Brandon Ingram Discussion: He Is Who We Thought He Could Be

I wrote this up before last game. Figured I'd post it now:

Ingram's Transition

SCORING
Brandon Ingram was a very effective scorer in college, posting a 6.15 Scoring Efficiency. In addition to picking up 1.41 points per shot, he was scoring .52 points per minute on the court. In the summer league, Ingram's efficiencies in both respects fell, as he posted 1.20 points per shot and scored .45 points per minute on the court. His Scoring Efficiency fell to 5.70. In the preseason, playing with almost entirely NBA players, his numbers took an interesting turn. He was more passive, scoring .31 points per minute, but some of his shooting efficiency from college returned. He scored 1.28 points per shot, but his overall efficiency fell to 5.02, which isn't very good.

Ingram shot 41.2% - 25.0% - 68.1% in SPL.
Ingram shot 39.1% - 38.9% - 57.1% in the preseason.

I'm not concerned about his three-point shooting. It looks like he has already made that adjustment. I am concerned about how many points he will leave at the line. He has never been a good FT shooter, notably shooting 35-58 in games in which he attempted at least 9 FTs while at Duke. You'd expect him to get into a rhythm and start sinking shots, but it doesn't. We should also probably not be surprised if Ingram's FG% hovers around 40 for most of the season. It should come along, but it will take time given that he like to shoot from all over on the floor, and he's not just an arc camper.

For the early going, expect a passive player who picks his spots and hits threes at a good rate. Ingram shouldn't be counted on as a primary or secondary scorer much in the early going. Still, he should hit 100+ threes this season.

PASSING
Ingram posted a 1:1 ast/to ratio in college, handing out 2.1 assists per 36 minutes. He posted a 2.28 Passing Efficiency. In the SPL, these numbers improved, as he averaged 2.36 assists per 36, 1.1:1 ast/to ratio, and pumped up the Passing Efficiency to 2.42. In the preseason, he continued to improve, posting a 2.6:1 ast/to ratio, handing out 2.49 assists per 36, and recording a 2.51 Passing Rating.

While the Passing Rating isn't incredible, it's a good score for a less ball-dominant player, especially for a Small Forward. Ingram seems the type of player who will minimize mistakes (more on this under Hustle), make mostly good decisions, even if he's a bit on the conservative side. This is a good foundation for learning to adjust to the game. Ingram should hand out 150+ assists this season, and his ast/to ratio should be one of the best on the team.

HUSTLE
In college, Ingram posted a 1.07:1 good (o-reb, block, steal):bad (to, pf) ratio for hustle stats. He did something good roughly every eight minutes. This gave him a 3.18 Hustle Rating, which is quite good for a SF. In SPL, the good:bad was ~1.5:1 (excellent), but the rate of goodness decreased a bit. He finished with a very similar 3.12 Hustle Rating. In the preseason, he still posted a very good good:bad ratio (1.25:1), but the rate of goodness fell again, to 1 per just over 9 minutes. His Hustle Rating was a 2.99, which is still good for a wing player.

Ingram has a fascinating profile from the Wing perspective: he is a so-so offensive rebounder, a so-so source of steals, but an excellent shot blocker (he has 11 blocks vs. 8 steals in 325 minutes as a pro). He has also minimized the bad by few turnovers and a pretty ridiculously low foul rate (one per 17 minutes). Ingram should be able to register 70+ blocks and 70+ steals this season.

OVERALL
Ingram's positional efficiency was 69 at Duke, 63 in the SPL, and 54 in the preseason. Non ball-dominant wings do struggle to post high efficiency numbers in this system, but he should be able to creep into the 60s this season. Coupled with his defensive contributions, Ingram should be a legit starter for the second half of the season. The biggest question marks will be offensive aggressiveness, durability, and his free throw shooting.

 

For what it's worth, only 31 rookies in the past 30 years have posted even half those numbers - 50 threes, 35 blocks, 35 steals, and 75 assists.

If we go to 2/3 those numbers: 67 triples, 47 blocks, 47 steals, and 100 assists, the list is down to five. It's a pretty fascinating list: Paul Pierce, Shane Battier, Latrell Sprewell, Wesley Johnson, and Jerry Stackhouse.

Battier is the only one to hit the 100-70-70-150 I'm suggesting Ingram can reach.

 

Honestly, my only worry about Ingram is that i don't see the makings of a star yet, and that's wholly due to his attitude/demeanor. His demeanor says really good role player to me. The self confidence, believing no one can stop him, no one is better than him, have to develop.

He's young and unsure of himself, so this can change. But if not he better be the quiet Tim Duncan type of killer, because I don't see that prototypical Super Star fire I see in Russ, Randal, Clarkson and even Nance.

Tim Duncan type of personality in the NBA is few and far between for All Stars.

 

What type of demeanor is Kwahi Leonard? Spurs players and coaching have said prior to the last 2 years Leonard would hardly talk and just worked and worked and worked.

 

No, I was saying I do see that fire in Russ, Randal, Clarkson and Nance.

Bringing up Kawhi Leonard is a good point. He is another one of those personalities. They do exist, but it's so A-Typical of most NBA stars it worries me to not see that fire in Ingram. I want to see him flex some or have a little swag hop in his step after hitting a dagger 3.

That would just make me feel better haha

 

At the end of the Houston game, there was Russell, Randle and Clarkson yukking it up. Ingram just looks at them then walks away. He is very low key. Still rivers run deep... Ingram will get better as seasons go. Takes his game seriously, good instincts with a skill set that is yet to be sharply honed.

 

Like I said to lakerfan2, Leonard is another one, but other than Leonard and Duncan, there aren't many in recent memory that were AllStars, that were that quiet and reserved. I want to believe Ingram will make it as much as you do, but honestly, his demeanor might be the biggest warning sign of a really good roll player rather than All Star.

 

Well, Ingram having the quiet, introvert personality should work well in combination with DAR's outgoing, extrovert persona, right? Ray Allen is another guy who worked extremely hard, would trash talk here and there (like most old-school players), but generally he was quiet. Lamar Odom certainly wasn't a showy type, and neither was Pau. We could even go back to Showtime. There were few people who weren't as showy as Magic, for example. AC Green was so important for us, but he wasn't exactly Magic-like, was he?

 

Hopefully that's true. Less likely to clash I guess

 

I don't expect his personality to change. Quiet confidence. is he gonna hit a big shot and proclaim "this is my house ! this is my sh..!" I doubt it. but I do think those big shots are coming. and that's all that matters to me.

I'm still in awe of the simple plan to have him bring the ball up. so simple, yet so genius.