Obviously nobody saw 4-22. Even the most pessimistic fan didn't see that. Many thought we'd see a much improved basketball team with some of the additions, vets and rookies, and that they'd be fun to watch and being able to at least be competitive again in the West. Has not happened. Obviously a lot of that goes on Scott and his inexplicable rotations, lack of a defensive scheme, lack of continuity on offense. Still there are some glaring holes on the roster that need to be filled. How far away is this team from being competitive and potentially be back in the postseason?
Ideally it would have been next season when we are back into the playoffs. We would have improved this season, had our young guys develop and showcase themselves for the FAs this summer (Durant mostly). But then Byron happened. Honestly it depends on how the FO decides to handle the coaching situation. If they don't fire Byron for next season or whiff for the fourth hire in a row, we could be in for a loooooong rebuild. I have confidence in Mitch building a good roster even if he misses on the big names but its up to the coach to use everyone to the best of their ability.
1. When we decide to stop tanking 2. When we draft, trade for, or sign a free agent that is a top 10 player 3. When our 3 young guys develop 4. When Scott is no longer the coach Timeframe? I'd say next year we can become a .500 team with the right coach and great strides from our 3 young guys. We can be a playoff team when we trade for or sign a really good player that is a solid All Star-type player. When will we make the playoffs and be a threat? 2 - 3 years if we do the right things.
Back in the postseason ? within 3-4 years Competitive by Lakers standards ? When Jeanie and Jim Buss are gone
Given that we're going backwards in terms of wins, it's hard to say. Statistically, we're also getting much worse. In 2012/13, our cumulative Relative ORtg and DRtg was +1.2, better than the league average. In 2013/14 it fell to -6.4, then -7.2. It's -9.8 this year. On the bright side, look at the roster comparison between the start of the slide and this season (in terms of minutes played): Kendall Marshall: career backup Jodie Meeks: sixth man Wesley Johnson: sixth man Pau Gasol: All-Star Jordan Hill: adequate starter Jordan Farmar: career backup Xavier Henry: career backup Nick Young: adequate starter Ryan Kelly: rookie with mild promise Robert Sacre: career backup vs. now... D'Angelo Russell: lotto pick Jordan Clarkson: adequate starter Kobe Bryant: savvy vet Julius Randle: lotto pick, 2x2 machine Roy Hibbert: All-Star Lou Williams: sixth man of the year Nick Young: adequate starter Metta World Peace: savvy vet Larry Nance: rookie with intriguing upside Brandon Bass: adequate starter (This is in terms of starts) I think we are immensely more talented than that team. Kobe's exodus probably means two solid or better pieces. I don't see why we can't be in the mid 30 wins next season, worst case scenario. So, another year or two later - at most - I could see us back in the playoffs.
More on Mark Jackson quick: I think I have posted this previously, but it seems worth repeating. Golden State was a very bad team for a long time. From 1994/95 to 2010/11, the Warriors had two winning seasons. 1. They never finished better than third in the division, with a mean of 4.7, a median of 6, and a mode of 6. In other words, they were essentially the third worst team in that conference for 15 years. 2. They were a cumulative 336 games under .500, an average of 19 games under .500 per season. 3. Looking at their relative ORtg and DRtg combined, they were a combined -64.2, or -3.8 per year. Then Jackson came along. Year 1: 23-43 (-20 games), +0.8 RO, +4.5 RD, total: -3.7, finished 4th in division Year 1 was clearly in line with what was happening prior to Jackson's arrival. Year 2: 47-35 (+8 games), RO +0.5, RD -0.4, total: +0.9, finished 2nd in division. The defensive rating improved by 1.6 points (but fell from 26th to 27th in the league). Year 2 saw the Warrior's second best record since 1994/95. The +0.9 relative difference was the second best, too. The 2nd place finish was the best in that span. The defensive rating improved by 3.6 (and rose from 27th to 14th). Year 3: 51-31 (+20), RO +0.8, RD -4.1, total +4.9, finished 2nd in the division. The defensive rating improved 2.9 (and moved from 14th best to 4th best). Year 3 was the best record since 1993/94. It was the best cumulative rating differential in that span. It was the first b2b playoff run since 90/91-91/92. It was the second best defensive rating by a GSW team since the 70s. His tenure saw an average, then, of +8 games (+2.3 per year), +2.1 relative difference (+0.7 per year), and an average finish of 3rd (2 median, 2 mode). He was a bit of an egomaniac, but his results cannot be denied. We'd need someone like Mitch to temper his fury (and limit his power), but Mitch can do that. I'd welcome Jackson with open arms.
i thought next year (low end playoff team), but that was before the start to this season. think three years from now. they'll forfeit the pick this year, robbing them of an asset that could put them back into the playoff hunt, but the "good" news is that the tank will be on for another year, and they figure to have a high pick in 2017 that they won't have to give up. anyway, my overarching theory is that the lakers have four interesting pieces: the three young guys and that pick--which will be theirs this year or next. they'll need to use two of them to get a legit all star, which will pave the way for a big FA acquisition. so the core is one or two of Russell/randle/Clarkson, allstar via trade and allstar via FA. that's a three year plan, and it's optimistic. man, this year sucks.
I really hate the idea of having to trade any of the young core. We've already wasted a year of development so to just give up on them and not try and bring in a competent coach who can get them developed that would be very disappointing to me. If we do trade two of them it better be for an established superstar.
The road to being competitive at least could start when we have a different coach. As is, it gets further away each day.
i'd say another 2-3 seasons before they get back into the playoffs 4-5 seasons until they can be called title contenders
I say two to three seasons. The losing is definitely getting to the front office who seem genuinely surprised by how bad we are (like everyone else I suppose). There's a lot of work to be done. My fear remains that we will do something rash due to the clock Jeanie has everyone on. The first step on our road to recovery starts with the front office. The Jeanie / Jim crap has to come to an end. I think that will finally boil over the course of this summer and next season. I can't see that whole thing ending pretty, but at least it should finally end one way or another and we can move forward. The next thing will be bringing in a new coach. Again, we can't mess this up again. We have to get the coaching staff right followed closely by beefing up our analytics guys and replacing Vitti. We will sign some free agents this summer. I'm not counting on the draft pick as I do think even if we got it we would trade it unless we get a shot at Simmons. I see us making some solid picks but nobody good enough to really get us back in the playoff hunt. We will be young again next year, but with the right coach I think the season will play out the way we expected this one to. The following year our core will really be hitting its stride and we should have a puncher's chance at the playoffs.
