Analytical Breakdown Of Wins For Next Season

Predicting the Lakers 2015-16 Win Total
Jamie Rico July 27, 2015 no comment

The Lakers are entering the season filled with uncertainty. They have a completely revamped roster, 2 promising young prospects about to get their first taste of the NBA, and a 37 year old Kobe coming off of 3 straight seasons ending in injury.

Nobody knows for sure how well this team will fare, but we might be able to look into the numbers and come up with a reasonable expectation for the 2015-16 Los Angeles Lakers. The main stat we focused on was win shares. Throughout the season each player accumulates win shares, which shows how many wins that player is directly responsible for. If you add the win shares from everyone on the team, you get about the same amount of wins the team has. This method takes offense and defense into account. According to the creator of the win shares stat, the margin of error for a team’s total is approximately 2.75.

Here are our results


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http://lakerspulse.net/blog-post/predicting-the-lakers-2015-16-win-total/

 

I like this. 34-37 is my projection. If we could add 1 more piece; say an Ariza type at the 3, I think we could finish at or above .500...

 

I don't know how the win shares stat is calculated, but I agree with this analysis. I think Clarkson's number will be closer to 4, and I am hoping for a Kobe that can give us 5 or 6.

A lot of us penciled in 35-40 wins at best. We're also potentially still missing a a piece or 2 that hopefully bumps that number up.

 

36 wins in the West is like a 50 win season in the East

 

I don't like projecting stats (any stats) of a group that has not played together. It sells clicks I guess.

There are too many variables in team sports to predict through individual stats a team outcome. Add in that we will have 3 guys in the rotation that haven't finished one NBA game. Competition isn't the same as the past "Win Shares" were accumulated etc....

It's more of a guess than a mathematical analysis. What variable is used for chemistry? Which one for playing out of position?

Some statistical information is relevant IMHO. There have been a 15 or so instances of teams improving 20 or more games in a season. Almost all of them added an all time great at that point. So if one of our youngsters is a Bird, Kareem, Melo, Robinson or Duncan we may get 20 more wins.

A few teams on the list of improving more than 20 had significant players returning from injury and a one or two added several lesser players to complete a team. A significant coaching change was involved in a couple.

Looking at that I'd still say 40 wins is a stretch and just about everything would have to go right. While I like the kids I don't see an all time great in that group. 32 to 35 would be a successful season I'd guess. We should know more in December about what we have.

 

we'll be a .500 team after starting off slow, or I'll go outside and walk around naked in my neighborhood.

It's ok, my neighbors don't mind.

Spoiler

 

This is a good point. I'd wonder how many wins we'd get if we were in the East...

 

If russell is capable of playing starter minutes, randle and Clarkson somehow become starter-caliber players and Kobe and Hibbert are healthy and effective ( a LOT of iffs) can this team win 40? Or is there not enough talent on the swuad

 

I wholeheartedly agree real. I think the estimations are low but based on the last 3 years, I've learned to temper my expectations. I don't want to be let down again, and I feel like that's what Laker nation is doing here.

I think the big question mark is Kobe. Can he play 60-65 games and stay around 20/5/5 with limited TO? I still think the Hibbert acquisition is huge, even if we aren't strong in defenders by position. Kobe will play better defense with an anchor like Hibbert solely based on the fact that he'll try to let his man beat him to only have Roy there waiting to wreak havoc. Randle is arguably a quick enough guy to play great help defense, though his defensive IQ was lacking in summer league.

Clarkson as we've seen is definitely a force. He'll take usage away from Kobe, as will Russell. I think Randle needs to focus on being an elite defender, if he does that we might be in good shape. We have enough offense but as bonk was saying, these young guns value offense too much...he might not want to emphasize defense.

 

Hill was a net negative last year; he clogged up lanes, shot poorly from the perimeter, and his defense left a lot to be desired; just totally inexcusably awful at certain points last season. I'm so glad he's gone. I liked Boozer and thought he really found his rhythm with the bench unit, and I'll miss Ed Davis.

That said, I'll take our 4 and 5 rotation this year as opposed to last year with Hibbert, Black, Kelly, Nance, and a hopefully signed Upshaw. Kelly was a disaster at the 3 last season. If he's playing the 4, he's actually productive. We'll have a full year of Black, too. We acquired him in December, but he'll be here from the start, get a full training camp in, and has proved he can at least play at the NBA level.

Lin was inconsistent last year; although, I think he wasn't properly utilized by Scott. Ellington? I liked his game. A decent rotational player. Will Lou make up for Lin and Ellington's productivity? No. Nevertheless, if he can be more consistent than Lin and give us more productivity than Ellington, I think that helps.

Jabari will also help and less the blow of Ellington. He also proved he belong. Played a year in the D-league and played 19 games with the Lakers last year. As I said with Black, we have two guys who got very valuable experience last year playing that will help with going into next season. I think they'll both surprise us this season.

We still have needs and 9 wins is a lot especially in the West; it's that brutal. However, I think we can muster up at least 12-14 more wins.