Lakers Believers In Analytics? Espn Ranks Us Bottom 10

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by LaVarBallsDad, Feb 23, 2015.

  1. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    The Lakers were the only NBA team without a representative at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, symbolic of their disregard for advanced stats. Two years later, they say they have begun to take steps toward adopting a new approach, but the progress is invisible so far.

    Former Lakers head coach Rudy Tomjanovich and his son, Trey, have been providing basic statistical analysis to the front office for years, but it's only recently that the Lakers have invested in an analytics department. GM Mitch Kupchak told ESPN.com that SportVU data has "changed this whole business" and that he has brought aboard a group of four employees to interpret the data.

    But the Lakers were slow to embrace SportVU data, not being willing to pay for the cameras before the NBA stepped up and installed them in every arena. And while Kupchak indicated most SportVU analysis is directed toward the coaching staff, with assistant coach Mark Madsen as a conduit, it's hard to find any evidence of Byron Scott putting those insights in play on the court.

    Scott's preseason declaration that he doesn't believe an offense heavy on 3-point attempts wins championships runs counter to statistical analysis and recent history. Following through on Scott's directives, the Lakers are taking the NBA's third-highest percentage of their shots from the midrange, the least efficient area of the court.

    No on-court metrics supported signing Kobe Bryant to a two-year, $48.5 million extension coming off Achilles surgery. Bryant provided just 0.1 win shares during the first season of that deal before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, a major reason the Lakers are on pace to set a team record for fewest wins since moving to Los Angeles in 1960 for the second straight season.

    http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#nba-lal

    Yeah, it's ESPN, I know. Still, I thought interesting...
     
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  2. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    wait...espn chose to rank the lakers low in something?

    no way.

    btw, it's not analytics that have the lakers in a hole. in fact, they tend to get more bang for the buck on minor trades and FA signings (where this is supposed to matter) than most of the super duper stat teams. they've also drafted quite well relative to draft position for some time now.

    but yeah, win shares and stuff...
     
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  3. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Ireland reported a year or two ago that the Lakers use a lot of analytics (an MIT team in fact) but they also lean heavily on their staff that's won more Championships than anyone else since 1980.

    ESPN: "Lakers bad = clicks".
     
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  4. thkthebest

    thkthebest Administrator Staff Member

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    Lakers have historically had a superstar. There's not much analytics needed when you have Magic, Kareem, Shaq, Kobe, West, etc.

    But, we should start adapting to changing times and begin using all the tools at our disposal. Otherwise, we aren't doing all that we can to be the best we can be. Teams that turned things around (Hawks, Pistons, etc.) have recently embraced analytics. A lot of the top teams have been believers of it (Mavericks, Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, etc.).

    This article talks about how each team approaches analytics and ranks them based on how much faith they put into analytics. Where do the Lakers rank? Dead last with the Knicks and the Nets.

    All In:
    Dallas Mavericks
    Houston Rockets
    Philadelphia 76ers
    San Antonio Spurs

    Believers:
    Atlanta Hawks
    Boston C Bags
    Cleveland Cavaliers
    Detroit Pistons
    Golden State Warriors
    Memphis Grizzlies
    Oklahoma City Thunder
    Portland Trail Blazers

    One Foot In:
    Charlotte Hornets
    Indiana Pacers
    Miami Heat
    Milwaukee Bucks
    Orlando Magic
    Phoenix Suns
    Sacramento Kings
    Toronto Raptors
    Utah Jazz

    Skeptics:
    Chicago Bulls
    Denver Nuggets
    Los Angeles Clippers
    Minnesota Timberwolves
    New Orleans Pelicans
    Washington Wizards

    Nonbelievers:
    Brooklyn Nets
    Los Angeles Lakers
    New York Knicks

    http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings
     
  5. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    I posted the same thread. LOL. Maybe someone could merge the two?
     
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  6. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    1. how are the rockets a top team all of a sudden? they look mediocre to me, and the only thing that could make them a real contender (Dwight howard returning to form) is something that could be accomplished with a drooling moron running the FO--use cap room to sign max FA. bang. #numberz

    btw, maybe their crack staff should have foreseen his health problems. I mean, they're wizards and stuff, right?

    2. I'd be shocked to find out that svg relies heavily on "analytics" as would be suggested by the usage of the term here.

    I think espn just looked at the standings, then found ways to justify a ranking system that made it look like good teams use analytics and bad teams don't. here's my (equally stupid) counter: the lakers just recently picked it up, and just recently started sucking. thus, analytics = bad.

    see? this is fun.
     
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  7. thkthebest

    thkthebest Administrator Staff Member

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    Well, Rockets are the 3rd seed in the West. Is that not a top team? It's also not any one team. It's a trend. Like I said, analytics are a tool. It isn't "God". Saying things like how analytics should predict injuries or pull off impossible feats isn't an argument. Nobody and no thing can do that so how is that somehow a con for analytics? It's a tool that gives you an advantage, and the teams that are using analytics are starting to pull ahead. Aside from the Clippers (which may change with Ballmer), every single playoff team in the West have embraced analytics.

    SVG said in an interview a few years ago that he loves analytics and he thinks it's great. He even commented on the analytics of the recently acquired Reggie Jackson so yes, he's a guy who believes in it. This does not mean that he "relies" on analytics. It's just another tool that he uses.

    Yes, he said that they had four members in 2014. This is in contrast to having sent nobody to the MIT analytics conference in 2013. As noted by the article, the Lakers are a "newcomer" in this department and only have 4 staff members. I think that's a step in the right direction, but we're still far away from where we need to be. If you take a look at other teams, Carlisle looked at the analytics and decided to make a lineup change. Popovich looks at analytics to make strategic adjustments. Steve Kerr, Stan Van Gundy, Tom Thibodeau, etc. are all coaches that look at analytics. Byron Scott strikes me as the type of coach who would immediately discredit it, and I think the type of coach we hire reflects the beliefs of our front office. While charismatic, I would still want our coach to be open analytics. At the least, I would want some assistant coaches to take a look at them.
     
  8. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    Ben Rosales @brosales12 · 6h 6 hours ago
    As one might expect, the Lakers are at the bottom w/r/t the integration of analytics, but like that Mitch hired someone for SportVU data.

    Ben Rosales @brosales12 · 6h 6 hours ago
    The hilarious nugget in that article is that Mitch funnels all that data to the coaching staff via Mark Madsen, but Byron does squat w/it.

    Ben Rosales @brosales12 · 6h 6 hours ago
    Honestly, it's another reason to want a Fizdale-type as the next coach. Feel it would spur the development of analytics in the organization.

    Ben Rosales @brosales12 · 6h 6 hours ago
    The Lakers have run an old-school FO for years upon years. You don't adopt Morey-esque stuff on a whim. Takes time to integrate.

    This is pretty much my take. Scott doesn't look like the type nor does the evidence suggests that he's going to use analytics. In order to get the FO to move in that direction a little more swiftly, the next coach has to be the to to adopt it, implement it, and I think the FO would embrace being more open to it.

    Another point to consider as mentioned in the tweets. This type of stuff doesn't happen overnight. We currently have 4 people on our staff and we're trending forward in that direction. Baby steps...

     
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  9. The Showtime Mamba

    The Showtime Mamba - Lakers 6th Man -

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    So you mean Philadelphia is using reverse analytics right? Making the anti moneyball decisions until they pull the next Dr J out of the lottery cauldron.

    If so maybe we can fight fire with fire in this tank battle and drop some science on the league with tankalytics.

    I think stats are important, but you still need eyes to catch stats that lie, but I will always trust statistics over Sir Charles who is up with Magic as one of my all time favorite players/worst analysts combinations.
     
  10. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    they're firmly in the morass of teams 3-7 in the west. there are two top teams. if they're a top team, then so are the mavs, blazers, clippers, and spurs. moreover, they've done basically nothing since morey got there with his calculator and set the bloggers all atwitter.

    publicly embracing "analytics" and private use of data are different things, imo. hard for me to believe any team has ever willfully ignored any kind of statistic.

    again, you're not allowed to say anything bad about analytics, else the witch hunt begins. and saying that you've consulted stats is different than building a philosophy around it.

    you say that i'm asking too much of analytics; i say you're asking too little. coaches recalling a time or two during their lengthy careers in which a stat figured in a decision is kind of damning with faint praise, no?
     
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  11. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    There does seem to be an odd standard set with using the term "analytics". It's so polarizing for some reason.

    If Jim Buss was a huge analytics guy, would that ingratiate him among the fans or would he hated even more?

    Jerry West is probably the single greatest NBA talent evaluator of all time, but how much analytics did he use? Honest question, I seriously don't know the answer but I'm guessing he went mostly off of what he saw and felt.

    I'm certainly not ANTI-analytics, there shouldn't be anyone in the world of sports left who feels that way. I just think there's two sides to talent evaluation and both need to be taken just as seriously as the other. If I tell someone who is heavily into analytics that "my eyes say _____" about a person, I usually get scoffed at. If I tell a person who says "my eyes say _____" about a person that the numbers say differently I get a similar reaction.

    Por que no los dos?

    Analytics might not have been great to Kobe Bryant coming out of high school. Analytics might also tell you which role player is going to fit in well with which superstar. Everything needs to be taken into account.

    Right now the Lakers have 16 rings and have been wildly successful for 30 years. Obviously they know some things about building a good team. Houston might be doing alright right now, but I'll hold judgement until they actually climb the mountain.
     
  12. Savory Griddles

    Savory Griddles Moderator Staff Member

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    Not to mention that the players they get (Harden, Howard, Ariza) are essentially the players that everyone thinks are the "best at position" they could get at the given time they got them, stat head or not. I also think analytics and advanced analytics are two different things. Everyone pays attention to analytics on some level. If a dude averages 25 ppg on 49% shooting, anyone is going to want him. I think the advanced analytics are for filling out role players.
     
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  13. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Definitely. I think advanced analytics are perfect for figuring out the role players and how players can best fit together.
     
  14. thkthebest

    thkthebest Administrator Staff Member

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    Well, yea, you don't need analytics to know that Jordan or Kobe or whoever was the best during a certain era. But what happens if we don't get the next Kobe? What if our next superstar is only the 5th best player in the league? How do we get an advantage over the other 4 players who are better than him? We need a better 2nd option, 3rd option, role players, coach, etc. You have to find any advantage you can get, and when it comes to that, how do you exactly quantify who is better for your team?

    It's not just role players. I think for the most part, you are right, but there are times when it also applies to stars. Harden was the 3rd string / 6th man on his team. Analytics suggested that he's a max contract player, and now, he's #2 on the MVP list. You don't do that for just any 6th man / 3rd option. A ton of people here were doubting him as a max contract player.
     
  15. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    You should read about SAS and how they've incorporated it. I think they have the best 'blend' of using every advantage capable of using all methods. They've also won championships, and I'm not entirely basing that on analytics. There's obviously other factors involved...
     
  16. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    They reaching...

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    actually, "advanced stats" tell me I want prime wade more than prime kobe. and I don't. they would also put wade's 2006 finals in the pantheon when I'd put it in the hall of shame.

    also, i challenge someone to show me how, say, Houston has actually done well in terms of drafting or making value signings (other than their brief period of predatory lending on second rounders that now seems over) compared to other teams. I'd put the lakers' drafting ability by draft position against Houston's over morey's tenure and be perfectly happy.

    also, Houston's coach is pretty crappy.

    just don't get the fascination with that team or that philosophy. both have yielded jack, and I'm betting it stays that way. they peddle hope and not results.


    the only thing that surprised me about harden was that his foul-drawing would continue at an alarming rate. his shooting percentages dropped and counting stats went up, just like anyone without a degree in stats would have expected.

    and again, nice timing on all of this. harden's a top mvp candidate by default (tired of giving it to the obviously better LeBron, kd is injured, and for whatever reason everyone hates westbrook and paul--all these guys plus curry and gasol are clearly better players on equal or better teams)

    also, this all happens while Houston holds on (tenuously) to a top seed and ny and la are at their nadir. take this poll three years ago and la and ny look great despite the same supposed disdain for all things "analytics", dallas and Houston are missing the playoffs and everyone thinks SA is done.

    silliness. or, as Rodgers put it, reaching.
     
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  18. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    analytics as currently defined (if they are) had nothing to do with Duncan/parker/ginobili/popovich. after that, i really don't give a crap about what the spurs have done, as pretty much anything not stupid would have yielded wins upon wins.

    semi-related note: if kevin pelton's stat brilliance that predicts okafor as the 15th best draft prospect this year comes true, i might fully convert!
     
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  19. thkthebest

    thkthebest Administrator Staff Member

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    Not sure why you keep bringing up Houston. They are one team out of many, and despite how you keep mentioning them, they have yielded positive results. Morey became the GM in 07. He acquired a team with two superstars near the end of their careers because of injuries. Despite losing those two players, the Rockets have never once went below .500 and are now on pace to win 55 games with Harden as one of the top candidates for MVP. And somehow, you see this as a bad thing? O.o

    "Advanced stats" also don't say that you want prime Wade over Kobe. It all depends on which stat you look at because yes, Wade did do some things better than Kobe. For example, Kobe was in elite category in spot up jumpers and off screen jumpers. Can Wade ever do that? Kobe lead the league in isolation ppp and was among the best in post up ppp. Kobe has consistently dominated in terms of impact whereas Wade has been up and down. Which "advanced stat" are you looking at? PER? A stat that was invented 20 years ago?

    Regardless of what surprised you, the majority of this board did not expect Harden to be worthy of a max contract. Go back and look at the previous topic when Harden was signed. Nearly everyone thought that while he was good, he didn't deserve it. "Timing" really has nothing to do with it. He was worthy of a max contract last season too. Is Harden is worthy of a max contract? Most said no. Advanced stats said yes. Is this somehow supposed to be a jab at analytics?

    "Three years ago", Spurs and Thunder were the top 2 seeds in the West. Both teams that use advanced stats. Danny Ferry is about to become the GM of the Hawks and turn things around by getting rid of players like Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Grizzlies hired Hollinger, and they do better than ever. Yes, the Lakers were a powerhouse. That is without a doubt true, but I have no idea why you are bringing up NY in this. Nobody in the world thought NY looked great. They have always sucked outside of 1 season.

    Anyway, is this argument supposed to discredit analytics? What most "stat heads" are trying to say is that the Lakers have extra tools that they could use, which they are reportedly not using. Or are you trying to argue that Lakers should not use analytics?
     
  20. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    Sorry, I'll take what Pop and the GM from SAS said over you...
     

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