Advanced Stats and Whatnot

Discussion in 'Lakers Discussion' started by trodgers, Oct 31, 2015.

  1. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    It's curious looking at these that as much as Randle has been jerked with and now is letting it affect his game, and as well as Nance has truly been playing, how is Randle still in these rankings holding such a large lead over him? What is or are the areas where he is falling down in the comparative stats to account for that gap?
     
  2. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    The gap is in scoring and passing right now, and it's largely because of a VERY slow start.

    Randle's 5.5 Scoring Efficiency is better than the team average, and it's best among bigs (unless we include Kelly, who has a .04 lead on him). Nance's is up to 4.81, which is WELL below the team average. In fact, among people who actually play, only Hibbert is worse at 4.71.

    Randle also has a massive lead in terms of Passing Efficiency. His 2.34 is very good for a big. Nance is at 1.76, well below the team average. In fact, it's the worst rating except for Nick Young and Tarik Black.

    Nance has come on strong recently in Hustle, and he's now just a hair behind Randle: 3.14 vs. 3.11.

    I think other stats reveal Randle has had a superior season, too, so this shouldn't be a surprise.

    Per Game
    Nance: 5.8, 4.8, 0.7
    Randle: 11.3, 9.6, 1.6
    -Randle is doubling him up.

    Per36
    Nance: 10.3, 8.7, 1.2
    Randle: 15.3, 13.0, 2.2
    -Even in terms of on-court production per minute, Randle is 1.5x what Nance is. Nance is a better defender, probably. Let's see when the 82games.com stats come out.

    Now, don't read TOO much into this, but check out Nance's progression by month:

    SCORING
    4.65
    4.75
    5.58

    PASSING
    1.70
    1.92
    (0.63) (No assists in two games)

    HUSTLING
    2.76
    3.14
    3.83

    OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
    54.1
    63.2
    78.9
     
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  3. LTLakerFan

    LTLakerFan - Lakers Legend -

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    Thank you! Great breakdown.

    Byron and Mitch should have someone explain it to them so they have a clue.

    I'm super impressed with Nance's game! Maddening that Scott jerks with his starting lineup but won't try playing them as 4 and 3 or 5 and 4s together. Picture Black at the 5, Randle at 4 and Nance at 3. Try it for crissakes. Throw it at GS and show them some Lakers small bully ball with Bass in the mix. He and Black go as hard as they can. I'd love to see it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2016
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  4. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    PG
    Huertas 72+++
    Russell 66
    Clarkson 60
    TEAM: 58
    --Don't crucify me about Huertas's rating. He looked like Hell, I know. He did, however, have one of his best games statistically. I presume if we have the defensive stats, he was toasted.

    WING
    Kobe 70
    Williams 68
    Clarkson 63
    Young 47-
    Peace 45-
    Nance 45
    Brown 32---
    TEAM: 60
    --ROUGH go for Anthony Brown.

    BIG
    Kelly 81++++++
    Bass 79
    Randle 76
    Hibbert 68-
    Sacre 63
    Nance 63+
    Black 61++++
    Peace 57-
    TEAM: 69

    Crazy stat: Nick Young has had assists in consecutive games ONCE this season.
     
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  5. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    PG
    Huertas 72
    Russell 67+
    Clarkson 60
    TEAM: 58

    WING
    Kobe 71
    Williams 68
    Clarkson 63
    Young 47
    Peace 45
    Nance 45
    Brown 29---
    TEAM: 60
    --Getting rougher for Brown.

    BIG
    Kelly 81
    Bass 80+
    Randle 75-
    Hibbert 68
    Sacre 63
    Nance 63
    Black 61
    Peace 57
    TEAM: 69
     
  6. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    Brown's numbers are staggeringly bad.
     
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  7. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff - Lakers Legend -

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    That's why he's a starter

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    PG
    Huertas 70--
    Russell 67
    Clarkson 60
    TEAM: 58

    WING
    Kobe 71
    Williams 70++
    Clarkson 63
    Young 47
    Peace 45
    Nance 45
    Brown 30+
    TEAM: 60
    --Sweet Lou gives us three players at the 70+ mark who aren't bigs.

    BIG
    Kelly 81
    Bass 80
    Randle 74-
    Hibbert 68
    Sacre 63
    Nance 63
    Black 61
    Peace 57
    TEAM: 69
    --Randle's scoring, once his greatest strength, has been a massive struggle for him of late.
     
  9. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    He's not taking shots anymore. He's trying TOO hard to fit in right now. I'm not sure why the team is completely going away from him as an offensive option. He's playing offense like Andrew Bogut.

    I appreciate him sacrificing for the team, but he's taking that too far in my opinion.
     
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  10. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    We're a laughably bad team in ISO situations, surrendering 0.97 PPP. I don't put a lot of stock in the defensive numbers of most Play Types, since defense is so based on rotations, but I think ISOs are a valid metric considering the nature of that play. Here's how the Lakers stack up.

    Defensive PPP in Isolation situations (min. 10 possessions)

    1) Anthony Brown.......0.20
    2) Metta World Peace...0.77
    3) Nick Young.............0.81
    LEAGUE AVERAGE....0.83
    4) Kobe Bryant...........0.86
    5) Lou Williams...........0.93
    6) Julius Randle..........0.93
    7) Brandon Bass.........0.94
    8) D'Angelo Russell.....1.00
    9) Roy Hibbert............1.08
    10) Larry Nance..........1.12
    11) Jordan Clarkson....1.15

    http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?t=175634&start=75

    Came and compiled from GoldenThroat on LG. Provided the link as well. Thought this would fit in here. If not, I can delete, Trodgers.
     
  11. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    PG
    Huertas 68--
    Russell 67
    Clarkson 60
    TEAM: 58

    WING
    Williams 71+
    Kobe 71
    Clarkson 63
    Young 47
    Peace 45
    Nance 45
    Brown 30
    TEAM: 60

    BIG
    Kelly 81
    Bass 80
    Randle 73-
    Hibbert 68
    Nance 64+
    Sacre 63
    Black 61
    Peace 57
    TEAM: 69
     
  12. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Nah; this is exactly the kind of thing that belongs here. Kobe's number is pretty fascinating. So is Nance's. Wonder what the recent trend is on that value.
     
  13. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    My Win Projection: 18.43
    Pythagorean: 18.86
     
  14. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff - Lakers Legend -

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    That's worse than our worst season ever. Also with Byron. Shocking, I know.
     
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  15. LaVarBallsDad

    LaVarBallsDad - Lakers Legend -

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    Gosh. And on top of all that, we have a good chance at losing our pick. If Nance continues to develop, and Brown can shoe he's an NBA player, I can stomach losing the pick.
     
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  16. sirronstuff

    sirronstuff - Lakers Legend -

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    But at least we had Nash for a few good years!!!
     
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  17. abeer3

    abeer3 - Lakers Legend -

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    I think the number of possessions matters here, though. for example, Clarkson is a small sg--maybe when teams have a post up guard, they go at him with success, but only a few teams do that. so, big payoff, but rare use. it's akin to when bruce bowen led the league in three point percentage: he wasn't the best shooter in the league, he just took the one shot he could make and only when it was wide open.

    in some ways, points given up per minute (vs. per possession) might be a more useful stat here. and it might say the same thing, but it's possible that it wouldn't.
     
  18. therealdeal

    therealdeal Moderator Staff Member

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    I know it was only an example, but Jordan is not a good one-on-one defender at this stage in his career. He's earnest and he gives a great effort, but he's just not very good as a one-on-one guy.
     
  19. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    PG
    Huertas 68
    Russell 67
    Clarkson 60
    TEAM: 58
    --The gap between Russell and Huertas is now 0.86, and Russell plays more against first stringers.

    WING
    Williams 71
    Kobe 71
    Clarkson 63
    Young 47
    Nance 46+
    Peace 45
    Brown 28--
    TEAM: 60
    --Sir Nance a Lot moving up the list after a slow start.

    BIG
    Kelly 84+++
    Bass 80
    Randle 73
    Hibbert 68
    Black 66+++++
    Nance 65+
    Sacre 63
    Peace 57
    TEAM: 69
    --Give Black some time, and look at him moving up the charts. He's an obvious mid-70s player when used appropriately.
     
  20. trodgers

    trodgers Administrator Staff Member

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    Trends, halfway point:

    JC on pace for 2500 minutes. During his age 23 season, that would mean that among Lakers only Kobe, Norm Nixon, Magic, Jerry West, and Nick the Quick have done that younger than Clarkson. That's a list.

    Clarkson is also on pace for 98 steals. If he could squeeze out 100, he would tie for the 8th youngest Laker to do that.

    Russell is on pace for 262 assists. He would be the youngest Laker with even 200 assists.

    Hibbert on pace for 134 blocks. He'd be the first Lake since 2012/13 to record 100 blocks, and he'd join Bynum, Turiaf, Gasol, and Howard as the only Lakers to do it in the past ten seasons.

    Kobe on pace for 1124 points. If he can top 1000 points, that would be the 16th time he would have accomplished the feat. He'd be tied for 4th all time with Havlicek. Above him: Duncan and two past Lakers (Kareem, Malone).

    Kobe is on pace for 222 assists. If he can top 200 assists, that will give him 15 such season, tying him for 9th all-time. Above him are a lot of past Lakers: Kareem, Payton, Malone, Nash, for instance.
     
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