribution along with opportunity cost. 17 million vs 25 million means nothing if that 8 million extra never nets us anything. But if resigning him at 16 million allows us a max free agent this offseason and another next offseason when a 25 would not, then it's an issue. I think that 17 million is fine for Julius. If we get rid of Deng and sign Lebron and PG, then I'd even go higher with him since we'd be capped out for the foreseeable future regardless.
Exactly...that IS the thing...you can't compare contracts of different markets/CBAs to justify what Jules gets paid. But if you do, then for every bad contract that gets brought up that could make a lucrative Jules contract look like a good deal, you can't ignore the cost efficient contracts that would make any lucrative Jules contract look like a bad deal. Also, I'm totally against trading away assets in a Deng dump just so that PG, George and Jules can get paid more or closer to their max. Stretching Deng, keeping Jules's cap hold on the books, means Bron and George would have to sacrifice between them roughly 5M of their combined true maxes (28M vs 30.3M for George and 33M vs 35.6M for Bron) to fit into our cap space. If they can't sacrifice that much so that we can retain Jules and spare any assets we would lose in a Deng dump, then I'm not sure they're sincere in wanting to compete. That's a meager "sacrifice" to make for a more competitive roster. And since we've seen Bron do it before in Miami and his Cleveland return, then why not for us as his likely final destination? Meanwhile, the more Jules takes up in cap, the less we have in rounding out the roster....room exception AND available cap space turn into only the MLE as an option to round out the roster. In any Deng dump, you're also losing cost-effective team friendly deals in draft capital. So if you're going to dump Deng to create more cap, then you better use that cap to round out the roster and not pay PG/Bron/Jules more money. Also the closer you are to the tax, the more a marginal player will cause pause. For example, depending on how punitive the tax bracket we're in, a 5M dollar player becomes 10M when you consider luxury taxes. Just cause we have cap doesn't mean we need to be carefree and cavalier about it. Who do you think you are? Mitch?
If PG and Lebron sign here and we are able to keep Randle, it will be him on his cap hold of 12 million. What we end up signing him for will be inconsequential after we have filled everything out because we'll be over the cap for 5-6 years regardless.
The last few years, we've seen stars do the 1+1 technique or in CP3s case the opt into final year approach. In cp3's case, Houston acquired his full bird rights in the trade. With 1+1 deals, the team gains early bird rights to a free agent if they opt out in that 2nd year. KD did it when he 1st got to GS. He opted out last summer and GS signed him to an early bird contract. But dude took 25M (10M off his true max, so he's opting out again this summer and through his early bird rights he'll get higher annual raises. Bron dude the same in his return to Cleveland. I agree that if PG/Bron do a full 4 year max deal with us then it doesn't matter how much Jules gets cause we'll be capped out. But here's the thing...barring a Deng dump, those dudes would have to take less then their max to fit in Jules. So if they really want max dollar while keeping Jules, then they're gonna need to go the 1+1 route and if Jules takes less, then next summer PG/Bron can opt out and recruit some ring chasers so that we can fit them into cap space again and gain their early bird rights (8% vs 5% annual increases). Btw the difference between early bird and full bird rights is the amount of max years we can offer them (4 years vs 5 years). Both types of rights offer 8% annual raises.
We can't rely on PG and LeBron and Jules all taking paycuts...especially for a team that isn't contending yet. Also, just because they're not willing to take paycuts doesn't mean they're not the right fit for our team. There is a way to get ALL of this without havin to sacrifice picks and without anybody having to take a paycut...Lakers need to do what Eric Pincus suggested a few months back and EXTEND and STRETCH Deng...meaning we'll have Deng on our books for 11 years at $3M per year. If he does that, then we can have Jules at $15M and then PG/Bron can both get paid their respective maxes. We're all good. No picks dumped. Everyone gets paid. The sales pitch isn't "take a paycut" either. If we somehow get LeBron/PG13/Randle this summer without dumping picks with Deng...Rob and Magic will need billboards and statues all across LA.
Honestly, I'd rather dump a couple picks if need be than stretch Deng over 11 years. Picks are nice, but we have enough youth on the roster at this point. If we keep Randle, we'd have 5 of our 7 major contributors under the age of 25 (in the event we sign Lebron and PG).
The cap hit will be minimal especially with cap increases every year. I'm done giving up picks to dump players man. I still hate the D-Lo trade, and we've done really really well in the draft lately (esp with our late picks)...I would rather have cost-controlled young players on rookie deals that will contribute right away.
The precedent's been set several times for players hooking up to take a little less than their to the moon max salaries. James twice already. Wade, Bosh, Durant. Stretching Deng should be last option IMO.
The D-Lo trade at the time was tough to swallow but it landed the Lakers the pick that became Kuzma, a fairly capable stopgap C in Lopez who was good enough that he could be a decent option again next season and freed up over 32M in cap space the next two summers (excluding any $ potentially spent on bringing back Lopez). So in hindsight I'd do that trade 10 times out of 10, even without knowing what the cap space will amount to. I'm with you in that I hated giving up picks to dump salaries (or did moves in general for cap relief). They did it far too often years ago. Examples including attaching a 1st rounder to Vujacic and Fish and Walton/Kapono in three separate deals to unload them. Or trading their 2009 1st round for a future 2nd and cash. That said, I'd do it for Deng. The guy is useless - or at least the Lakers treat him as such - and owed 36.8M the next 2 seasons. That's game-changing cap relief if the Lakers can find a way. If the Lakers can dump him giving up two future 1sts, I'm fine with it because we know they have a plan for that cap space that should have value beyond what a late 1st brings. The Lakers aren't going to get a Kuzma every time.
Yes we can! Bron came to a 33 win Cavs team that was led by a 21 year old Ky.... And took less than his max to do so. Before that, he went to a 47 win club in Miami who lost 4-1 in the 1st round... Again took less than his max to do so. Indy was the only team that could offer PG the supermax, yet dude was "hell-bent" in leaving them if they allowed him to enter free agency. The precedent is clearly there for both these dudes to take less than their respective maxes. Now look at what Philly did with Embiid's contract...lets consider that a contract filled with incentives can get them the money they want as long as they sign a bare-bones contact for all of them to fit within our salary cap construct. Bron, at his advanced age and playing mileage, would be an ideal candidate for playing time/games-driven incentives in his contract. PG can no longer get the supermax and can no longer get more money via his bird rights if he joins us via free agency, but if you make all-star or all-nba, then we'll give you a bonus in your contact that can push it to your true max. We know this current FO loves to push their players to be better...Jules was challenged to change his body... Now challenge him to earn more money via performance incentives. Again, I am not a fan of wasting assets to dump Deng, all in the name of paying Bron/PG/Jules more money.
