Hypothetical: Guarantee #3 Pick Or Take Chances With Lottery?

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by Lakerman JSJ, Apr 6, 2017.

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Would you rather take the #3 pick today guaranteed or take your chances with the Lottery?

  1. PLAY IT SAFE! Take #3 pick right now.

    23 vote(s)
    76.7%
  2. ROLL THE DICE! GIMME FULTZ OR BALL! Take our chances with the lottery.

    7 vote(s)
    23.3%
  1. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Starter -

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    someone drafted much later than ball is almost certainly going to be better than him. the pain this year is not missing out on a top pick; it's missing out on the flexibility any pick provides.

    this is why the hypothetical is a no-brainer for me.
     
  2. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff LB Facebook Editor

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    [​IMG][​IMG] [​IMG]

    "My Dad" told me

    :Laugh:
     
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  3. Khmrp

    Khmrp - Lakers 6th Man -

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    Regardless of how you feel about the talent lvl, its better to keep the pick than not. Its an asset, theres lots of things you can do with it and again not keeping the pick doesnt mean we get a better pick/player next yr either and not to mention not having to convey another possible lottery pick to Orl in 19'

    And yes I was wrong other way, i thought deng signing was less terrible than Mozgov due to his track record. Mozgov best season was just your avg role player C, he did not deserve that much $ and I don't care if thats the "avg" salay for being 7ft. He had a terrible yr in clev, all that stuff clev talked bout his injury was just lip service so he wouldn't get a bad deal but clev knew what Mozgov was
     
  4. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    I don't follow. You think there's going to be a guy in the 40 range better than Ball?
     
  5. Jaguar

    Jaguar - Rookie -

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    Lonzo or Buss. I mean Lonzo or bust.
     
  6. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff LB Facebook Editor

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    It wouldn't be a stretch if that's what he means. Invariably someone selected later ends up shining brighter and making people wonder how they missed him.
     
  7. OX1947

    OX1947 - Rookie -

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    No one would enjoy eating crow more than I if we end up getting Ball and he and Russell become the next Steph and Klay. Believe me. If that happens, I'm standing at Staples smiling up at Shaq's dong after the games. Lakers are eventually going to lose this pick. Next year its top pick protected, so this will be the last shot in all intense purposes for us to draft another top 3 talent in a draft. I just hope it results in playoff potential regular season whether the Lakers keep the pick or trade the pick.

    Ideally if Ball becomes what so many hope and the Lakers get him, than the Lakers will not only have flexibility but an abundance talent. If there is progression next year and the Lakers decide to keep their picks, progression meaning winning games towards the playoff spot, than PG coming in 2018 becomes a reality if he isnt on an All NBA team this summer. The true test for this new regime is this summer regardless of trades. bringing in Bake Griffin without a PG trade would set the league on fire. I know many dont like Biff but he is a star and if he is willing to commit to a mid 20 game winner, that means pelinka and magic are here to stay and the good ole times are a coming. That is what I will be paying attention to this off season.
     
  8. Kenzo

    Kenzo - Lakers Starter -

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    John, a "Ball guy" with the safe option? :D
     
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  9. karacha

    karacha Moderator Staff Member

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    Definitely take the #3.
     
  10. Lakers2015

    Lakers2015 - Lakers Starter -

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    Like everyone else take #3 although I'm big fans of Fultz and Ball. Definitely see potential stars there. No guarantee though. I thought Russell had the same potential and Ingram although haven't given up on them just yet. Draft is a crap shoot.
     
  11. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Just looking for clarity, that's all. I understand the logic behind it.

    I don't think there's going to be a guard late in the draft that's better than Ball over the course of their careers. I'm sure somebody could surprise, but this draft is very deep in big men not necessarily guards. There might be a flash-in-the-pan type of guard, but I would put a lot of money down that there's not going to be a guard much later in the draft that is almost certain to be better than Ball.

    Just looking at the past drafts, I'm not sure that's a common thing. In 2015, what guard is better than Russell in the 2nd round? In 2014, you could argue maybe Clarkson over Smart? Maybe. In 2013, what guard in the 2nd round is better than Oladipo? Crabbe? Neto? In 2012, Beal was the 3rd pick. Will Barton is one of the only notable names in the 2nd round. In 2011, Kyrie went number one and obviously there's no one better from that class. In 2010, the same with John Wall. In 2009, the only argument I can see is Steph going 7th. Before him there was Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke Evans, Rubio, and Johnny Flynn. In 2008, Rose went number one. The only notable guards that went after him are Goran Dragic and George Hill.

    What I'm getting at is although there's always a "miss" in every draft, there's a reason these kids are drafted high. Unless @abeer3 thinks Ball is Johnny Flynn, then I'm just going to have to not agree with this take. Unless much later means a few spots down, then there's more argument, but other than that we're talking about Josh Hart or Monte Morris almost certainly being better than Ball? I don't see it.
     
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  12. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff LB Facebook Editor

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    Damn you people with research and facts to back up your position

    :Tabarnak:

    Why, back in the day people just spoke opinions and they were honored as quality arguments. The internet is total b*******
     
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  13. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    @abeer3 knows I respect the hell out of him. I'm sure he'll have a great point to come back to. I also know he's skeptical on Ball and because there's a narrative that Ball will "save the team" he's even more skeptical.

    I don't think Ball is a savior, but I do think he's a very good player and a great prospect.
     
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  14. lakerfan2

    lakerfan2 - Lakers Starter -

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    I'd take the guarantee.

    I'd rather not take the chance at losing it, and the #3 would still be a solid asset in a trade.

    Randle+Deng+#3 for PG? Yeah Indy has to take Deng, but they get Randle and could possible fill George with Josh Jackson.

    That might do it.
     
  15. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Starter -

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    i never said second round. i said much later, and the stats are going to support the argument that a player taken, say, outside the lotto is going to be better than ball. this is generally true in all drafts except your lebron, duncan, anthony davis type drafts.

    ball is not even in the same zip code as those dudes, nor is fultz. thus, #3 is fine with me.

    i also didn't say guard. i said someone drafted later was almost certainly going to be better. the odds are in my favor, as it's rare that the 2nd overall pick is better than everyone taken after. you only feel this way in the oden/durant draft. this isn't one of those.

    i mean, i guess mcconnell wasn't drafted...

    http://www.basketball-reference.com...os_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&order_by=ws

    depending on the metric, but the larger point is that you can look at a bunch of these, using any sorting metric, and you'll find your top picks all over the board.



    http://www.basketball-reference.com...os_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&order_by=ws

    i won't keep going; i think you understand the point.

    there's always a LOT of misses.

    sometimes it's faulty scouting. everyone thought mike dunleavy and adam morrisson were great picks at #3. hasheem thabeet was considered sensible at #2. hindsight is super powerful.

    sirron said 2nd round. i just meant "later". what is "much"? hell, i don't know. with the way people prize top 5 around here, let's just cut it there. or the lotto. doesn't matter, really.

    the hypothetical that kicked this off is: would you rather not pick if you couldn't have fultz or ball (i mean, that was the implication)? i said i'd easily rather pick, because i've got a good shot at drafting someone as good or better somewhere between 3 and 20.

    the sticking point seems to be that the above statement will be translated to "i have a good shot at drafting a star at #20", but that's not what i'm saying. i'm saying i have nearly as good a shot at drafting a star at many points in the draft--because they're all low probabilities.

    again, the lakers have drafted well over a long period of time (including recent picks), and half the fan base wants to run these dudes out of town because they're not all-nba-ers. it's likely true for fultz and ball, too, but that doesn't mean i don't want a pick.
     
  16. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    I mean the main point here is what I figured: you meant at any point after Ball. When I read "much later" I figured you meant lower into the draft like the 2nd round and there's just not much evidence to support that every draft has a guy in the 2nd round that's better than a Top 5 guy. There's sufficient evidence to suggest that lottery picks are just that: a lottery pick, but I would still say there's a pretty direct correlation between a guy going in the upper tiers of a draft and their success in the NBA. I'd say the cutoff is probably 14ish or so which is again the lottery side of it.

    For instance I'm willing to abide an argument saying Fox, Monk, Smith, or even Ntilikina could be better or equal to Ball at #2, but they're all Top 10 picks (and I don't think they will be personally).

    I still agree with the general statement of: would I take the guaranteed #3 pick to pass up on probably Ball and Fultz? Yes. Absolutely yes. There's sufficient other players to help our cause. Heck if Fox, Tatum, and Jackson blow a team away in interviews you may even see Fultz or Ball at #3 anyway.
     
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  17. Savory Griddles

    Savory Griddles - Lakers Starter -

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    I mean, Ball seems to want to be a Laker so bad, I could see him tanking his interviews/workouts with the two teams that picked in front of us.
     
  18. alam1108

    alam1108 - Lakers All Star -

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    Ah, the Jahlil Okafor move.
     
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  19. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Starter -

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    worked out so well for him...
     
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  20. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    He might, but I don't think so. I think the one that has a lot to prove is Fultz though. He might be the best talent in the draft, but he had absolutely no success in college.

    Ben Simmons wasn't on a very good team, but he showed his talent and his team went 19-14 overall. Not great, but he proved his value even getting them to that point. This season that same team went 10-21 and missed the tournament again.

    Fultz, in an extremely similar situation (knowing the coaching staff), went just 9-22 on the year. Last year they were 19-15 with guys like Marquiss Chriss and Dejounte Murray leading the way. It's fair to say that those two had a better team than Fultz, but was it that much better? I don't know. Fultz is going to have to answer the question: "can you make the team better?"
     
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